3 ms·
> Does the big counter at the top include the large number of people who contracted the disease, but never progressed past a mild stage, and so never reported i
by qiqitori 7y ago
> Does the big counter at the top include the large number of people who contracted the disease, but never progressed past a mild stage, and so never reported it to their doctor?
The big counter is based on official stats reported by the various countries and is equal to the numbers published by the WHO. Obviously, nobody knows the number of people who had it but didn't report it. You could do random sampling and get an estimate for the particular population that you tested, but let's forget about that for a moment.
The WHO's fatality estimate may or may not turn out correct at some point for the entire outbreak, but sadly there is no denying that the number isn't correct for the people who were tested positive a couple weeks ago, and the WHO published their estimate a couple weeks ago too.
- squiggleblaz 7y ago> You could do random sampling and get an estimate for the particular population that you tested, but let's forget about that for a moment. If there was some benefit to the disaster that was the Diamond Princess, I guess it was that we have a pretty good idea about the range of disease symptoms. The various evacuees too - living in quarantine till they get the disease or don't.
- JshWright 7y ago> Obviously, nobody knows the number of people who had it but didn't report it. Just because we don't know the exact number doesn't mean there aren't ways to estimate. My point is that estimating a mortality rate involves a lot more than simply doing a single arithmetic operation.