7 ms·

COVID-19 makes ~20% seriously ill and 10% dead. Influenza kills about, what, 2 out of every 100,000? Don't get me wrong, the flu killed my aunt in her early 5

COVID-19 makes ~20% seriously ill and 10% dead. Influenza kills about, what, 2 out of every 100,000? Don't get me wrong, the flu killed my aunt in her early 50s, but COVID-19 is much worse. Beyond the immediate medical consequences, there is also the societal reaction and potential overreaction. The world economy has been poised for a pullback and this just might trigger the next global recession(my money is on that happening, even if we find a vaccine next week). Like always, it's a good idea to have a disaster plan in place. Make sure you have a few weeks of critical medications and food on hand. Help those around you put the current events into perspective, help them stay calm, and help them prepare.

zzzzzzzza 7y ago
my understanding is 2% dead (think that number is being borne out in both italy and s korea), which is still much more lethal than the flu
- huonpine 7y ago
  Your probably both right 10% if you get put in a big room on a bed with just basic med care and 2% with the best hospital care we are currently able to provide (antiviral pumped oxygen ect).
- eveningcoffee 7y ago
  It is 2% dead if you assume that all today infected will recover in the end. It is much more pessimistic when you do not have such assumption but project current dead to number of infected about 2-3 weeks ago.
Vomzor 7y ago
I think it would help people understand this is is worse than the flu if we start calling it sars 2.0. Because that’s what it is, sars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...
- TheOperator 7y ago
  People had the same dismissive attitude towards SARS which turned out to be much less deadly than the seasonal flu. I am a betting man and say that this year Coronavirus won't become as big as the flu this year.
  - Vomzor 7y ago
    SARS had a mortality rate of 10 %. The flu is 0.1 %
    - Zenst 7y ago
      Yes, though factor in how many get it. In this case say 100 people got SAR - 10 people die Now Flu - 1000 people get that and - same net result. Lets face it, how many got SARS in total - less than 10k How many people catch the flu each year? - millions litterly millions. But as with most of these - it is overall health and underlying preexisting conditions that can and do skew statistics and not all countries log things to the same standard.
      - usaar333 7y ago
        You are forgetting that highly aggressive measures are put in place to fight SARS. If you did what China is doing now to deal with flu, you'd drastically cut transmission rates.
      - Vomzor 7y ago
        We got lucky last time. Does it seem logical to you that China would put half the country, 750 million people, on lockdown and crash the economy if it was just some flu equivalent? China’s actions speak for itself.
    - ekianjo 7y ago
      How many people you know ever got Sars? Now how many people you know ever got the flu? That is literally the major difference betweena killer that makes headlines and a silent killer that no one notices.
Barrin92 7y ago
>COVID-19 makes ~20% seriously ill and 10% dead COVID-19 death rates in China are about 2-3% and significantly lower outside of China. (less than one percent). Probably due to the healthcare systems in the Hubei region being pushed to its limits. Bad flu seasons in the US generally have a fatality rate of about 0.2% and infect about 30 million people annually, killing about 60000. So even if COVID-19 cannot be contained and will linger around it will likely not be as deadly as influenza.
- new_realist 7y ago
  10% is dead / recovered. Don’t look at dead / infected, that’s skewed by an exponential infection rate.
  - whatshisface 7y ago
    Dead/recovered is also skewed because if someone is going to die, they will die before the illness has "run its course," whereas someone who is going to recover will have it for longer before they count for their statistic. As a result it is also skewed by the exponential growth, albeit in the opposite direction. I really feel like none of the statistics I am seeing are satisfying...
    - cameldrv 7y ago
      That's not clear. Many people are getting antivirals and clearing the disease in a few days.
      - whatshisface 7y ago
        Presumably there are also people who die abnormally early. Unfortunately I have not seen what we really need to see: a breakdown of dead/recovered by day since infection. Without it there is no way to accurately assess the deathrate in an environment where new people are quickly falling ill.
      - jdkee 7y ago
faitswulff 7y ago
It's more like 3% dead, according to Johns Hopkins: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

zzzzzzzza 7y ago

my understanding is 2% dead (think that number is being borne out in both italy and s korea), which is still much more lethal than the flu

huonpine 7y ago
Your probably both right 10% if you get put in a big room on a bed with just basic med care and 2% with the best hospital care we are currently able to provide (antiviral pumped oxygen ect).
eveningcoffee 7y ago
It is 2% dead if you assume that all today infected will recover in the end. It is much more pessimistic when you do not have such assumption but project current dead to number of infected about 2-3 weeks ago.

Vomzor 7y ago

I think it would help people understand this is is worse than the flu if we start calling it sars 2.0. Because that’s what it is, sars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...

TheOperator 7y ago
People had the same dismissive attitude towards SARS which turned out to be much less deadly than the seasonal flu. I am a betting man and say that this year Coronavirus won't become as big as the flu this year.
- Vomzor 7y ago
  SARS had a mortality rate of 10 %. The flu is 0.1 %
  - Zenst 7y ago
    Yes, though factor in how many get it. In this case say 100 people got SAR - 10 people die Now Flu - 1000 people get that and - same net result. Lets face it, how many got SARS in total - less than 10k How many people catch the flu each year? - millions litterly millions. But as with most of these - it is overall health and underlying preexisting conditions that can and do skew statistics and not all countries log things to the same standard.
    - usaar333 7y ago
      You are forgetting that highly aggressive measures are put in place to fight SARS. If you did what China is doing now to deal with flu, you'd drastically cut transmission rates.
    - Vomzor 7y ago
      We got lucky last time. Does it seem logical to you that China would put half the country, 750 million people, on lockdown and crash the economy if it was just some flu equivalent? China’s actions speak for itself.
  - ekianjo 7y ago
    How many people you know ever got Sars? Now how many people you know ever got the flu? That is literally the major difference betweena killer that makes headlines and a silent killer that no one notices.

Barrin92 7y ago

>COVID-19 makes ~20% seriously ill and 10% dead COVID-19 death rates in China are about 2-3% and significantly lower outside of China. (less than one percent). Probably due to the healthcare systems in the Hubei region being pushed to its limits. Bad flu seasons in the US generally have a fatality rate of about 0.2% and infect about 30 million people annually, killing about 60000. So even if COVID-19 cannot be contained and will linger around it will likely not be as deadly as influenza.

new_realist 7y ago
10% is dead / recovered. Don’t look at dead / infected, that’s skewed by an exponential infection rate.
- whatshisface 7y ago
  Dead/recovered is also skewed because if someone is going to die, they will die before the illness has "run its course," whereas someone who is going to recover will have it for longer before they count for their statistic. As a result it is also skewed by the exponential growth, albeit in the opposite direction. I really feel like none of the statistics I am seeing are satisfying...
  - cameldrv 7y ago
    That's not clear. Many people are getting antivirals and clearing the disease in a few days.
    - whatshisface 7y ago
      Presumably there are also people who die abnormally early. Unfortunately I have not seen what we really need to see: a breakdown of dead/recovered by day since infection. Without it there is no way to accurately assess the deathrate in an environment where new people are quickly falling ill.
    - jdkee 7y ago

faitswulff 7y ago

It's more like 3% dead, according to Johns Hopkins: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...