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In my opinion it isn’t wishful thinking at all. Software is getting more complex each year, yet the time to build complex software decreases due to existence of

In my opinion it isn’t wishful thinking at all. Software is getting more complex each year, yet the time to build complex software decreases due to existence of better libraries/tools/knowledge-base. So at the end of the day you can build more complex software with lesser amount of developers but there is a catch, and that is developers now need to be much more talented. Right now a good developer can easily develop what a team of 10 average developers could build 10 years ago. This is especially true in GameDev field. Right now there is a silent revolution going on with procedural art-work so that a good programmer/artist can create huge amount of content in very short-time but procedural art generation is really complicated. So if you are a talented developer you can compete with mid-sized companies right now! I believe it will get to a point in future that even a small team of talented developers will be able to out-compete companies with 100s of average developer. Large companies will have no option but to scale back and change their HR practices but large companies, like large ships, are harder to turn, hence some of them will definitely go bankrupt in near future.

ScottFree 7y ago
> Software is getting more complex each year, yet the time to build complex software decreases due to existence of better libraries/tools/knowledge-base. Which, in turn, drives the number of bugs and flaws way, way up, which drastically increases the number of developer hours and money spent trying to fix products that are constantly broken. This situation just gets worse over time because those "better" libraries/tools/knowledge-base make adding new bugs much, much faster than fixing them. Evernote is the best example of this I have ever seen. > So if you are a talented developer you can compete with mid-sized companies right now! If you're a talented developer, you can compete with what mid-sized companies were doing 10 years ago and large companies were doing 20 years ago. That's more than good enough to make a niche game that pays well, but it's still an order of magnitude or more off from what mid-sized companies make today, both in quality and revenue. > Large companies will have no option but to scale back and change their HR practices but large companies, like large ships, are harder to turn, hence some of them will definitely go bankrupt in near future. Unless they're being propped up. Twitter didn't turn a profit until 2018. They spent 12 years burning cash. Most companies would have gone under after their investors pulled their money when they hit year 5 without making a dime.

ScottFree 7y ago

> Software is getting more complex each year, yet the time to build complex software decreases due to existence of better libraries/tools/knowledge-base. Which, in turn, drives the number of bugs and flaws way, way up, which drastically increases the number of developer hours and money spent trying to fix products that are constantly broken. This situation just gets worse over time because those "better" libraries/tools/knowledge-base make adding new bugs much, much faster than fixing them. Evernote is the best example of this I have ever seen. > So if you are a talented developer you can compete with mid-sized companies right now! If you're a talented developer, you can compete with what mid-sized companies were doing 10 years ago and large companies were doing 20 years ago. That's more than good enough to make a niche game that pays well, but it's still an order of magnitude or more off from what mid-sized companies make today, both in quality and revenue. > Large companies will have no option but to scale back and change their HR practices but large companies, like large ships, are harder to turn, hence some of them will definitely go bankrupt in near future. Unless they're being propped up. Twitter didn't turn a profit until 2018. They spent 12 years burning cash. Most companies would have gone under after their investors pulled their money when they hit year 5 without making a dime.