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Clarke's first law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; when he states that something i
by j_baker 16y ago
Clarke's first law:
When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; when he states that something is impossible, he is probably wrong.
- zepolen 16y agoWhat about: It's impossible to go faster than the speed of light?
- SoftwareMaven 16y agoBut it is possible to go faster than the speed of light. As space expands, it pushes the rest of space (and therefore its contents) apart, potentially faster than the speed of light.
- mkeblx 16y agoHence the "probably"'s.
- ecubyx 16y agoYou have to be careful in how you define speed before answering this question: do you mean group velocity or phase velocity? And faster than the local velocity of light or the value in vacuo? It is indeed possible for a particle to travel at a speed greater than the local phase velocity of light through a medium. This is what brings about Čerenkov radiation, which is that eerie blue glow associated with the core of nuclear reactors.
- ghostDancer 16y agoNot really scientific but a good quote ;- ) : No matter how fast light travels it finds the darkness has always got there first, and is waiting for it. ~Terry Pratchett
- me_again 16y agoClarke's law is catchy, but I don't buy it. Unfortunately, elderly scientists are unreliable in both positive and negative predictions, especially outside their specialty: for example, Luc Montagnier's recent hokum or Linus Pauling's vitamin C megadosage scheme.
- stcredzero 16y agoAll "unreliable predictions" stem from the same general mistakes. 1) Prognosticating outside of one's expertise should raise a red flag. 2) Predictions should not rely only on scientific principles, but also involve economic analysis. (Larry Niven once wrote something to the effect: Anyone can write about teleport booths, but it takes a good author to come up with "flash crowds.") 3) Absolute laws are not always so simple to apply as it would first seem. (Example: the Halting Problem does not preclude useful bug checking software, just perfect bug checking software.) Elder statesmen scientists aren't the only ones to make these mistakes. I posit that the common perception of reality is riddled with similar misapplication of fundamental knowledge. I also posit that there's huge profit potential hiding behind many such popular misapplications.
- kbutler 16y ago> Clarke's first law: > When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; when he states that something is impossible, he is probably wrong. Clarke's first law is an unnecessarily complicated version of: It's probably possible. kb
- endtime 16y agoYou're overgeneralizing a bit. What it actually reduces to is "if a distinguished but elderly scientist expresses an opinion about something, it's probably possible". The reason this is meaningful is that distinguished scientists tend not to express opinions on ridiculous crackpot ideas.
- bluesnowmonkey 16y agoCute but not true. TFA itself included several counter-examples. > Instead of a car in every garage, there will be a helicopter.... These 'copters' will be so safe and will cost so little to produce that small models will be made for teenage youngsters. These tiny 'copters, when school lets out, will fill the sky as the bicycles of our youth filled the prewar roads.
- ugh 16y agoThat quote is not from a scientist. Also, note the use of “almost certainly” and “probably” in the quote you are criticizing. (“TFA”?! Really?!)