3 ms·
Its like..imagine flu were twice as likely as it is now but 10x as deadly if you got it, especially if you're over 50. Is it nothing? No. Is it bubonic plague?
by lazylizard 7y ago
Its like..imagine flu were twice as likely as it is now but 10x as deadly if you got it, especially if you're over 50. Is it nothing? No. Is it bubonic plague? No. Can you catch it? Not at the moment unless you're in hubei? Its a bit like 90% of it is in hubei, 9% rest of china and 1% rest of the world..
Most of the problem is health systems cant scale for 2x flu in a short time.. But the world has a bit of time for prep since its mostly a chinese problem at the moment..
The rest of it is mostly economic fallout from secondary effects like travel restrictions and large scale quarantines(like the chinese have done). Unless you're in the travel and hospitality industry..theres probably little impact at the moment?
Why are you stressed?
- koheripbal 7y agoImagine if the flu caused irreperable lung damage.
- lazylizard 7y agoImagine striking lottery. Hubei has like 60 million people. Maybe 70k cases of covid-19.
- shard972 7y agoThat's because they stopped counting....
- pbourke 7y ago> Maybe 70k cases of covid-19. This is almost certainly not the case. From the MRC Centre, Imperial College, London: "the team estimate only about 1 in 19 people infected with COVID-19 in Wuhan are being tested for infection and therefore being reported as confirmed cases." https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-...
- throwbabythrow 7y ago“Not at the moment” is the operative term. Viruses are viral.
- pbourke 7y ago> The rest of it is mostly economic fallout from secondary effects like travel restrictions and large scale quarantines(like the chinese have done). Unless you're in the travel and hospitality industry..theres probably little impact at the moment? Let's just talk about economic impacts. Supply side: - a substantial portion of goods sold at retail in the US have some part of their supply chain in China. This includes goods made in China as well as those made in the US with some inputs from China. - a substantial number of people are employed in industries which sell retail goods that have a supply-chain dependency on China - a substantial number of people are employed in the US logistics industries (shipping, trucking, warehousing, etc) - China's economic output has been affected to the degree that their CO2 emissions are down 25% yoy [1] - Maersk, the world's largest shipping company, has been cancelling sailings due to the shutdowns in China [2] - firms will begin laying off employees in the above positions as the supply shock continues Demand side: - travel, hospitality, events, etc industries impacted - a disease epidemic can cause a severe drop in consumer spending. China car purchases are down 92% [3]. Consider also the impact on restaurants, sports, entertainment, child care, etc. Some portion of this change in behavior will be "long term" from the perspective of the business cycle (ie: delaying major purchases into the following year, etc) - firms will begin laying off employees in the above positions as the demand shock continues Finally: - consider that sustained, simultaneous supply and demand shocks may be hitting the world's economies in waves until this disease is mitigated [1] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-tempora... [2] https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/20/business/maersk-earnings-coronavirus/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/20/business/maersk-earnings-coro... [3] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/21/china-car-sales-tumble-by-92-per-cent-as-coronavirus-takes-toll-on-industry https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/21/china-car-s...