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So basically, you’re choosing to ignore everything we actually know, and replace it with your theories and FUD. For the record? China is definitely, absolutely

by irq11 7y ago

So basically, you’re choosing to ignore everything we actually know, and replace it with your theories and FUD. For the record? China is definitely, absolutely, positively under-reporting the infection rate. They have admitted it. They know that there are many mild cases that are not being counted. Among other things, this means that the commonly cited fatality rates are a gross overestimate, and would be much lower if we could count all of the mild and asymptomatic cases.

pmoriarty 7y ago
"China is definitely, absolutely, positively under-reporting the infection rate." They also seem to be underreporting the fatalities, by (for example) counting them as not caused by COVID-19 when they may well be. Because both infection rates and fatalities are likely being underreported, and because we don't know by how much they are being underreported, it's premature to draw conclusions as to the severity of this disease.
- irq11 7y ago
  No, this isn’t likely at all. The reason they are undercounting cases is because the cases not being counted are mild. If some of those mild cases go on to die, it’s pretty unlikely that it’s due to misdiagnosed severe atypical pneumonia. Absolutely no reputable sources have advanced this theory, just people who are scaring each other on HN and reddit. To summarize: undercounting mild cases is definitely happening. Undercounting of covid deaths is extremely unlikely to be happening. Therefore, we know that the current death rates are overestimates of the real values. These are facts.
  - pmoriarty 7y ago
    You are stating your own probability estimates. Those aren't facts except to the extent that it may be a fact that you do believe them. Otherwise probability estimates and guesses about what China is or isn't doing and why aren't facts... they're just that: guesses. Thanks for sharing them, though. It's always nice to hear the reasons for another person's opinion.

by irq11 7y ago

pmoriarty 7y ago

"China is definitely, absolutely, positively under-reporting the infection rate." They also seem to be underreporting the fatalities, by (for example) counting them as not caused by COVID-19 when they may well be. Because both infection rates and fatalities are likely being underreported, and because we don't know by how much they are being underreported, it's premature to draw conclusions as to the severity of this disease.

irq11 7y ago
No, this isn’t likely at all. The reason they are undercounting cases is because the cases not being counted are mild. If some of those mild cases go on to die, it’s pretty unlikely that it’s due to misdiagnosed severe atypical pneumonia. Absolutely no reputable sources have advanced this theory, just people who are scaring each other on HN and reddit. To summarize: undercounting mild cases is definitely happening. Undercounting of covid deaths is extremely unlikely to be happening. Therefore, we know that the current death rates are overestimates of the real values. These are facts.
- pmoriarty 7y ago
  You are stating your own probability estimates. Those aren't facts except to the extent that it may be a fact that you do believe them. Otherwise probability estimates and guesses about what China is or isn't doing and why aren't facts... they're just that: guesses. Thanks for sharing them, though. It's always nice to hear the reasons for another person's opinion.