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If the author is right, how long will it take to get there? I've been working in the field for 25 years. Frankly what I do today isn't that much different than
by irrational 7y ago
If the author is right, how long will it take to get there? I've been working in the field for 25 years. Frankly what I do today isn't that much different than what I did 25 years ago and we are busy trying to hire more people who do the same types of things. I'll probably retire in the next 15-20 years. Will this wholesale change proposed by the author take place within that time frame? Based on past experience I doubt it.
- Traster 7y agoTo add to this: In my career I've personally witnessed so many instances of people saying "Well, this can all be automated..." and then starting enormous projects to automate a process that is currently the sole focus of literally hundreds of engineers. As if the reason there are hundreds of engineers doing this job is that all those guys are just idiots. The result is these massively ambitious projects that promise senior management the world, drag on forever, often justifying themselves with hand-optimized toy examples to show progress. In the end the actual problem is very obviously intractable and years of progress are wasted. It might be true that eventually we can solve "implementing cross-platform UIs in the general case" but we could also be literally 100 years away from achieving that, and in the mean time the fact that it's theoretically possible is worthless.
- justinhj 7y agoI think it is a question of degree. AGI could be 100 years or 1000 years away; maybe it's something beyond our capabilities entirely. But we will probably find ways to augment our own programming tasks to the extent that what humans need to work on is a moving target.