5 ms·

Tesla Is Slowly Pushing Germany into Recession

24 points by ykm 7y ago

aazaa 7y ago
> Problem is, electric cars don’t require the same workforce to build. As Reuters writes, ‘electric cars provide less assembly work than combustion engine vehicles.’ This may be the most interesting factor of all, but the article doesn't cite much in the way of support. AFAICT, the electrical system on a Tesla is an entirely new level of complexity, but the rest of the hardware is vastly simplified. No engine. No fuel system. No emissions system or multi-state/country-specific modifications. The battery placement gives the car a low center of gravity, which simplifies safety engineering. If so, then it's far from clear how German car makers survive this. They'll need to not only retool factories built a great cost (often, for diesel, which is now almost certainly dead), but will need workers with some very different skillsets. This seems more like a problem for any country with an established auto industry. It's a great opportunity for countries without one.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- PHGamer 7y ago
  electric wont kill diesel as towing still kills the battery fast. once electrics can tow long distances then I will worry for the tech. (in consumer of course disel is dead and in some states yes, electric is better . ie southern cali and if your rich enough to have solar panels )
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    Medium Duty: https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck Class 8 Semi: https://www.tesla.com/semi https://www.tesla.com/semi We tow light trailers just fine with our Model S and Model X by the way; replaced our combustion pickup truck.
  - sunstone 7y ago
    Ok, you might have a five year window max for that to remain a valid point; batteries continue to improve year by year.
    - Arbalest 7y ago
      Even if it is 15, that's still not long enough for many regulatory environments to respond effectively.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
spurdoman77 7y ago
"The Tesla Model 3 is outselling every major German rival in US sales and in Europe. Source: CleanTechnica" The article is written by a tesla shill, who also pulls out facts out of his ass. In the US this is true as per the graph, but in europe while model 3 is selling well it is not the best selling, at least yet.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  Non-CleanTechnica posts. https://insideevs.com/news/395418/december-tesla-model-3-sales-europe/ https://insideevs.com/news/395418/december-tesla-model-3-sal... (Tesla Model 3 Was #3 Best Selling Car In Europe In December) https://insideevs.com/news/400134/tesla-model-3-demand-europe-high/ https://insideevs.com/news/400134/tesla-model-3-demand-europ... (Tesla Model 3 In Europe Is Mostly 'Sold Out For The Quarter') Tesla is supply constrained, every Model 3 built is being sold.
  - Fjolsvith 7y ago
    I.e. If they could build them faster they would likely be the best selling.
abc_lisper 7y ago
Germany is not just about cars. They make lot of machinery for various industries. While it is reasonable to assume that German auto industry is under pressure, it is a stretch to say Tesla caused it. While the YoY revenues for MB/BMW may be down, they are not too bad, they are at 2013-2014 level. Not to say about all the commercial vehicles BMW and VW sell, like vans, suvs and buses. This article is concentrating on small sliver of economy, and applying to all of it.
- Arbalest 7y ago
  Perhaps. Simply having watched "Who killed the electric car" it was clear that it was already heading in that direction, even if it was snubbed at that time. Tesla was the agent in making electric cars cool though. It's true from a wider perspective that Tesla is a replaceable part of that timeline and perhaps inevitable, but the fact remains that it was Tesla who got the mindshare that has moved this forward.
raarts 7y ago
I think a more likely reason is the absurdly high energy prices in Germany (for example double the price of France) which affects all industries and having been rising sharply the last 15 years.
Sohcahtoa82 7y ago
A better headline: German car manufacturers failed to adapt to changing market demands and Tesla is eating their lunch.
Barrin92 7y ago
This is a very sweeping statement about the German economy that I find hard to comprehend. The global car market in 2019 was 80 million vehicles sold. 1 million of which were electric cars. 300k of which were Teslas. The automotive industry in Germany constitutes about 5% of the German GDP. Now losing a tiny fraction of that market to Tesla is not going to push the country into a recession, and it's not even going to bother the carmakers much in the short term. the EV question for Germany is going to be an issue 10-15 years down the line, not now, and the reason for sluggish economic growth are more broadly related to the contraction in international trade due to the trade tensions between Europe, the US and China which has not just hit the German car market, but the entire industrial sector.
- vardump 7y ago
  > the EV question for Germany is going to be an issue 10-15 years down the line, not now, The EV question is going to occur the moment consumer sentiment turns into considering ICE vehicles a risky purchase. Like for fear of resale value or high fossil fuel taxes. Or simply because equivalent EV purchase price becomes lower than ICE vehicle. Societal tipping point can occur long before EVs become dominant. If I had to guess, I'd say it'll occur before 2025. Eventually, people will be worried about availability of gas stations.
  - anotherman554 7y ago
    What percent of people who don't own garages or driveways are willing to buy electric cars?
    - natch 7y ago
      However many are not ignorant. In our apartment building, 50% are Teslas. No charging on site. But it takes time for people to learn the options available to them. Options which only increase as time goes by.
  - Barrin92 7y ago
    Current prediction is that by 2040 EV will be about 20% of the global market share while total number of cars will go from about 1 billion now to 2 billion then. So there's plenty of room to grow for conventional engines. Mind you the large car manufacturers don't make the lion share of their income in Norway or Sweden where environmentally conscious wealthy people buy Teslas. The lions share of the future car market is the developing world.

