4 ms·

It seems odd that there are no cases reported in Laos, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situat

It seems odd that there are no cases reported in Laos, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200223-sitrep-34-covid-19.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... Possibly these countries have no way of monitoring and reporting COVID-19? In which case we are likely to have new, large clusters added in the coming weeks.

mantap 7y ago
The thing is, although COVID-19 has a long incubation period in some cases, in many cases it has a short one. And about 15-20% of people will end up in hospital. So it can only spread under the radar for a limited period of time before it becomes obvious. The symptoms are well known by this point, dry cough, fever, shortness of breath.
- Merrill 7y ago
  Detecting small numbers of COVID-19 cases against the larger background of flu and other respiratory illnesses is not easy. It's quite likely to go undetected clinically until there is a fairly large number of unexplained pneumonia deaths of related people in a specific location. By this time there has been a lot of local exposure and spread. "Problems with CDC coronavirus test delay expanded U.S. screening" - https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/20/cdc-coronavirus-116529 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/20/cdc-coronavirus-116...
  - mantap 7y ago
    Yes, a small number of cases could go unnoticed. But you were talking about large clusters. Say 100 people are infected and 15 turn up at hospital with difficulty breathing. For at least one of them, a doctor is going to take a history and notice the characteristic progression (this disease is the most famous disease in the world right now), then report it to their health authority. The large % of cases that require hospitalisation is a terrifying aspect of COVID-19, but it does increase the chance of detection.
    - swsieber 7y ago
      Yes, at that point several large clusters will appear within days because of how fast it spreads.
thrower123 7y ago
I am somewhat baffled that there have been essentially no reports of this disease in India.

mantap 7y ago

The thing is, although COVID-19 has a long incubation period in some cases, in many cases it has a short one. And about 15-20% of people will end up in hospital. So it can only spread under the radar for a limited period of time before it becomes obvious. The symptoms are well known by this point, dry cough, fever, shortness of breath.

Merrill 7y ago
Detecting small numbers of COVID-19 cases against the larger background of flu and other respiratory illnesses is not easy. It's quite likely to go undetected clinically until there is a fairly large number of unexplained pneumonia deaths of related people in a specific location. By this time there has been a lot of local exposure and spread. "Problems with CDC coronavirus test delay expanded U.S. screening" - https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/20/cdc-coronavirus-116529 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/20/cdc-coronavirus-116...
- mantap 7y ago
  Yes, a small number of cases could go unnoticed. But you were talking about large clusters. Say 100 people are infected and 15 turn up at hospital with difficulty breathing. For at least one of them, a doctor is going to take a history and notice the characteristic progression (this disease is the most famous disease in the world right now), then report it to their health authority. The large % of cases that require hospitalisation is a terrifying aspect of COVID-19, but it does increase the chance of detection.
  - swsieber 7y ago
    Yes, at that point several large clusters will appear within days because of how fast it spreads.

thrower123 7y ago

I am somewhat baffled that there have been essentially no reports of this disease in India.