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According to the latest WHO sitrep [1], there are 3 deaths and 924 confirmed cases. That's a fatality rate of 0.325%. China is an outlier because their health

According to the latest WHO sitrep [1], there are 3 deaths and 924 confirmed cases. That's a fatality rate of 0.325%. China is an outlier because their health system is overworked. [1] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...

jeromegv 7y ago
LOTS of countries don't have a health system as advanced as China, this is where the risk is. You can't dismiss the risk based on the fact that China is overworked because it is likely that other countries could end up in that situation with sufficient amount of cases.
mlrtime 7y ago
Wouldn't all health care systems be overworked with this high of an infection rate?
soperj 7y ago
If this gets to where most of the people in the world are, ie: India/Bangladesh/Pakistan/Africa, do you think their health care system will be better than China currently or worse?
baq 7y ago
Dividing current deaths by current cases is just about the worst way of estimating CFR of a developing epidemic. Try current deaths vs cases from 5, 7, 10 days ago or deaths vs (deaths + recoveries).
lubujackson 7y ago
The death rate doesn't mean anything unless we are looking at the "infected and recovered" number... so the death rate should only go up from there.
varren 7y ago
8 out of 1073 = 1.34125% as of 20.02.2019 [1], looks like it rises 1% per day;p but we both know that it's false assumption. And numbers we have right now doesn't matter really because it is too early to tell. Half of the world doesn't even have a capacity to test for COVID-19. And impact on developing countries will be on completely different level [2] (or maybe not, because population is much younger there) [1] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200220-sitrep-31-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dfd11d24_2 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... [2] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-...

jeromegv 7y ago

LOTS of countries don't have a health system as advanced as China, this is where the risk is. You can't dismiss the risk based on the fact that China is overworked because it is likely that other countries could end up in that situation with sufficient amount of cases.

mlrtime 7y ago

Wouldn't all health care systems be overworked with this high of an infection rate?

soperj 7y ago

If this gets to where most of the people in the world are, ie: India/Bangladesh/Pakistan/Africa, do you think their health care system will be better than China currently or worse?

baq 7y ago

Dividing current deaths by current cases is just about the worst way of estimating CFR of a developing epidemic. Try current deaths vs cases from 5, 7, 10 days ago or deaths vs (deaths + recoveries).

lubujackson 7y ago

The death rate doesn't mean anything unless we are looking at the "infected and recovered" number... so the death rate should only go up from there.

varren 7y ago

8 out of 1073 = 1.34125% as of 20.02.2019 [1], looks like it rises 1% per day;p but we both know that it's false assumption. And numbers we have right now doesn't matter really because it is too early to tell. Half of the world doesn't even have a capacity to test for COVID-19. And impact on developing countries will be on completely different level [2] (or maybe not, because population is much younger there) [1] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200220-sitrep-31-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dfd11d24_2 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... [2] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-...