3 ms·

still feel like I forgot a couple of things ...

• toomuchtodo 7y ago
  Structural demographic transition across the first world. This will lower productivity and labor participation rate, and will increase the reliance on social safety nets, which will likely be funded with debt and/or central bank intervention. Japan is the future for everyone, it’s just the time scale up for debate. In the US alone, 10k people turn 65 each day (retirement age for Medicare eligibility and their full retirement age for collecting Social Security).
  • DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
    should probably be on top of the list. probably increasingly hard to remedy with immigration given the political climate.
    • toomuchtodo 7y ago
      Fertility rate is below replacement rate worldwide except Africa and a handful of other countries. Even with immigration, it’s still somewhat zero sum (there’s only so much worldwide labor available, less so that can migrate). Even generous government and societal benefits (parental leave, cash transfer payments) have been unable to push the fertility rate up in developed/semi developed countries. It’s a good thing; the world has too many people to sustain everyone at first world standards, so a managed decline in population (while respecting the rights of existing humans) is optimal policy. https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate
  • tzs 7y ago
    Minor correction: your full retirement age depends on your year of birth. It's above 65 for almost everyone retiring today. It is only 65 for people born in 1937 or earlier. For people born in [1938, 1943] it goes up by 2 months every year. It is 66 for people born in [1943, 1954]. It then goes up 2 months per year until reaching 67 for people born in 1960 and later.
    • toomuchtodo 7y ago
      This correction is welcomed. Appreciate you contributing detail to my lazy statement.