5 ms·

rayiner, you cite poll numbers a lot -- "x% of y say they do|do not support z" -- which is good, it says a lot, but I want to bring something else to your atten

by pen2l 7y ago

rayiner, you cite poll numbers a lot -- "x% of y say they do|do not support z" -- which is good, it says a lot, but I want to bring something else to your attention, which I'm increasingly realizing is vitally important: personality, likability. I think pg has talked about this before too, one of great tests has been "is this person charismatic?" And further, that charismatic, assertive personalities can do wonders in changing and winning people's minds. No doubt Hillary would have won had she been more likable (or a man, America is still lagging behind when it comes to having a woman in charge). Sanders is more charismatic than Trump so he'll probably win, whatever the labels.

blast 7y ago
Oh hey, you raise a good point here. When it was Trump vs. Hillary I remember thinking this was a great test of pg's charisma theory, since it predicted Trump while nearly everything and everyone else was predicting Hillary. (Alan Lichtman's "keys" test also predicted Trump: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/tr...) But what would the charisma test say about Trump vs. Sanders? I hadn't thought about that one. If it's Trump vs. Bloomberg, that's as much a no-brainer as last time. But Trump vs. Sanders? Not so clear. You say Sanders is more charismatic than Trump, but many people would disagree. In an all-American context, I think Trump is probably more charismatic than Sanders, though by a smaller margin than with Hillary or Bloomberg. To really decide that, though, we'd have to get into definitions of charisma. Lichtman's system is interesting since, like pg's theory, it depends on fundamentals and ignores polls. Lichtman also includes charisma as one of his keys. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/12/this-professor-has-predicted-every-presidential-election-since-1984-hes-still-trying-to-figure-out-2016/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/12/th.... A quick look at his "13 keys" list suggests to me that Lichtman will probably predict a Trump win this year (even though he despises Trump), whether or not the challenger is charismatic. That's mostly because of economic indicators. If those change, the prediction probably changes. It will be interesting to see how Lichtman interprets his list this year.
- danenania 7y ago
  Trying to measure charisma is obviously very subjective, but I bet even if you asked Clinton supporters, many would admit that Trump is more charismatic than Hillary (it would be interesting to see a poll testing this). That's likely to be a very bad sign. I think you need it to at least be a toss up where reasonable people can disagree, and your own supporters should consider you the more charismatic one.
danenania 7y ago
Right, it's like if you found a poll asking "would you vote for a pro-Russia game show host who mocks disabled people?" with predictably negative results, ignored polls asking directly "would you vote for Trump?", and then tried to claim that as evidence that Trump could never win.

by pen2l 7y ago

blast 7y ago

Oh hey, you raise a good point here. When it was Trump vs. Hillary I remember thinking this was a great test of pg's charisma theory, since it predicted Trump while nearly everything and everyone else was predicting Hillary. (Alan Lichtman's "keys" test also predicted Trump: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/tr...) But what would the charisma test say about Trump vs. Sanders? I hadn't thought about that one. If it's Trump vs. Bloomberg, that's as much a no-brainer as last time. But Trump vs. Sanders? Not so clear. You say Sanders is more charismatic than Trump, but many people would disagree. In an all-American context, I think Trump is probably more charismatic than Sanders, though by a smaller margin than with Hillary or Bloomberg. To really decide that, though, we'd have to get into definitions of charisma. Lichtman's system is interesting since, like pg's theory, it depends on fundamentals and ignores polls. Lichtman also includes charisma as one of his keys. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/12/this-professor-has-predicted-every-presidential-election-since-1984-hes-still-trying-to-figure-out-2016/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/12/th.... A quick look at his "13 keys" list suggests to me that Lichtman will probably predict a Trump win this year (even though he despises Trump), whether or not the challenger is charismatic. That's mostly because of economic indicators. If those change, the prediction probably changes. It will be interesting to see how Lichtman interprets his list this year.

danenania 7y ago
Trying to measure charisma is obviously very subjective, but I bet even if you asked Clinton supporters, many would admit that Trump is more charismatic than Hillary (it would be interesting to see a poll testing this). That's likely to be a very bad sign. I think you need it to at least be a toss up where reasonable people can disagree, and your own supporters should consider you the more charismatic one.

danenania 7y ago

Right, it's like if you found a poll asking "would you vote for a pro-Russia game show host who mocks disabled people?" with predictably negative results, ignored polls asking directly "would you vote for Trump?", and then tried to claim that as evidence that Trump could never win.