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ingredients for a perfect storm: - crumbling of tightly integrated supply chains - global recession - financial systems (especially in EU) which have never b

ingredients for a perfect storm: - crumbling of tightly integrated supply chains - global recession - financial systems (especially in EU) which have never been reformed after 2008 - droughts, floods, locusts, and wildfires - immigration crisis - never-ending war in ME - rise of nationalism and xenophobia - rampant spreading of mis-/disinformation

DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
still feel like I forgot a couple of things ...
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  Structural demographic transition across the first world. This will lower productivity and labor participation rate, and will increase the reliance on social safety nets, which will likely be funded with debt and/or central bank intervention. Japan is the future for everyone, it’s just the time scale up for debate. In the US alone, 10k people turn 65 each day (retirement age for Medicare eligibility and their full retirement age for collecting Social Security).
  - DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
    should probably be on top of the list. probably increasingly hard to remedy with immigration given the political climate.
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      Fertility rate is below replacement rate worldwide except Africa and a handful of other countries. Even with immigration, it’s still somewhat zero sum (there’s only so much worldwide labor available, less so that can migrate). Even generous government and societal benefits (parental leave, cash transfer payments) have been unable to push the fertility rate up in developed/semi developed countries. It’s a good thing; the world has too many people to sustain everyone at first world standards, so a managed decline in population (while respecting the rights of existing humans) is optimal policy. https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate
  - tzs 7y ago
    Minor correction: your full retirement age depends on your year of birth. It's above 65 for almost everyone retiring today. It is only 65 for people born in 1937 or earlier. For people born in [1938, 1943] it goes up by 2 months every year. It is 66 for people born in [1943, 1954]. It then goes up 2 months per year until reaching 67 for people born in 1960 and later.
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      This correction is welcomed. Appreciate you contributing detail to my lazy statement.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
lazyjones 7y ago
> financial systems (especially in EU) which have never been reformed after 2008 https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/financial-reforms-and-their-progress/progress-financial-reforms_en https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-...
- DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
  Last year The Economist had a good article on that[1]. The EU looks very different depending on whether you look South or North. None of the Northern counties are in good shape right now (Germany, France) and its suppliers of labor from the South who are on the brink since years aren't going to weather this IMO. German and French voters sure won't be happy to bail them out when things become hard. [1] https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/01/05/the-euro-enters-its-third-decade-in-need-of-reform https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/01/05/the-euro-enter... > Southern discomfort At the same time, southerners feel they are bearing all the pain of recovery. The politics of monetary union is more febrile as a result. After eight years of eye-watering austerity, Greek GDP per person is still far below its level in 2007 in real terms (see chart 3). In 2015 Syriza, a left-wing party, came to power promising to end austerity, before spectacularly reversing course when it became clear that Greece needed a third bail-out.
  - v4dok 7y ago
    Why is he getting downvoted? That's a very real dichotomy that imo will be the reason of EU split if there is going to be one
ckdarby 7y ago
Lot of OPs points are subjective and some could always have been happening but with the hyper media we're more aware. IMO, number one thing should be the upcoming massive retirement population. First time where working population will be smaller than retiring population. Also, looks like the modeling done for retirement plans are based off equal or greater population for the next generation. Life expectancy longer than when these were implemented. Boomers struggling to sell their massive rural houses. Don't believe? Walk into a McDonald's and look behind the counter. You'd expect to see all these young inexperienced workers but majority of time I now see +45 workers back there.
WillPostForFood 7y ago
Pandemic?
Apocryphon 7y ago
Don't forget the hailstorms https://www.reddit.com/r/WTF/comments/f7g85v/hailstones_causing_locusts_to_drop_dead_out_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/WTF/comments/f7g85v/hailstones_caus...
braindead_in 7y ago
Great Depression.

DyslexicAtheist 7y ago

still feel like I forgot a couple of things ...

toomuchtodo 7y ago
Structural demographic transition across the first world. This will lower productivity and labor participation rate, and will increase the reliance on social safety nets, which will likely be funded with debt and/or central bank intervention. Japan is the future for everyone, it’s just the time scale up for debate. In the US alone, 10k people turn 65 each day (retirement age for Medicare eligibility and their full retirement age for collecting Social Security).
- DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
  should probably be on top of the list. probably increasingly hard to remedy with immigration given the political climate.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    Fertility rate is below replacement rate worldwide except Africa and a handful of other countries. Even with immigration, it’s still somewhat zero sum (there’s only so much worldwide labor available, less so that can migrate). Even generous government and societal benefits (parental leave, cash transfer payments) have been unable to push the fertility rate up in developed/semi developed countries. It’s a good thing; the world has too many people to sustain everyone at first world standards, so a managed decline in population (while respecting the rights of existing humans) is optimal policy. https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate
- tzs 7y ago
  Minor correction: your full retirement age depends on your year of birth. It's above 65 for almost everyone retiring today. It is only 65 for people born in 1937 or earlier. For people born in [1938, 1943] it goes up by 2 months every year. It is 66 for people born in [1943, 1954]. It then goes up 2 months per year until reaching 67 for people born in 1960 and later.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    This correction is welcomed. Appreciate you contributing detail to my lazy statement.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

lazyjones 7y ago

> financial systems (especially in EU) which have never been reformed after 2008 https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/financial-reforms-and-their-progress/progress-financial-reforms_en https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-...

DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
Last year The Economist had a good article on that[1]. The EU looks very different depending on whether you look South or North. None of the Northern counties are in good shape right now (Germany, France) and its suppliers of labor from the South who are on the brink since years aren't going to weather this IMO. German and French voters sure won't be happy to bail them out when things become hard. [1] https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/01/05/the-euro-enters-its-third-decade-in-need-of-reform https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/01/05/the-euro-enter... > Southern discomfort At the same time, southerners feel they are bearing all the pain of recovery. The politics of monetary union is more febrile as a result. After eight years of eye-watering austerity, Greek GDP per person is still far below its level in 2007 in real terms (see chart 3). In 2015 Syriza, a left-wing party, came to power promising to end austerity, before spectacularly reversing course when it became clear that Greece needed a third bail-out.
- v4dok 7y ago
  Why is he getting downvoted? That's a very real dichotomy that imo will be the reason of EU split if there is going to be one

ckdarby 7y ago

Lot of OPs points are subjective and some could always have been happening but with the hyper media we're more aware. IMO, number one thing should be the upcoming massive retirement population. First time where working population will be smaller than retiring population. Also, looks like the modeling done for retirement plans are based off equal or greater population for the next generation. Life expectancy longer than when these were implemented. Boomers struggling to sell their massive rural houses. Don't believe? Walk into a McDonald's and look behind the counter. You'd expect to see all these young inexperienced workers but majority of time I now see +45 workers back there.

WillPostForFood 7y ago

Pandemic?

Apocryphon 7y ago

Don't forget the hailstorms https://www.reddit.com/r/WTF/comments/f7g85v/hailstones_causing_locusts_to_drop_dead_out_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/WTF/comments/f7g85v/hailstones_caus...

braindead_in 7y ago

Great Depression.