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I think "prediction" in this context means something different. It's not specifically that self-driving cars will optimistically assume they know what other dri

I think "prediction" in this context means something different. It's not specifically that self-driving cars will optimistically assume they know what other drivers are doing, like a naive driver might (although that is a form of prediction). It's more generally that in order to make any smart decisions at all, the AI has to model the future. For example, if you are driving behind a car on the highway, and the car _in front_ of that car puts their brake lights on, you may want to pre-emptively start braking now now. That's a type of pro-safety prediction made based on your understanding of the likely future that driving AIs should also have.

quietbritishjim 7y ago
As another example, if you're on a roundabout, if there's a car already on the roundabout (to your right in LHS driving countries like the UK, to your left otherwise) then you shouldn't enter it. But an exception is if you can clearly see that the car is going to exit the roundabout before it reaches you: this requires prediction, but not in the sense of guessing what the car might do, or even trusting their indication (ha!) but observing from their current trajectory and whether their wheels have straightened.
- snowwrestler 7y ago
  The roundabout is a good example of where it would be pretty easy to design a safe approach for self-driving cars (do not go until the roundabout is clear), but in a heavy traffic area, would result in the self-driving car just sitting... and sitting... and sitting... waiting for the roundabout to clear. A self-driving car that takes forever to get anywhere could easily fail in the marketplace, even if it is clearly safer statistically. The thing about very safe driving strategies is that humans can already choose them at any time, without buying anything. I, too, can sit and wait for a roundabout to fully clear before going. The fact is that a lot of people do a sort of risk-cost-benefit analysis in addition to safety analysis when driving. I'm not sure a car optimized heavily for safety, at the cost of efficiency of travel, will meet expectations.
  - ccozan 7y ago
    Msybe we will be able to choose a "unsafe" mode from a menu, also by acknowledging the full responsability if anything happens. Hard to sell indeed.
    - quietbritishjim 7y ago
      They'll just call it "sports mode".
  - jodrellblank 7y ago
    Just need to regulate a flagman for self driving cars https://66.media.tumblr.com/fdd6a0be1711940bd5a9e0f31e9f01ac/tumblr_mu7khp3v6C1rnseozo1_500.jpg https://66.media.tumblr.com/fdd6a0be1711940bd5a9e0f31e9f01ac... then we can have automation without job loss into the bargain.

quietbritishjim 7y ago

As another example, if you're on a roundabout, if there's a car already on the roundabout (to your right in LHS driving countries like the UK, to your left otherwise) then you shouldn't enter it. But an exception is if you can clearly see that the car is going to exit the roundabout before it reaches you: this requires prediction, but not in the sense of guessing what the car might do, or even trusting their indication (ha!) but observing from their current trajectory and whether their wheels have straightened.

snowwrestler 7y ago
The roundabout is a good example of where it would be pretty easy to design a safe approach for self-driving cars (do not go until the roundabout is clear), but in a heavy traffic area, would result in the self-driving car just sitting... and sitting... and sitting... waiting for the roundabout to clear. A self-driving car that takes forever to get anywhere could easily fail in the marketplace, even if it is clearly safer statistically. The thing about very safe driving strategies is that humans can already choose them at any time, without buying anything. I, too, can sit and wait for a roundabout to fully clear before going. The fact is that a lot of people do a sort of risk-cost-benefit analysis in addition to safety analysis when driving. I'm not sure a car optimized heavily for safety, at the cost of efficiency of travel, will meet expectations.
- ccozan 7y ago
  Msybe we will be able to choose a "unsafe" mode from a menu, also by acknowledging the full responsability if anything happens. Hard to sell indeed.
  - quietbritishjim 7y ago
    They'll just call it "sports mode".
- jodrellblank 7y ago
  Just need to regulate a flagman for self driving cars https://66.media.tumblr.com/fdd6a0be1711940bd5a9e0f31e9f01ac/tumblr_mu7khp3v6C1rnseozo1_500.jpg https://66.media.tumblr.com/fdd6a0be1711940bd5a9e0f31e9f01ac... then we can have automation without job loss into the bargain.