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aggregate demand has recovered Wow. Ok, I lean left and you lean right so obviously we're going to differ on some things. But, conceptually, you'd think those

aggregate demand has recovered Wow. Ok, I lean left and you lean right so obviously we're going to differ on some things. But, conceptually, you'd think those things would all be values-related things. In this case what you're saying conflicts with my mental model of the world. The basic "reality" that I live in. I don't have a point to make, just expressing how weird it is to me to see someone write that.

yummyfajitas 16y ago
I stand by the reality of my statement. Here is data on production: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO Here is employment: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS See the disconnect? Lets focus specifically on Durable Goods, since we have a decent measure of their demand (not just their production). The recovery here is incomplete, but it's we are about halfway from trough to peak. Durable goods demand: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER Durable goods production: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IPDCONGD http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IPDCONGD Durable goods employment: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DMANEMP http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DMANEMP It doesn't surprise me that what I'm saying conflicts with your model of the world. It conflicts with my old model, and nukes my favorite possible solution (tax cuts) as well. But the data is the data, and all we can do is try to build new models which fit it. The economy has changed, and our old models don't work very well anymore. We need new models.
- davidmathers 16y ago
  we are about halfway from trough to peak That sounds reasonable. It was the implication of full recovery that sounded crazy to my mental model.
  - yummyfajitas 16y ago
    In terms of total production we have fully recovered and grown beyond our peak. It's only industrial production that hasn't fully recovered.

yummyfajitas 16y ago

I stand by the reality of my statement. Here is data on production: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO Here is employment: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS See the disconnect? Lets focus specifically on Durable Goods, since we have a decent measure of their demand (not just their production). The recovery here is incomplete, but it's we are about halfway from trough to peak. Durable goods demand: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER Durable goods production: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IPDCONGD http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IPDCONGD Durable goods employment: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DMANEMP http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DMANEMP It doesn't surprise me that what I'm saying conflicts with your model of the world. It conflicts with my old model, and nukes my favorite possible solution (tax cuts) as well. But the data is the data, and all we can do is try to build new models which fit it. The economy has changed, and our old models don't work very well anymore. We need new models.

davidmathers 16y ago
we are about halfway from trough to peak That sounds reasonable. It was the implication of full recovery that sounded crazy to my mental model.
- yummyfajitas 16y ago
  In terms of total production we have fully recovered and grown beyond our peak. It's only industrial production that hasn't fully recovered.