4 ms·

Yes, mechanical ventilators and in most cases, supplemental oxygen for roughly 18% of patients. We can expect CFR in the US to be fairly low (approx 2%) as lon

Yes, mechanical ventilators and in most cases, supplemental oxygen for roughly 18% of patients. We can expect CFR in the US to be fairly low (approx 2%) as long as the availability of these resources permits treatment for all who need it. After saturation, however, the CFR will move asymptotically toward approx 15%. Medical system saturation is believed to be the main reason the CFR in Hubei is much worse than other provinces. The US has about 62k mechanical ventilators, about half of which are already occupied at any given time, and half of the available ones are purpose-built for infants in NICUs. So let's assume we begin to have a real problem above (62k/4)/0.18 == 86k simultaneous US cases. I'd assume oxygen supplies should be easy to scale up. No idea about scaling up the manufacture of ventilators, or if the (much more numerous, and cheaper) CPAP machines in the US could be used as stand-ins. Perhaps someone more familiar with these devices can chime in.

paganel 7y ago
> After saturation, however, the CFR will move asymptotically toward approx 15%. > Medical system saturation is believed to be the main reason the CFR in Hubei is much worse than other provinces. This would practically be a Denial of Service Attack on any health system, no matter the country in which that health system is based in. Which is why it is so important to try to contain the virus spread before we get to the "move asymptotically toward approx 15%" phase.
JshWright 7y ago
CPAP is definitely a viable intervention for ARDS. Some percentage of patients will still end up needing intubation/ventilation, but CPAP is a good way to prevent that in some percentage of cases (esp if used pretty "aggressively" to support the patient while they're still able to breathe on their own, if they get to the point where they can't breathe for themselves effectively enough, then CPAP isn't going to do anything for them)

paganel 7y ago

> After saturation, however, the CFR will move asymptotically toward approx 15%. > Medical system saturation is believed to be the main reason the CFR in Hubei is much worse than other provinces. This would practically be a Denial of Service Attack on any health system, no matter the country in which that health system is based in. Which is why it is so important to try to contain the virus spread before we get to the "move asymptotically toward approx 15%" phase.

JshWright 7y ago

CPAP is definitely a viable intervention for ARDS. Some percentage of patients will still end up needing intubation/ventilation, but CPAP is a good way to prevent that in some percentage of cases (esp if used pretty "aggressively" to support the patient while they're still able to breathe on their own, if they get to the point where they can't breathe for themselves effectively enough, then CPAP isn't going to do anything for them)