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Clarke's law is catchy, but I don't buy it. Unfortunately, elderly scientists are unreliable in both positive and negative predictions, especially outside their
by me_again 16y ago
Clarke's law is catchy, but I don't buy it. Unfortunately, elderly scientists are unreliable in both positive and negative predictions, especially outside their specialty: for example, Luc Montagnier's recent hokum or Linus Pauling's vitamin C megadosage scheme.
- stcredzero 16y agoAll "unreliable predictions" stem from the same general mistakes. 1) Prognosticating outside of one's expertise should raise a red flag. 2) Predictions should not rely only on scientific principles, but also involve economic analysis. (Larry Niven once wrote something to the effect: Anyone can write about teleport booths, but it takes a good author to come up with "flash crowds.") 3) Absolute laws are not always so simple to apply as it would first seem. (Example: the Halting Problem does not preclude useful bug checking software, just perfect bug checking software.) Elder statesmen scientists aren't the only ones to make these mistakes. I posit that the common perception of reality is riddled with similar misapplication of fundamental knowledge. I also posit that there's huge profit potential hiding behind many such popular misapplications.