That's OK, I'd monitor JP Morgan's bets now that they are onboard. I just want there to be real, direct cost (positive or negative) be attached to the probabili

That's OK, I'd monitor JP Morgan's bets now that they are onboard. I just want there to be real, direct cost (positive or negative) be attached to the probability that the prediction is accurate. That would be vastly preferable to the current situation where there's no downside for the researcher for predicting incorrectly, and no upside to predicting correctly. In fact, given the purported seriousness of the situation, this should be structured such that "USGS researchers" who are correct most of the time would be "wallowing in cash", and those who are not would be ejected from the field.