3 ms·

I'm not trying to fear-monger here, so please don't read that as my intent. Are you sure though? An "outbreak" is detected by someone having symptoms, by whic

I'm not trying to fear-monger here, so please don't read that as my intent. Are you sure though? An "outbreak" is detected by someone having symptoms, by which time they've infected others. If you're an in area with lots of travelers, by the time you have an outbreak, it's already moved on. I'm watching South Korea - they have plenty of travel, a good population, and an effective government. If they can contain it, that's a good sign, if not, likely a portent of what the western world can expect if carriers become more numerous. So far too early to say, but that's where I'm looking. (And I'm no expert at all, so if anyone has reasons that I'm looking in the wrong place as a bellweather, please share). My real issue is the lack of good info. We've gotten an R0, but I've not heard anyone express confidence in the results of infection (another commenter suggested 20% require respiratory assistance, but is that of flat infected or of those that are detected as infected in part BECAUSE their symptoms are serious?)

almost_usual 7y ago
Vietnam detected a presence outside of Hanoi and quarantined an entire town of 10,000 over a week ago. There haven’t been any new cases since. https://news.yahoo.com/vietnam-quarantines-village-10-000-075838068.html https://news.yahoo.com/vietnam-quarantines-village-10-000-07... They are now quarantining all travelers from South Korea or denying them entry. The country is known for operating a ‘brutal’ but efficient quarantine.
Filligree 7y ago
> another commenter suggested 20% require respiratory assistance, but is that of flat infected or of those that are detected as infected in part BECAUSE their symptoms are serious? The latter. Unfortunately we don't know what fraction of cases are detected, but it's believed to be around 10%.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  Interesting in this context is to look at the postmortem of the previous pandemic in 2009, the number of cases initially confirmed and the final tally over the same period once all the facts were in. The relevant wikipedia bit: "A flu follow-up study done in September 2010, found that "the risk of most serious complications was not elevated in adults or children."[31] In a 5 August 2011 PLoS ONE article, researchers estimated that the 2009 H1N1 global infection rate was 11% to 21%, lower than what was previously expected.[32] However, by 2012, research showed that as many as 579,000 people could have been killed by the disease, as only those fatalities confirmed by laboratory testing were included in the original number, and meant that many of those without access to health facilities went uncounted. The majority of these deaths occurred in Africa and Southeast Asia. Experts, including the WHO, have agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, much higher than the initial death toll." From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

almost_usual 7y ago

Vietnam detected a presence outside of Hanoi and quarantined an entire town of 10,000 over a week ago. There haven’t been any new cases since. https://news.yahoo.com/vietnam-quarantines-village-10-000-075838068.html https://news.yahoo.com/vietnam-quarantines-village-10-000-07... They are now quarantining all travelers from South Korea or denying them entry. The country is known for operating a ‘brutal’ but efficient quarantine.

Filligree 7y ago

> another commenter suggested 20% require respiratory assistance, but is that of flat infected or of those that are detected as infected in part BECAUSE their symptoms are serious? The latter. Unfortunately we don't know what fraction of cases are detected, but it's believed to be around 10%.

jacquesm 7y ago
Interesting in this context is to look at the postmortem of the previous pandemic in 2009, the number of cases initially confirmed and the final tally over the same period once all the facts were in. The relevant wikipedia bit: "A flu follow-up study done in September 2010, found that "the risk of most serious complications was not elevated in adults or children."[31] In a 5 August 2011 PLoS ONE article, researchers estimated that the 2009 H1N1 global infection rate was 11% to 21%, lower than what was previously expected.[32] However, by 2012, research showed that as many as 579,000 people could have been killed by the disease, as only those fatalities confirmed by laboratory testing were included in the original number, and meant that many of those without access to health facilities went uncounted. The majority of these deaths occurred in Africa and Southeast Asia. Experts, including the WHO, have agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, much higher than the initial death toll." From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic