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> But, if you're a family that needs to buy a minivan, while it's nice that the 2018 Grand Caravan ($26,300 in 2018) has many features the 1996 Grand Caravan ($

by awb 7y ago

> But, if you're a family that needs to buy a minivan, while it's nice that the 2018 Grand Caravan ($26,300 in 2018) has many features the 1996 Grand Caravan ($17,900 in 1996) did not, you still face the problem that you need an extra $8,500 to buy one. > A key assumption of our inflation-adjusted analyses is that old products are still available. Don't like / can't afford the $26K 2018 Grand Caravan, go buy the $18K 1996 one instead. Except you can't. But you can. Tons of used cars available within 50 miles of SF for under $15k (https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchresults.action/?prMx=15000&rd=50&searchSource=QUICK_FORM&stkTypId=28881&zc=94110 https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchresults.action/?prMx=150...) including a 2018 Dodge Caravan for $13,999. There are certainly good points in the thread, but this isn't one of them.

entee 7y ago
Right but there were tons of used cars in 1996 too that were available at a similar discount. The tweets are incomplete in that they fail to fully explain how CPI adjusts internally for quality improvement, but if we buy that (I think it’s reasonable) then cars, new and used, would be relatively more expensive today than in 1996
- awb 7y ago
  But a used 2018 minivan is a lot better than a new 1996 minivan and costs less even without adjusting for inflation. So, I can get a better car for less money today than I could in 1996. I think the issue might be status. Driving a brand new minivan in 1996 might have felt like you were getting ahead in life. Driving a used minivan today might feel like you're falling behind just because other newer and more expensive cars carry much more status.
  - everdrive 7y ago
    Absolutely -- in fact, I think including cars in this discussion is a massive red herring because car reliability and choice have improved so much. Yes, the Caravan may be more expensive, but for sure there are much cheaper and more reliable non-Caravan options out there.
    - defterGoose 7y ago
      | car reliability and choice have improved so much Citation needed. I've worked on my cars a lot and this is not borne out by my experience. Edit: I feel we can leave EVs out of this discussion until they're in at least 50% of households' driveways.
      - everdrive 7y ago
        Fair to leave EVs out. I probably wasn't specific enough, either. When I was a kid in the early 90s, a car making it to 100k was still considered a (possibly then outdated) achievement, whereas in the last 15 years, a car making it gracefully to 100k miles is simply expected. - It's possible that I'm old enough such that this point no longer seems novel. - I'll also concede that despite this, there are plenty of cars which aren't reliable which people buy. If I'd clarified better, I might have said that even if there are plenty of unreliable cars these days, consumers have a large pool of reliable cars to choose from. Cost, I hope is more self-evident. Consumers today have a absolutely amazing choice of quality, reliable cars (Fiesta, Fit, Versa, Yaris, Rio, Accent, etc) in the range of $15k. - A fair counterpoint would be that the median price of cars is actually quite high: ~$30k. - Like before, I should have been more specific said that consumers have really great low-cost options, rather than that "cars are [broadly] cheap these days.
        defterGoose 7y ago
        Yeah, there are definitely more entry level models now, but I feel like that hasn't really brought prices down that much taking inflation into account. Another issue not mentioned is that new cars have grown in complexity (electronics) immensely and have therefore become less easy for one to repair and less reliable at the same time. Anecdotally, a friend of mine had an early '10s Fiesta that was a total lemon (transmission issues were widespread with these).

by awb 7y ago

entee 7y ago

Right but there were tons of used cars in 1996 too that were available at a similar discount. The tweets are incomplete in that they fail to fully explain how CPI adjusts internally for quality improvement, but if we buy that (I think it’s reasonable) then cars, new and used, would be relatively more expensive today than in 1996

awb 7y ago
But a used 2018 minivan is a lot better than a new 1996 minivan and costs less even without adjusting for inflation. So, I can get a better car for less money today than I could in 1996. I think the issue might be status. Driving a brand new minivan in 1996 might have felt like you were getting ahead in life. Driving a used minivan today might feel like you're falling behind just because other newer and more expensive cars carry much more status.
- everdrive 7y ago
  Absolutely -- in fact, I think including cars in this discussion is a massive red herring because car reliability and choice have improved so much. Yes, the Caravan may be more expensive, but for sure there are much cheaper and more reliable non-Caravan options out there.
  - defterGoose 7y ago
    | car reliability and choice have improved so much Citation needed. I've worked on my cars a lot and this is not borne out by my experience. Edit: I feel we can leave EVs out of this discussion until they're in at least 50% of households' driveways.
    - everdrive 7y ago
      Fair to leave EVs out. I probably wasn't specific enough, either. When I was a kid in the early 90s, a car making it to 100k was still considered a (possibly then outdated) achievement, whereas in the last 15 years, a car making it gracefully to 100k miles is simply expected. - It's possible that I'm old enough such that this point no longer seems novel. - I'll also concede that despite this, there are plenty of cars which aren't reliable which people buy. If I'd clarified better, I might have said that even if there are plenty of unreliable cars these days, consumers have a large pool of reliable cars to choose from. Cost, I hope is more self-evident. Consumers today have a absolutely amazing choice of quality, reliable cars (Fiesta, Fit, Versa, Yaris, Rio, Accent, etc) in the range of $15k. - A fair counterpoint would be that the median price of cars is actually quite high: ~$30k. - Like before, I should have been more specific said that consumers have really great low-cost options, rather than that "cars are [broadly] cheap these days.
      - defterGoose 7y ago
        Yeah, there are definitely more entry level models now, but I feel like that hasn't really brought prices down that much taking inflation into account. Another issue not mentioned is that new cars have grown in complexity (electronics) immensely and have therefore become less easy for one to repair and less reliable at the same time. Anecdotally, a friend of mine had an early '10s Fiesta that was a total lemon (transmission issues were widespread with these).