6 ms·

The article says > COVID-19 could infect 60 percent of the globe if left unchecked Clearly the outbreak is not unchecked. Many measures have been put in place

The article says > COVID-19 could infect 60 percent of the globe if left unchecked Clearly the outbreak is not unchecked. Many measures have been put in place already. I am pretty sure the global community isn't going to just standby and allow the virus to communicate freely.

slowmovintarget 7y ago
I certainly hope not, though that is what Japan and Singapore seem to have settled on.
- skmurphy 7y ago
  Singapore has mounted an extremely effective response.
  - firethief 7y ago
    They've been vigilant in their testing and transparent in their results, and it's making their numbers look bad. It doesn't look like any other country will follow their lead.
    - varren 7y ago
      At least they are doing something (or probably the right thing to say is that they are the only country with competent measures) and because of transparency you can see what's going on almost in real time. I think their numbers look bad now, but the measures look solid and to be honest Singapore is probably the only country with adequate response. So if things go bad there, i'm pretty sure it will go bad everywhere. [1] https://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/12436712/0x0/3000/5883/7628b6d2e219adae25b4f4267a768e50/Za/singapore-coronavirus-cluster-infographic-feb-14.jpg https://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/12436712/0x0/3000/5883... [2] https://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/12455138/0x0/2316/3209/c1eedd2fabafe0efb415ab3b476086bd/mX/covid-19-discharged-as-of-feb-20.png https://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/12455138/0x0/2316/3209... [3] https://coconuts.co/singapore/news/covid-19-heres-every-novel-coronavirus-infection-in-singapore-on-a-map/ https://coconuts.co/singapore/news/covid-19-heres-every-nove... [4] https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=14y9TsLoO2Y6bLjKTwcpWjjseJ-8ysxTD&ll=1.347431955362178%2C103.80548579828701&z=12 https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=14y9TsLoO2Y6bLj...
      - skmurphy 7y ago
        A lot of practical advice and experience in this Feb 20 article on lessons learned (so far) from Singapore's experience: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761890 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761890
      - firethief 7y ago
        > At least they are doing something (or probably the right thing to say is that they are the only country with competent measures) and because of transparency you can see what's going on almost in real time. Oh absolutely. In these crucial moments seeing every other country failing in its own way, Singapore's response impresses me. I think this crisis is acting as a child/adult/senile test. Some countries are not developed enough to handle this; they are denying anything is wrong and trying to delay the economic impact as long as possible. Some countries have been stable long enough to ossify; each is failing due to its own unique type of entrenched-power disease. Singapore is grown up enough to have the right resources to fight, and young enough to have control of its faculties. > So if things go bad there, i'm pretty sure it will go bad everywhere. I'm not sure about this. Singapore is one of the most polluted cities in the world, due to Indonesia being chronically on fire. There's some research that suggests that air pollution upregulates ACE2 receptors, which would be expected to increase transmissibility for a virus known to use those receptors to enter cells. We don't know much yet about its spread in populations with low smoking rates and cleaner air.
BickNowstrom 7y ago
CDC: The containment phase is really to give us more time. This virus will become a community virus at some point in time, this year or next year. [...] Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode, we don't know a lot about this virus, this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission. Add asymptomatic transmission in an incubation period of ~14 days and there is not much to check. Also, since China waited months, the virus was already left unchecked, resulting in an estimation ~1 million infected: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v...
- theseadroid 7y ago
  It's interesting that in your other comment you referenced another paper for a higher IFR although in this reference the model suggested 0.07%. So what do you believe? A higher total infection with a much lower IFR, or a higher IFR? Or you just pick papers that support your viewpoint for the sake of argument?
  - BickNowstrom 7y ago
    > Or you just pick papers that support your viewpoint for the sake of argument? This. (Actually I believe both numbers are optimistically correct: 1 million infected and 50k death, but I also realize that's crazy talk and panic time. If that is what is really happening in Hubei I would quarantine 10% of the world's population).
    - theseadroid 7y ago
      I don't think CCP can cover 50k death with ease. Unlike many western people assumed, CCP is not omnipotent in China. There are checks and balances of power. Not distributed democratically, but still distributed in some opaque ways. 50k death can lead to some pretty serious power dynamics change if true. Btw it's not too far off that right now 10% of world's population is more or less under some level of quarantine.
jeromegv 7y ago
Yes, however because it spreads so easily (even in the period without symptoms!) it is likely to spread outside of China. Singapore has done well to contain it, but not all countries have great health and control systems and it will eventually be just spreading everywhere, it's almost impossible for it to be entirely contained based on the pure fact of how large China is and how hard it is to detect.
baq 7y ago
Yeah just like it is in Iran, where they diagnosed a case posthumously in somebody who hasn’t travelled abroad, which means it’s been in the country for at least three weeks and they just learned about it last night.
- efa 7y ago
  It's interesting the cases in Iran are so high. Lots of movement between China and Iran I assume.

