6 ms·

Scientist decries ‘chaotic’ conditions on cruise ship after viral outbreak

114 points by yskchu 7y ago

morpheuskafka 7y ago
That's kind of odd for Science Magazine to use a conspiracy theory YouTube channel as their source...
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- fennecfoxen 7y ago
  The original, which presumably was not on the "Subliminal Messages TV" channel, appears to have been taken down.
- yegle 7y ago
  https://mobile.twitter.com/georgebest1969/status/1230243699092705280 https://mobile.twitter.com/georgebest1969/status/12302436990... the author of the original video seem to have taken it down.
  - rasz 7y ago
    Of course he did. This is Japan, he walker all over people faces, people above his status. Expect demotion or firing, shunning from all government funded positions, Li Wenliang style televised public apology, maybe even legal repercussions. Doctor Kentaro Iwata is properly effed for speaking up.
- allovernow 7y ago
  Much of the information floating around regarding 2019-ncov has hallmarks of "conspiracy theory" because it is all happening in real time and legitimate media is unwilling to publish anything without confirmation from "official" sources...who in turn are not willing to confirm anything because anecdotal reports and pending peer review journal articles do not meet (understandable) verifiability standards. This unfortunately relegates any news to unnofficial "conspiracy" channels and gives people a dangerous justification for dismissing potentially legitimate reports. If you've been paying attention for the last month or two, there are hundreds of anecdotal reports and videos all pointing toward the same grave conclusions - not to mention dozens of published (awaiting review) papers at this point and, increasingly, many if not most of the rumors from 1-2 months ago are gradually being confirmed. Look no further than China's unprecedented response to this outbreak - 700 million people are under lockdown and their GDP is effectively shut down. Frankly, the modern media establishment's standards for proof are too high to adequately cover such a rapidly unfolding catastrophy when the majority of information has to come from unofficial leaks because ground zero is an authoritarian regime which controls what it's citizens can say amongst themselves and to the rest of the world. This epidemic is far worse than westerners currently seem to understand, and if it is not contained, the chaos that will grip the rest of the world will be truly awesome to behold. This is a virus which is at least as deadly as the infamous 1918 flu, likely more virulent (R0 estimates anywhere from 3 to 6+), and there is still no cure, though a paper was published on the 4th with chloroquine as a potential candidate. Plus, based on autoimmune reactions induced by all previously developed viable vaccine candidates for SARS and MERS, there is unlikely to be a vaccine for this coronavirus as well. As I've been saying for a month now, we should not be panicking, but there's no excuse at this point not to be prepared. WSJ announced 5400 people in California are under quarantine today. 700 people in WA under supervision from authorities. Personally I'm moving to minimize my reliance on the government in the case that this pandemic spreads to the U.S. at large, based on the rank incompetence that we see in government activities on a frequent basis. Honestly watching so many average people dismiss 2019-ncov has been a fascinating exposé on the potential for centralized information control in free speech societies - if you're a 3 letter agency and you want something to disappear from public consciousness, just preemptively leak the story to "questionable" sources and suddenly the media won't report on it and people will balk at you for posting junk sources. What a world we live in!
  - merlincorey 7y ago
    > WSJ announced 5400 people in California are under quarantine today. 700 people in WA under supervision from authorities. I was curious about the source for this so I searched and found this: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-has-u-s-cities-stretching-to-monitor-self-quarantined-americans-11582108203 https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-has-u-s-cities-stre... It states the 5400 Californians are under "self quarantine", as opposed to the Washington State enforced quarantine of 700.
  - Johnny555 7y ago
    This post sounds like a conspiracy theory. The reason traditional media and other authoritative sources are so reluctant to post speculation is to avoid spreading unwarranted panic. Right now, Influenza is a far bigger risk to the average person, and less than half of Americans bother to get vaccinated.
    - chrisco255 7y ago
      Well the vaccine is only about 50% effective so it's sort of a tossup if it's worth getting.
