4 ms·

Thanks for your insight! If not from the seafood market, is it possible to speculate (in an informed way) of what the source may have been? When novel viruses b

by wpasc 7y ago

Thanks for your insight! If not from the seafood market, is it possible to speculate (in an informed way) of what the source may have been? When novel viruses break into human populations, is some form of animal contact generally the culprit? Is something like a bat sneezing near you (I have no idea if bats sneeze) with an airborne virus sufficient to transfer to a human?

cjbprime 7y ago
> Is something like a bat sneezing near you (I have no idea if bats sneeze) with an airborne virus sufficient to transfer to a human? I think the theory for SARS went something like -- lots of live animals together in a market, bat guano gets on some fruit, a civet eats guano-laced fruit, a person eats the civet later. Doesn't have to be simple transmission.
zed88 7y ago
Chinese have been known to eat all kind of exotic wild animals for medicinal and recreational reasons. The government may be trying to curb this, but a large portion of Chinese are still rural and food superstitions are rife, the regulation is not that easy I suppose. https://youtu.be/rbHxeOQA1Mc https://youtu.be/rbHxeOQA1Mc
chrisco255 7y ago
There's a level 4 virology research center in Wuhan, which means it studies the most dangerous pathogens in the world. This facility has been collecting SARS-like virus samples from bat populations and other animal populations for years. Some are speculating that it may have escaped the lab.
- sohkamyung 7y ago
  That is very speculative and currently not accepted. See this HN discussion and the paper [1] [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22352908 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22352908
  - chrisco255 7y ago
    Not accepted by who? It is speculative, but seeing as we don't have hard evidence of the source, it remains a very valid theory.
    - sohkamyung 7y ago
      Here's a quote from this article [1]: > A group of 27 prominent public health scientists from outside China is pushing back against a steady stream of stories and even a scientific paper suggesting a laboratory in Wuhan, China, may be the origin of the outbreak of COVID-19. “The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and misinformation around its origins,” the scientists, from nine countries, write in a statement published online by The Lancet yesterday. [1] https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/scientists-strongly-condemn-rumors-and-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-coronavirus https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/scientists-strongly-...
      - chrisco255 7y ago
        Keyphrase: Health scientists OUTSIDE of China. They're not in China. They don't have the independence to investigate. They have no way to say one way or another. There has not been an independent, forensic investigation into the origins because the CCP controls everything in China.
        sohkamyung 7y ago
        A WHO team is just back from China and their assessment is that the outbreak is currently declining there and the numbers provided by China are reasonably accurate. Following are comments by WHO epidemiologist Bruce Aylward in the following articles: > He [Aylward] pointed to humped graphs of cases over time—they are the shape of an epidemic that has been hobbled, he said. Disease spread has been in decline since the beginning of the month, and doctors in China are honing their ability to treat patients. “If I had COVID-19, I’d want to be treated in China,” he said candidly. [1] > There’s plenty of reason to doubt the official numbers—Chinese officials initially covered up the virus and arrested whistle-blowers who tried to expose the outbreak. Aylward acknowledged these concerns on Monday, but added: “The decline that we see is real.” [2] [1] https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/coronavirus-spread-in-us-not-if-but-when-and-how-severe-cdc-says/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/coronavirus-spread-i... [2] https://www.wired.com/story/could-the-us-contain-a-coronavirus-outbreak/ https://www.wired.com/story/could-the-us-contain-a-coronavir...

by wpasc 7y ago

cjbprime 7y ago

> Is something like a bat sneezing near you (I have no idea if bats sneeze) with an airborne virus sufficient to transfer to a human? I think the theory for SARS went something like -- lots of live animals together in a market, bat guano gets on some fruit, a civet eats guano-laced fruit, a person eats the civet later. Doesn't have to be simple transmission.

zed88 7y ago

Chinese have been known to eat all kind of exotic wild animals for medicinal and recreational reasons. The government may be trying to curb this, but a large portion of Chinese are still rural and food superstitions are rife, the regulation is not that easy I suppose. https://youtu.be/rbHxeOQA1Mc https://youtu.be/rbHxeOQA1Mc

chrisco255 7y ago

There's a level 4 virology research center in Wuhan, which means it studies the most dangerous pathogens in the world. This facility has been collecting SARS-like virus samples from bat populations and other animal populations for years. Some are speculating that it may have escaped the lab.

sohkamyung 7y ago
That is very speculative and currently not accepted. See this HN discussion and the paper [1] [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22352908 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22352908
- chrisco255 7y ago
  Not accepted by who? It is speculative, but seeing as we don't have hard evidence of the source, it remains a very valid theory.
  - sohkamyung 7y ago
    Here's a quote from this article [1]: > A group of 27 prominent public health scientists from outside China is pushing back against a steady stream of stories and even a scientific paper suggesting a laboratory in Wuhan, China, may be the origin of the outbreak of COVID-19. “The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and misinformation around its origins,” the scientists, from nine countries, write in a statement published online by The Lancet yesterday. [1] https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/scientists-strongly-condemn-rumors-and-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-coronavirus https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/scientists-strongly-...
    - chrisco255 7y ago
      Keyphrase: Health scientists OUTSIDE of China. They're not in China. They don't have the independence to investigate. They have no way to say one way or another. There has not been an independent, forensic investigation into the origins because the CCP controls everything in China.
      - sohkamyung 7y ago
        A WHO team is just back from China and their assessment is that the outbreak is currently declining there and the numbers provided by China are reasonably accurate. Following are comments by WHO epidemiologist Bruce Aylward in the following articles: > He [Aylward] pointed to humped graphs of cases over time—they are the shape of an epidemic that has been hobbled, he said. Disease spread has been in decline since the beginning of the month, and doctors in China are honing their ability to treat patients. “If I had COVID-19, I’d want to be treated in China,” he said candidly. [1] > There’s plenty of reason to doubt the official numbers—Chinese officials initially covered up the virus and arrested whistle-blowers who tried to expose the outbreak. Aylward acknowledged these concerns on Monday, but added: “The decline that we see is real.” [2] [1] https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/coronavirus-spread-in-us-not-if-but-when-and-how-severe-cdc-says/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/coronavirus-spread-i... [2] https://www.wired.com/story/could-the-us-contain-a-coronavirus-outbreak/ https://www.wired.com/story/could-the-us-contain-a-coronavir...