slowmovintarget 7y ago

I certainly hope not, though that is what Japan and Singapore seem to have settled on.

skmurphy 7y ago
Singapore has mounted an extremely effective response.
- firethief 7y ago
  They've been vigilant in their testing and transparent in their results, and it's making their numbers look bad. It doesn't look like any other country will follow their lead.
  - varren 7y ago
    At least they are doing something (or probably the right thing to say is that they are the only country with competent measures) and because of transparency you can see what's going on almost in real time. I think their numbers look bad now, but the measures look solid and to be honest Singapore is probably the only country with adequate response. So if things go bad there, i'm pretty sure it will go bad everywhere. [1] https://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/12436712/0x0/3000/5883/7628b6d2e219adae25b4f4267a768e50/Za/singapore-coronavirus-cluster-infographic-feb-14.jpg https://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/12436712/0x0/3000/5883... [2] https://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/12455138/0x0/2316/3209/c1eedd2fabafe0efb415ab3b476086bd/mX/covid-19-discharged-as-of-feb-20.png https://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/12455138/0x0/2316/3209... [3] https://coconuts.co/singapore/news/covid-19-heres-every-novel-coronavirus-infection-in-singapore-on-a-map/ https://coconuts.co/singapore/news/covid-19-heres-every-nove... [4] https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=14y9TsLoO2Y6bLjKTwcpWjjseJ-8ysxTD&ll=1.347431955362178%2C103.80548579828701&z=12 https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=14y9TsLoO2Y6bLj...
    - skmurphy 7y ago
      A lot of practical advice and experience in this Feb 20 article on lessons learned (so far) from Singapore's experience: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761890 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761890
    - firethief 7y ago
      > At least they are doing something (or probably the right thing to say is that they are the only country with competent measures) and because of transparency you can see what's going on almost in real time. Oh absolutely. In these crucial moments seeing every other country failing in its own way, Singapore's response impresses me. I think this crisis is acting as a child/adult/senile test. Some countries are not developed enough to handle this; they are denying anything is wrong and trying to delay the economic impact as long as possible. Some countries have been stable long enough to ossify; each is failing due to its own unique type of entrenched-power disease. Singapore is grown up enough to have the right resources to fight, and young enough to have control of its faculties. > So if things go bad there, i'm pretty sure it will go bad everywhere. I'm not sure about this. Singapore is one of the most polluted cities in the world, due to Indonesia being chronically on fire. There's some research that suggests that air pollution upregulates ACE2 receptors, which would be expected to increase transmissibility for a virus known to use those receptors to enter cells. We don't know much yet about its spread in populations with low smoking rates and cleaner air.

BickNowstrom 7y ago

CDC: The containment phase is really to give us more time. This virus will become a community virus at some point in time, this year or next year. [...] Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode, we don't know a lot about this virus, this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission. Add asymptomatic transmission in an incubation period of ~14 days and there is not much to check. Also, since China waited months, the virus was already left unchecked, resulting in an estimation ~1 million infected: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v...

theseadroid 7y ago
It's interesting that in your other comment you referenced another paper for a higher IFR although in this reference the model suggested 0.07%. So what do you believe? A higher total infection with a much lower IFR, or a higher IFR? Or you just pick papers that support your viewpoint for the sake of argument?
- BickNowstrom 7y ago
  > Or you just pick papers that support your viewpoint for the sake of argument? This. (Actually I believe both numbers are optimistically correct: 1 million infected and 50k death, but I also realize that's crazy talk and panic time. If that is what is really happening in Hubei I would quarantine 10% of the world's population).
  - theseadroid 7y ago
    I don't think CCP can cover 50k death with ease. Unlike many western people assumed, CCP is not omnipotent in China. There are checks and balances of power. Not distributed democratically, but still distributed in some opaque ways. 50k death can lead to some pretty serious power dynamics change if true. Btw it's not too far off that right now 10% of world's population is more or less under some level of quarantine.

jeromegv 7y ago

Yes, however because it spreads so easily (even in the period without symptoms!) it is likely to spread outside of China. Singapore has done well to contain it, but not all countries have great health and control systems and it will eventually be just spreading everywhere, it's almost impossible for it to be entirely contained based on the pure fact of how large China is and how hard it is to detect.

baq 7y ago

Yeah just like it is in Iran, where they diagnosed a case posthumously in somebody who hasn’t travelled abroad, which means it’s been in the country for at least three weeks and they just learned about it last night.

efa 7y ago
It's interesting the cases in Iran are so high. Lots of movement between China and Iran I assume.