Ironically, I think that's exactly backwards. Average Joes actually have a chance of getting this right. Institutions are the ones that essentially can't, becau

Ironically, I think that's exactly backwards. Average Joes actually have a chance of getting this right. Institutions are the ones that essentially can't, because if they treated pandemics correctly in the past several decades, they'd be defunded for wasting money on the fat tail events that could have happened, but didn't, so clearly, they don't need that money. You're thinking in terms of people; you need to think in terms of organizations, which are in some ways just people writ large, but in other very important ways, are not just people writ large. It would be completely plausible and understandable that the majority of individuals in the WHO or CDC are aware of some truly bad thing in progress even as the organization is telling everyone not to worry and just stay calm at all costs. It's hard to grok, but it's the way it is.