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Thanks - I’ll check them out. Plan B: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25 https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/

• IdeasVentured 7y ago
  While these are undoubtedly interesting reads, it should be noted that stock to flow as a predictive model is inherently flawed in that the demand side is not taken into account. There are many who like the model though, so well worth a read. It's also led to interesting efficient market hypothesis discussions which are worth looking into, I would recommend reading some of Nic Carter's work. Edit: 'not taken into account' is probably the wrong way to say it, rather it is assumed.
  • xiphias2 7y ago
    Inherently flawed compared to what model? Have you cross checked-it with other models? I think it's amazing how well a simple model with just 2 variables can explain the difference between Bitcoin price movements in the first few years and later years. Time based models are so much worse that it's crazy. I don't know any model that comes even close to it. Anyways stock-to-flow predicts that for a halving of money issuance the demand for the asset as expressed in market cap will be 8x. If course market cap is a strange and not perfect metric for demand, but that's still the best we have for comparing assets and asset classes.