3 ms·

Give me the numbers. People panic over everything imaginable. The only defense is logic. (which unfortunately is only a slow and long term defense) At this po

Give me the numbers. People panic over everything imaginable. The only defense is logic. (which unfortunately is only a slow and long term defense) At this point I feel I am more likely to win the lottery and get struck my lightning twice before I get this virus. And even then, what is the death rate for healthy adults? It's amazing how easily people freak out these days.

jacquesm 7y ago
At this point, yes. But that's not the way to look at this. The way to look at this is what will happen over the next couple of weeks/months and to what degree we can avoid community spreading once the virus achieves a foothold, which - sorry - at this point is mostly a matter of time. Containment can be done early on and if done effectively can get you back into your 'no need to worry' mode. But once containment has failed you are in different territory and will have to play a much more complex game with more substantial impact. So your present day chances of contracting this in the next 24 hours are looking pretty good but your chances of contracting this in the next couple of months are substantially better than winning the lottery or getting struck by lightning even once. Unless you live the life of a hermit. A vaccine would be quite handy, but we do not have one - yet , though that race is on - and even if we had it you still need to make it in quantity to be effective. A virus doesn't particularly care about whether you are able to think logically or not. It cares about contact between people and not killing its host too quickly. That way it improves its chances of spreading its genetic code.
- RobertRoberts 7y ago
  There is a lot I can do for my family and friends about helping them not be _irrationally_ afraid. Eliminating irrational fear is valuable. Spreading undue panic is reprehensible. What are the numbers? What is the risk equation? If we avoid these, then we are not speaking from knowledge but simply guessing and editorializing. Which tends towards panic, not rationality.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    Eliminating irrational fear is very valuable. But there is also something to be said for being rationally afraid: to try to put boundaries on how scary this thing really is and what the likely impact will be. Undue panic is 'we are all going to die, the end is neigh' kind of bs. But a measured response could easily be that it would be better to reduce travel if you do not really have to, avoid concentrations of people and so on. The numbers that we know so far are impressive enough that I believe those measures are warranted. 1-2% mortality, aerosolized infection confirmed, tactile infection confirmed, reasonably long incubation time, tests appear unreliable, virus now present in 25+ countries, with serious outbreaks in several of those. This is no longer in 'common flu' territory, nor is it in 'black plague' territory. Let's hope it stays that way and can be pushed back into the bottle again or that a vaccine is developed fast enough and produced in quantity enough that the bulk effects can be reduced.
- TechBro8615 7y ago
  > Unless you live the life of a hermit. Finally, my day has come. Who knew depression could be so beneficial?
X6S1x6Okd1st 7y ago
For healthy adults death from a pandemic is rare, but in a true pandemic large parts of society are expected to stop working. If you are only interested in your own well being (which is fairly uncommon, do you not have family or friends?) Then make sure you have stocks of food, water and small bills.
- RobertRoberts 7y ago
  The numbers are defense against "panic" not the disease. And are useful for everyone.

jacquesm 7y ago

At this point, yes. But that's not the way to look at this. The way to look at this is what will happen over the next couple of weeks/months and to what degree we can avoid community spreading once the virus achieves a foothold, which - sorry - at this point is mostly a matter of time. Containment can be done early on and if done effectively can get you back into your 'no need to worry' mode. But once containment has failed you are in different territory and will have to play a much more complex game with more substantial impact. So your present day chances of contracting this in the next 24 hours are looking pretty good but your chances of contracting this in the next couple of months are substantially better than winning the lottery or getting struck by lightning even once. Unless you live the life of a hermit. A vaccine would be quite handy, but we do not have one - yet , though that race is on - and even if we had it you still need to make it in quantity to be effective. A virus doesn't particularly care about whether you are able to think logically or not. It cares about contact between people and not killing its host too quickly. That way it improves its chances of spreading its genetic code.

RobertRoberts 7y ago
There is a lot I can do for my family and friends about helping them not be _irrationally_ afraid. Eliminating irrational fear is valuable. Spreading undue panic is reprehensible. What are the numbers? What is the risk equation? If we avoid these, then we are not speaking from knowledge but simply guessing and editorializing. Which tends towards panic, not rationality.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  Eliminating irrational fear is very valuable. But there is also something to be said for being rationally afraid: to try to put boundaries on how scary this thing really is and what the likely impact will be. Undue panic is 'we are all going to die, the end is neigh' kind of bs. But a measured response could easily be that it would be better to reduce travel if you do not really have to, avoid concentrations of people and so on. The numbers that we know so far are impressive enough that I believe those measures are warranted. 1-2% mortality, aerosolized infection confirmed, tactile infection confirmed, reasonably long incubation time, tests appear unreliable, virus now present in 25+ countries, with serious outbreaks in several of those. This is no longer in 'common flu' territory, nor is it in 'black plague' territory. Let's hope it stays that way and can be pushed back into the bottle again or that a vaccine is developed fast enough and produced in quantity enough that the bulk effects can be reduced.
TechBro8615 7y ago
> Unless you live the life of a hermit. Finally, my day has come. Who knew depression could be so beneficial?

X6S1x6Okd1st 7y ago

For healthy adults death from a pandemic is rare, but in a true pandemic large parts of society are expected to stop working. If you are only interested in your own well being (which is fairly uncommon, do you not have family or friends?) Then make sure you have stocks of food, water and small bills.

RobertRoberts 7y ago
The numbers are defense against "panic" not the disease. And are useful for everyone.