      - Johnny555 7y ago
        If the vaccine gives me 50% protection from a disease that will leave me bedridden for a week and that disease has a 0.1% chance of killing me, I'll take that vaccine (and I have -- ever year now for the past 20 or so years, ever since I last got the flu). I can't say whether or not it's working, but I haven't caught the flu since I started getting vaccinated.
        wolfram74 7y ago
        .1% is pretty pessimistic on vaccine mortality. There are circumstances where it would be preferable to the alternative, but I don't think there are any /that/ bad.
bencollier49 7y ago
If the tests are as unreliable as has been reported (and a lot of rubbish gets reported) then those released passengers travelling around Japan seem like a bit of a risk.
galacticaactual 7y ago
Effective crisis management of this nature requires rehearsal and drilling, even if just an administrative / tabletop exercise. The chaos described is a classic symptom of not doing so.
- fennecfoxen 7y ago
  This is to be expected, as the article notes — "Japan lacks an agency like the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, charged with applying research to public health ... NIID is focused on basic research."
- catalogia 7y ago
  I'm under the impression the Japanese government received some withering criticism for their bureaucratic mismanaged response to the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami; I expected they would have revisited their emergency response procedures after that, but I guess not?
  - claudeganon 7y ago
    Japan has effectively been a corrupt, one party democracy for decades and press freedom has dropped dramatically since Abe’s rise to power/attacks on it. Imagine if something like Trump administration had been in charge for the same length of time in a culture where popular dissent has been all but quashed, most people were baby boomers, and the government silenced reporters. It’s a recipe for disaster and immune to criticism.
    - Sojuwa 7y ago
      Orange man bad...
- DataWorker 7y ago
  Prepping matters.
paranoidrobot 7y ago
The German Public Broadcaster DW has a short video[1] covering this, including some of Kentaro Iwata's video statement. The mention that the Japanese government is allowing it's citizens to leave and use public transit seems like a very risky and foolhardy move. While I'm certainly no expert, and I'd definitely hate to be stuck on that ship - I think Japan could surely have set up some kind of field isolation area in the last few weeks and get passengers off and isolated using proper quarantine protocols. The statement by Kentaro Iwata makes it clear that nobody with a background in infectious diseases was involved in setting up proper quarantine procedures onboard the ship. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPpAsRJJ14E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPpAsRJJ14E
ackbar03 7y ago
I don't think any country is really fully prepared to handle outbreaks on this level tbh
- sdinsn 7y ago
  > outbreaks on this level An isolated outbreak on a cruise ship? That should be the bare minimum a country should handle. Note that Japan doesn't have any organization like the CDC- they aren't prepared for anything.
  - ackbar03 7y ago
    I mean if theyre bungling an outbreak on a ship imagine what would happen if patient zero was in japan.
  - NotSammyHagar 7y ago
    Japan or rather their govt screwed it up. But it's very hard to deal with thousands of sick people, no doubt they had no facility big enough. They should have seen this as an extreme emergency and either used a military base or taken over (renting) a large hotel. These are emergency situations.
- jlu 7y ago
  Maybe try Taiwan?
- tartoran 7y ago
  And it speaks volumes of politics and power hierarchies in action and under-performing as expected. This could take different but similar bad turns in any of the first world countries too having a less population factor unlike in china but with deadlier virus or catastrophe. I hope we all learn something from this besides pointed fingers. The world we live in is still very fragile and I think we it would be great if we concentrated our collective energies on something constructive in this direction.
qtplatypus 7y ago
Can someone fix this headline? ‘... cruise ship Japan” reads like it is a cruise ship called “Japan” rather then the full headline “... cruise ship Japan quarantined”
justlexi93 7y ago
A Japanese infectious disease specialist who visited the quarantined Diamond Princess decried "chaotic" and "scary" conditions on the cruise liner that gave the coronavirus more opportunity to spread.
chrisco255 7y ago
If anyone's interested this is a good breakdown of the cases so far, by region and country: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...

