5 ms·
> This virus is unprecedented I think you need to read up on your history.
by akie 7y ago
> This virus is unprecedented
I think you need to read up on your history.
- tome 7y agoIf you have particularly useful historical information to hand then it would probably better to share it rather than hint at its existence.
- throwaway8941 7y agoHere's a useful index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- WJW 7y agoEveryone who had history in high school has historical information about this. There have been numerous plagues throughout history with higher infectivity, higher lethality, and both relatively and absolutely higher death counts. Don't put the burden of looking up simple and easily findable information on other posters when you can easily google it yourself.
- tome 7y agoThere is a lot of misinformation out there too, and not everyone has the skills to "easily Google" for something outside of their sphere of competence. It would be helpful if those who do have hard facts to share do so directly. That's much more efficient than hoping that everyone will simply discover the facts as a matter of course.
- varjag 7y ago…and many of these would have infectivity and lethality similar to coronavirus if same standard of sanitary, containment effort and intensive care was available then.
- jamesrcole 7y ago> Everyone who had history in high school has historical information about this I don't recall any such information. There's people on this site of all different ages, who grew up in all sorts of different places. How do you know what their high-school history covered? In my school, history was mandatory in the first year of high-school, and I think it might have been in the second year as well. Hardly anyone did it as a subject for the remainder of their high-school years. Needless to say, the content taught in those first 1-2 years barely even scratched the surface of historical topics.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- saiya-jin 7y agoWhat kind of backwardish 3rd world country are you from that you never heard in school terms like 'black death', 'spanish flu'? Even if you didn't, I've noticed it in practically all possible media hundreds of times in all possible topics.
- jamesrcole 7y agoRegarding your second paragraph, I never said that I’d never heard the terms. I said that they weren’t covered in high school history for me. There’s so many topics that can be covered in high-school history classes, and so little actual aggregate time for those classes - why would you expect those topics be amongst them? Also, why do you think that criticising such history classes, and the country they're in, somehow negates the point i made?
- allovernow 7y agoYou should read about R0 and CFR estimates for recent publications our of China. Conservative estimates put this well past Spanish Flu territory. That doesn't even get into the various rumors coming from the weaker papers.
- JimDabell 7y agoThe Spanish Flu infected a quarter of the world's population and killed 50 million people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
- heyflyguy 7y agoThis virus, coupled with modern day speed of travel *Could be unprecedented. I don't enjoy your snark, I think this is a very serious issue!
- bilekas 7y agoThe comment was not snark, it was based on your hyperbolic statement that this is unprecedented. But whatever doctor, like any coronavirus, hygiene and good considerate practices will help. The mortality rate is still around 2%-ish and hugely dependent on the health condition of the patient at time of contracting. Its annoying, its serious and it's spreading for sure. But it is not Armageddon-scale unprecedented contagion.
- heyflyguy 7y agoI didn't make the original comment.
- allovernow 7y agoThere are less than 100,000 ICU beds in the United States. ≈15% of cases in healthy individuals require critical care. With current R0 it will not take long to fill those beds and experience the chaos that is bring down the Chinese Empire. Their GDP is shut down. Why do you think stocks tanked 4% today? At the very least we're already talking the start of a potential global recession because of a virus. If nothing else this is shaping up to be an event which will define a generation before it's all over.
- puranjay 7y agoIt seems unprecedented in my lifetime, which, in case of matters of health, is all I care about. Spanish Flu might have killed 100M but that doesn't affect me. This thing does.
- allovernow 7y agoThis is already at least as bad as the Spanish Flu in terms of R0 and CFR. Yes, unprecedented. Spanish Flu has an R0 of about 2[1]. Current published estimates for 2019-ncov are 2.3-3.8 for this paper [1] and there's another floating around which gets as high as 6-8. 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404/ 2. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220300539 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122... Look at the rate of spread in Korea and Italy recently. Where numbers aren't being cooked like in China. 3 weeks from first infection to Nationwide pandemic. Unprecedented. This is the first time something so virulent has struck humans living with this kind of density. This will have massive ramifications for global geopolitics because it will show the weakness of centralizing production in third world countries and becoming dependent. Rumors abound in china about elites, professors, researchers, lawyers speaking out against the government. 2500 of them allegedly signed a petition demanding free speech. This virus will test the resilience and ingenuity of the human race. Unprecedented.