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CDC: The containment phase is really to give us more time. This virus will become a community virus at some point in time, this year or next year. [...] Right n

CDC: The containment phase is really to give us more time. This virus will become a community virus at some point in time, this year or next year. [...] Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode, we don't know a lot about this virus, this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission. Add asymptomatic transmission in an incubation period of ~14 days and there is not much to check. Also, since China waited months, the virus was already left unchecked, resulting in an estimation ~1 million infected: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v...

theseadroid 7y ago
It's interesting that in your other comment you referenced another paper for a higher IFR although in this reference the model suggested 0.07%. So what do you believe? A higher total infection with a much lower IFR, or a higher IFR? Or you just pick papers that support your viewpoint for the sake of argument?
- BickNowstrom 7y ago
  > Or you just pick papers that support your viewpoint for the sake of argument? This. (Actually I believe both numbers are optimistically correct: 1 million infected and 50k death, but I also realize that's crazy talk and panic time. If that is what is really happening in Hubei I would quarantine 10% of the world's population).
  - theseadroid 7y ago
    I don't think CCP can cover 50k death with ease. Unlike many western people assumed, CCP is not omnipotent in China. There are checks and balances of power. Not distributed democratically, but still distributed in some opaque ways. 50k death can lead to some pretty serious power dynamics change if true. Btw it's not too far off that right now 10% of world's population is more or less under some level of quarantine.

theseadroid 7y ago

It's interesting that in your other comment you referenced another paper for a higher IFR although in this reference the model suggested 0.07%. So what do you believe? A higher total infection with a much lower IFR, or a higher IFR? Or you just pick papers that support your viewpoint for the sake of argument?

BickNowstrom 7y ago
> Or you just pick papers that support your viewpoint for the sake of argument? This. (Actually I believe both numbers are optimistically correct: 1 million infected and 50k death, but I also realize that's crazy talk and panic time. If that is what is really happening in Hubei I would quarantine 10% of the world's population).
- theseadroid 7y ago
  I don't think CCP can cover 50k death with ease. Unlike many western people assumed, CCP is not omnipotent in China. There are checks and balances of power. Not distributed democratically, but still distributed in some opaque ways. 50k death can lead to some pretty serious power dynamics change if true. Btw it's not too far off that right now 10% of world's population is more or less under some level of quarantine.