5 ms·
10% is dead / recovered. Don’t look at dead / infected, that’s skewed by an exponential infection rate.
by new_realist 7y ago
10% is dead / recovered. Don’t look at dead / infected, that’s skewed by an exponential infection rate.
- whatshisface 7y agoDead/recovered is also skewed because if someone is going to die, they will die before the illness has "run its course," whereas someone who is going to recover will have it for longer before they count for their statistic. As a result it is also skewed by the exponential growth, albeit in the opposite direction. I really feel like none of the statistics I am seeing are satisfying...
- cameldrv 7y agoThat's not clear. Many people are getting antivirals and clearing the disease in a few days.
- whatshisface 7y agoPresumably there are also people who die abnormally early. Unfortunately I have not seen what we really need to see: a breakdown of dead/recovered by day since infection. Without it there is no way to accurately assess the deathrate in an environment where new people are quickly falling ill.
- jdkee 7y agoThere is no evidence to date that anti-retrovirals are successful at treating this infection.
- chroem- 7y agoI'm sorry, but that's just plain wrong. The first US case at Providence Everett got well in a few days thanks to antivirals.
- cameldrv 7y agoMany people in China have been treated. There is an ongoing trial that is supposed to have results in a couple of weeks. Patients in the U.S., Korea, and Thailand have all been treated with antivirals and dramatically improved within a day or two. This was released Thursday: https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S2213260020300795.pdf https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S22132600203...
- abandonliberty 7y agoThis Chinese study used 28-day mortality rate. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2... The best measure will be something of this sort, with a sufficient duration to catch most of the fatalities.
- 6510 7y agoIt assumes we know the amount of infected people.
- Retric 7y agoWe have very accurate numbers for surprisingly large group due to the cruse ship. As of 20 February 634 infected including 328 asymptomatic cases. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_c... Adjusting for the delay between infection and first symptoms a relatively small percentage of people avoided symptoms.
- ericb 7y agoThat's a sample population biased toward the elderly, though.
- 6510 7y ago80% were age 60 or over. Normal is 11%.
- ekianjo 7y agoPeople stuck on the same ship 24/7 is not very representative of actual daily life.
- icegreentea2 7y agoHow are you doing this adjustment?