5 ms·

And there are others that are much lower. It's also worth remembering that given many cases are asymptomatic, or are so mild that people may not see a doctor, t

And there are others that are much lower. It's also worth remembering that given many cases are asymptomatic, or are so mild that people may not see a doctor, the number of cases does not accurately reflect the number of infected people. So these mortality rates should not be read as an indicator of your chance of dying if you are infected with the virus. One reason that many people don't seem to be "taking this seriously" is because the narrative of people who keep fearmongering about COVID-19 just doesn't make sense. There are still direct flights from China to many countries, and they're not empty. Screening is mostly based on taking people's temperature with handheld devices that have twice registered my temperature as 32C (no, I wasn't rushed to a hospital). Where more reliable screening has been implemented, there have been many documented failures. Many quarantine protocols are voluntary / honour-based. People from cruise ships where they were exposed to others who were infected have dispersed worldwide with varying levels of monitoring (in some cases none). If this thing was half as deadly and easily-spread as continues to be claimed on the Internet, 200 new cases in Italy wouldn't be international news at this point.

allovernow 7y ago
Are they consistent with China's unprecedented response?
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  I assume you're being facetious, but regardless of early failings and a lack of transparency, it's hard to imagine any other country imposing a quarantine on a city the size of Wuhan in the manner they have, or building hospitals at the rate they have.
  - ethbro 7y ago
    I thought this article was interesting: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-and-blindness-authoritarianism/606922/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coron... Particularly the point about "Why build hospitals?" Because in strongly centralized, command political systems, grand projects are one of the few things done well. And so crisis management becomes "What can we build, to show we're taking it seriously?"
    - _-___________-_ 7y ago
      This makes a lot of sense. Even outside of centralised, command political systems many of the responses seem to be in the vein of "what can we do to show we're taking it seriously?" Many actions such as the travel restrictions have gone directly against public health advice, but are easy to implement and politically very successful.
  - tomjen3 7y ago
    That may be what GP means. I am only concerned for this because of the measures taken, especially in China.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    Facetious? 80% of China's GDP has been shut down for a month[1]. U.S. markets dropped another 3 percent today. The CDC tweeted today that people from "all sectors as well as people within their families" should prepare. Get your head out of the sand. The sooner people take this for the threat that it is and start stockpiling basic supplies, the less likely it will be that everyone runs to the store simultaneously. 1.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/coronavirus-more-of-china-extend-shutdown-accounting-for-80percent-of-gdp.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/coronavirus-more-of-china-ex...
    - _-___________-_ 7y ago
      Prepare for the virus or the economic damage caused by the extreme measures taken in response to the supposed risk of the virus?
ummonk 7y ago
Frankly, much of the world (aside from China) seems to be taking this way too lightly. Those 200 new cases could easily turn into thousands in a matter of weeks. It seems to spread so rapidly that you really don't want it to take root in your country.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  That's the thing though: it either doesn't spread very rapidly except in very specific circumstances, or it has way more asymptomatic/mild cases than is commonly claimed. Otherwise we would already see far more confirmed cases than there are. Given the massive economic damage that the measures already taken are inflicting, I for one am very glad that it's not being "taken more seriously" than it is. I have predicted, and continue to predict, that when we're looking back at this, the response to COVID-19 will have done far more damage than the virus.
  - ummonk 7y ago
    What do you consider “very rapid”? It has spread significantly faster than the swine flu epidemic did in its first two months. > I have predicted, and continue to predict, that when we're looking back at this, the response to COVID-19 will have done far more damage than the virus. That is rather likely and would mean that the containment efforts worked. Remember that the economic cost of containment shouldn’t be compared against the damage caused by the virus, but by the counterfactual damage that would be caused by an uncontained pandemic (which would be absolutely catastrophic given that the case fatality rate rises to the mid single digit percentages once healthcare infrastructure is saturated).
    - _-___________-_ 7y ago
      The problem is that many of the measures taken in the name of "containment" (travel restrictions for example) are likely ineffective and are explicitly disrecommended by public health experts. They are just easy measures to implement quickly, and are effective politically because they play to the population's pre-existing tendencies toward xenophobia.

allovernow 7y ago

Are they consistent with China's unprecedented response?

_-___________-_ 7y ago
I assume you're being facetious, but regardless of early failings and a lack of transparency, it's hard to imagine any other country imposing a quarantine on a city the size of Wuhan in the manner they have, or building hospitals at the rate they have.
- ethbro 7y ago
  I thought this article was interesting: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-and-blindness-authoritarianism/606922/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coron... Particularly the point about "Why build hospitals?" Because in strongly centralized, command political systems, grand projects are one of the few things done well. And so crisis management becomes "What can we build, to show we're taking it seriously?"
  - _-___________-_ 7y ago
    This makes a lot of sense. Even outside of centralised, command political systems many of the responses seem to be in the vein of "what can we do to show we're taking it seriously?" Many actions such as the travel restrictions have gone directly against public health advice, but are easy to implement and politically very successful.
- tomjen3 7y ago
  That may be what GP means. I am only concerned for this because of the measures taken, especially in China.
- allovernow 7y ago
  Facetious? 80% of China's GDP has been shut down for a month[1]. U.S. markets dropped another 3 percent today. The CDC tweeted today that people from "all sectors as well as people within their families" should prepare. Get your head out of the sand. The sooner people take this for the threat that it is and start stockpiling basic supplies, the less likely it will be that everyone runs to the store simultaneously. 1.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/coronavirus-more-of-china-extend-shutdown-accounting-for-80percent-of-gdp.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/coronavirus-more-of-china-ex...
  - _-___________-_ 7y ago
    Prepare for the virus or the economic damage caused by the extreme measures taken in response to the supposed risk of the virus?

ummonk 7y ago

Frankly, much of the world (aside from China) seems to be taking this way too lightly. Those 200 new cases could easily turn into thousands in a matter of weeks. It seems to spread so rapidly that you really don't want it to take root in your country.

_-___________-_ 7y ago
That's the thing though: it either doesn't spread very rapidly except in very specific circumstances, or it has way more asymptomatic/mild cases than is commonly claimed. Otherwise we would already see far more confirmed cases than there are. Given the massive economic damage that the measures already taken are inflicting, I for one am very glad that it's not being "taken more seriously" than it is. I have predicted, and continue to predict, that when we're looking back at this, the response to COVID-19 will have done far more damage than the virus.
- ummonk 7y ago
  What do you consider “very rapid”? It has spread significantly faster than the swine flu epidemic did in its first two months. > I have predicted, and continue to predict, that when we're looking back at this, the response to COVID-19 will have done far more damage than the virus. That is rather likely and would mean that the containment efforts worked. Remember that the economic cost of containment shouldn’t be compared against the damage caused by the virus, but by the counterfactual damage that would be caused by an uncontained pandemic (which would be absolutely catastrophic given that the case fatality rate rises to the mid single digit percentages once healthcare infrastructure is saturated).
  - _-___________-_ 7y ago
    The problem is that many of the measures taken in the name of "containment" (travel restrictions for example) are likely ineffective and are explicitly disrecommended by public health experts. They are just easy measures to implement quickly, and are effective politically because they play to the population's pre-existing tendencies toward xenophobia.