24 points by ykm 7y ago

> Problem is, electric cars don’t require the same workforce to build. As Reuters writes, ‘electric cars provide less assembly work than combustion engine vehicles.’ This may be the most interesting factor of all, but the article doesn't cite much in the way of support. AFAICT, the electrical system on a Tesla is an entirely new level of complexity, but the rest of the hardware is vastly simplified. No engine. No fuel system. No emissions system or multi-state/country-specific modifications. The battery placement gives the car a low center of gravity, which simplifies safety engineering. If so, then it's far from clear how German car makers survive this. They'll need to not only retool factories built a great cost (often, for diesel, which is now almost certainly dead), but will need workers with some very different skillsets. This seems more like a problem for any country with an established auto industry. It's a great opportunity for countries without one.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
PHGamer 7y ago
electric wont kill diesel as towing still kills the battery fast. once electrics can tow long distances then I will worry for the tech. (in consumer of course disel is dead and in some states yes, electric is better . ie southern cali and if your rich enough to have solar panels )
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  Medium Duty: https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck Class 8 Semi: https://www.tesla.com/semi https://www.tesla.com/semi We tow light trailers just fine with our Model S and Model X by the way; replaced our combustion pickup truck.
- sunstone 7y ago
  Ok, you might have a five year window max for that to remain a valid point; batteries continue to improve year by year.
  - Arbalest 7y ago
    Even if it is 15, that's still not long enough for many regulatory environments to respond effectively.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

spurdoman77 7y ago

"The Tesla Model 3 is outselling every major German rival in US sales and in Europe. Source: CleanTechnica" The article is written by a tesla shill, who also pulls out facts out of his ass. In the US this is true as per the graph, but in europe while model 3 is selling well it is not the best selling, at least yet.

toomuchtodo 7y ago
Non-CleanTechnica posts. https://insideevs.com/news/395418/december-tesla-model-3-sales-europe/ https://insideevs.com/news/395418/december-tesla-model-3-sal... (Tesla Model 3 Was #3 Best Selling Car In Europe In December) https://insideevs.com/news/400134/tesla-model-3-demand-europe-high/ https://insideevs.com/news/400134/tesla-model-3-demand-europ... (Tesla Model 3 In Europe Is Mostly 'Sold Out For The Quarter') Tesla is supply constrained, every Model 3 built is being sold.
- Fjolsvith 7y ago
  I.e. If they could build them faster they would likely be the best selling.

abc_lisper 7y ago

Germany is not just about cars. They make lot of machinery for various industries. While it is reasonable to assume that German auto industry is under pressure, it is a stretch to say Tesla caused it. While the YoY revenues for MB/BMW may be down, they are not too bad, they are at 2013-2014 level. Not to say about all the commercial vehicles BMW and VW sell, like vans, suvs and buses. This article is concentrating on small sliver of economy, and applying to all of it.

Arbalest 7y ago
Perhaps. Simply having watched "Who killed the electric car" it was clear that it was already heading in that direction, even if it was snubbed at that time. Tesla was the agent in making electric cars cool though. It's true from a wider perspective that Tesla is a replaceable part of that timeline and perhaps inevitable, but the fact remains that it was Tesla who got the mindshare that has moved this forward.

raarts 7y ago

I think a more likely reason is the absurdly high energy prices in Germany (for example double the price of France) which affects all industries and having been rising sharply the last 15 years.

Sohcahtoa82 7y ago

A better headline: German car manufacturers failed to adapt to changing market demands and Tesla is eating their lunch.

Barrin92 7y ago

This is a very sweeping statement about the German economy that I find hard to comprehend. The global car market in 2019 was 80 million vehicles sold. 1 million of which were electric cars. 300k of which were Teslas. The automotive industry in Germany constitutes about 5% of the German GDP. Now losing a tiny fraction of that market to Tesla is not going to push the country into a recession, and it's not even going to bother the carmakers much in the short term. the EV question for Germany is going to be an issue 10-15 years down the line, not now, and the reason for sluggish economic growth are more broadly related to the contraction in international trade due to the trade tensions between Europe, the US and China which has not just hit the German car market, but the entire industrial sector.

vardump 7y ago
> the EV question for Germany is going to be an issue 10-15 years down the line, not now, The EV question is going to occur the moment consumer sentiment turns into considering ICE vehicles a risky purchase. Like for fear of resale value or high fossil fuel taxes. Or simply because equivalent EV purchase price becomes lower than ICE vehicle. Societal tipping point can occur long before EVs become dominant. If I had to guess, I'd say it'll occur before 2025. Eventually, people will be worried about availability of gas stations.
- anotherman554 7y ago
  What percent of people who don't own garages or driveways are willing to buy electric cars?
  - natch 7y ago
    However many are not ignorant. In our apartment building, 50% are Teslas. No charging on site. But it takes time for people to learn the options available to them. Options which only increase as time goes by.
- Barrin92 7y ago
  Current prediction is that by 2040 EV will be about 20% of the global market share while total number of cars will go from about 1 billion now to 2 billion then. So there's plenty of room to grow for conventional engines. Mind you the large car manufacturers don't make the lion share of their income in Norway or Sweden where environmentally conscious wealthy people buy Teslas. The lions share of the future car market is the developing world.