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It's been over 100 years since the world has had a pandemic. It is frankly entirely predictable that we don't really know what to do when one happens, and that

by jerf 7y ago

It's been over 100 years since the world has had a pandemic. It is frankly entirely predictable that we don't really know what to do when one happens, and that we'll collectively be generally complacent until it is on where ever our doorstep happens to be. I'm not one with a high opinion of global governance anyhow, but even if it was competent it would be incompetent, because the competent thing to do for so long has been to assume "not going to be a pandemic". There isn't really a solution to these sorts of fat-tail outcomes; you can't spend trillions planning for them all the time because even if you do, your funding will be cut, but then when the time comes, you won't be prepared.

blub 7y ago
"It is frankly entirely predictable that we don't really know what to do when one happens, and that we'll collectively be generally complacent until it is on where ever our doorstep happens to be." Maybe your average Joe wouldn't know what to do, but if the leaders of the organization which is supposed to globally manage such situations don't really know what do to, then they should all be replaced. That's literally their job.
- jerf 7y ago
  Ironically, I think that's exactly backwards. Average Joes actually have a chance of getting this right. Institutions are the ones that essentially can't, because if they treated pandemics correctly in the past several decades, they'd be defunded for wasting money on the fat tail events that could have happened, but didn't, so clearly, they don't need that money. You're thinking in terms of people; you need to think in terms of organizations, which are in some ways just people writ large, but in other very important ways, are not just people writ large. It would be completely plausible and understandable that the majority of individuals in the WHO or CDC are aware of some truly bad thing in progress even as the organization is telling everyone not to worry and just stay calm at all costs. It's hard to grok, but it's the way it is.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
mytailorisrich 7y ago
There have been a few pandemics in the last 100 years... A very recent one being the 2009 flu pandemic (swine flu). HIV is an ongoing pandemic.

by jerf 7y ago

blub 7y ago

"It is frankly entirely predictable that we don't really know what to do when one happens, and that we'll collectively be generally complacent until it is on where ever our doorstep happens to be." Maybe your average Joe wouldn't know what to do, but if the leaders of the organization which is supposed to globally manage such situations don't really know what do to, then they should all be replaced. That's literally their job.

jerf 7y ago
Ironically, I think that's exactly backwards. Average Joes actually have a chance of getting this right. Institutions are the ones that essentially can't, because if they treated pandemics correctly in the past several decades, they'd be defunded for wasting money on the fat tail events that could have happened, but didn't, so clearly, they don't need that money. You're thinking in terms of people; you need to think in terms of organizations, which are in some ways just people writ large, but in other very important ways, are not just people writ large. It would be completely plausible and understandable that the majority of individuals in the WHO or CDC are aware of some truly bad thing in progress even as the organization is telling everyone not to worry and just stay calm at all costs. It's hard to grok, but it's the way it is.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

mytailorisrich 7y ago

There have been a few pandemics in the last 100 years... A very recent one being the 2009 flu pandemic (swine flu). HIV is an ongoing pandemic.