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I don't understand. 1. The problem is that the GP prediction was wrong 2. You need to make sure predictions are right. 3. All predictions are wrong. 4. So add e
by gugagore 7y ago
I don't understand.
1. The problem is that the GP prediction was wrong
2. You need to make sure predictions are right.
3. All predictions are wrong.
4. So add error bars.
Should the downstream system trust the error bars with certainty?
It's hard to define what a right prediction is. The correct prediction is whatever makes the car safe and effective. If an action leads to a situation with a low probability but very catastrophic outcome, the system should not take that action, even if the prediction correct with its error bars.
- jacquesm 7y agoActing on a wrong prediction without a wide enough tolerance for errors in the prediction itself is what caused an issue here. If the OP had not made the prediction they would have had to keep their options open, which was the safer course of action. The fact that they were a beginner compounded the error (and is exactly one of those reasons why beginners tend to pay higher insurance premiums).