2 ms·
This is already at least as bad as the Spanish Flu in terms of R0 and CFR. Yes, unprecedented. Spanish Flu has an R0 of about 2[1]. Current published estimates
by allovernow 7y ago
This is already at least as bad as the Spanish Flu in terms of R0 and CFR. Yes, unprecedented.
Spanish Flu has an R0 of about 2[1]. Current published estimates for 2019-ncov are 2.3-3.8 for this paper [1] and there's another floating around which gets as high as 6-8.
1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404/
2. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220300539 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122...
Look at the rate of spread in Korea and Italy recently. Where numbers aren't being cooked like in China. 3 weeks from first infection to Nationwide pandemic. Unprecedented.
This is the first time something so virulent has struck humans living with this kind of density. This will have massive ramifications for global geopolitics because it will show the weakness of centralizing production in third world countries and becoming dependent. Rumors abound in china about elites, professors, researchers, lawyers speaking out against the government. 2500 of them allegedly signed a petition demanding free speech. This virus will test the resilience and ingenuity of the human race.
Unprecedented.