114 points by yskchu 7y ago

morpheuskafka 7y ago

That's kind of odd for Science Magazine to use a conspiracy theory YouTube channel as their source...

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
fennecfoxen 7y ago
The original, which presumably was not on the "Subliminal Messages TV" channel, appears to have been taken down.
yegle 7y ago
https://mobile.twitter.com/georgebest1969/status/1230243699092705280 https://mobile.twitter.com/georgebest1969/status/12302436990... the author of the original video seem to have taken it down.
- rasz 7y ago
  Of course he did. This is Japan, he walker all over people faces, people above his status. Expect demotion or firing, shunning from all government funded positions, Li Wenliang style televised public apology, maybe even legal repercussions. Doctor Kentaro Iwata is properly effed for speaking up.
allovernow 7y ago
Much of the information floating around regarding 2019-ncov has hallmarks of "conspiracy theory" because it is all happening in real time and legitimate media is unwilling to publish anything without confirmation from "official" sources...who in turn are not willing to confirm anything because anecdotal reports and pending peer review journal articles do not meet (understandable) verifiability standards. This unfortunately relegates any news to unnofficial "conspiracy" channels and gives people a dangerous justification for dismissing potentially legitimate reports. If you've been paying attention for the last month or two, there are hundreds of anecdotal reports and videos all pointing toward the same grave conclusions - not to mention dozens of published (awaiting review) papers at this point and, increasingly, many if not most of the rumors from 1-2 months ago are gradually being confirmed. Look no further than China's unprecedented response to this outbreak - 700 million people are under lockdown and their GDP is effectively shut down. Frankly, the modern media establishment's standards for proof are too high to adequately cover such a rapidly unfolding catastrophy when the majority of information has to come from unofficial leaks because ground zero is an authoritarian regime which controls what it's citizens can say amongst themselves and to the rest of the world. This epidemic is far worse than westerners currently seem to understand, and if it is not contained, the chaos that will grip the rest of the world will be truly awesome to behold. This is a virus which is at least as deadly as the infamous 1918 flu, likely more virulent (R0 estimates anywhere from 3 to 6+), and there is still no cure, though a paper was published on the 4th with chloroquine as a potential candidate. Plus, based on autoimmune reactions induced by all previously developed viable vaccine candidates for SARS and MERS, there is unlikely to be a vaccine for this coronavirus as well. As I've been saying for a month now, we should not be panicking, but there's no excuse at this point not to be prepared. WSJ announced 5400 people in California are under quarantine today. 700 people in WA under supervision from authorities. Personally I'm moving to minimize my reliance on the government in the case that this pandemic spreads to the U.S. at large, based on the rank incompetence that we see in government activities on a frequent basis. Honestly watching so many average people dismiss 2019-ncov has been a fascinating exposé on the potential for centralized information control in free speech societies - if you're a 3 letter agency and you want something to disappear from public consciousness, just preemptively leak the story to "questionable" sources and suddenly the media won't report on it and people will balk at you for posting junk sources. What a world we live in!
- merlincorey 7y ago
  > WSJ announced 5400 people in California are under quarantine today. 700 people in WA under supervision from authorities. I was curious about the source for this so I searched and found this: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-has-u-s-cities-stretching-to-monitor-self-quarantined-americans-11582108203 https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-has-u-s-cities-stre... It states the 5400 Californians are under "self quarantine", as opposed to the Washington State enforced quarantine of 700.
- Johnny555 7y ago
  This post sounds like a conspiracy theory. The reason traditional media and other authoritative sources are so reluctant to post speculation is to avoid spreading unwarranted panic. Right now, Influenza is a far bigger risk to the average person, and less than half of Americans bother to get vaccinated.
  - chrisco255 7y ago
    Well the vaccine is only about 50% effective so it's sort of a tossup if it's worth getting.
    - Johnny555 7y ago
      If the vaccine gives me 50% protection from a disease that will leave me bedridden for a week and that disease has a 0.1% chance of killing me, I'll take that vaccine (and I have -- ever year now for the past 20 or so years, ever since I last got the flu). I can't say whether or not it's working, but I haven't caught the flu since I started getting vaccinated.
      - wolfram74 7y ago
        .1% is pretty pessimistic on vaccine mortality. There are circumstances where it would be preferable to the alternative, but I don't think there are any /that/ bad.

bencollier49 7y ago

If the tests are as unreliable as has been reported (and a lot of rubbish gets reported) then those released passengers travelling around Japan seem like a bit of a risk.

galacticaactual 7y ago

Effective crisis management of this nature requires rehearsal and drilling, even if just an administrative / tabletop exercise. The chaos described is a classic symptom of not doing so.

fennecfoxen 7y ago
This is to be expected, as the article notes — "Japan lacks an agency like the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, charged with applying research to public health ... NIID is focused on basic research."
catalogia 7y ago
I'm under the impression the Japanese government received some withering criticism for their bureaucratic mismanaged response to the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami; I expected they would have revisited their emergency response procedures after that, but I guess not?
- claudeganon 7y ago
  Japan has effectively been a corrupt, one party democracy for decades and press freedom has dropped dramatically since Abe’s rise to power/attacks on it. Imagine if something like Trump administration had been in charge for the same length of time in a culture where popular dissent has been all but quashed, most people were baby boomers, and the government silenced reporters. It’s a recipe for disaster and immune to criticism.
  - Sojuwa 7y ago
    Orange man bad...
DataWorker 7y ago
Prepping matters.

paranoidrobot 7y ago

The German Public Broadcaster DW has a short video[1] covering this, including some of Kentaro Iwata's video statement. The mention that the Japanese government is allowing it's citizens to leave and use public transit seems like a very risky and foolhardy move. While I'm certainly no expert, and I'd definitely hate to be stuck on that ship - I think Japan could surely have set up some kind of field isolation area in the last few weeks and get passengers off and isolated using proper quarantine protocols. The statement by Kentaro Iwata makes it clear that nobody with a background in infectious diseases was involved in setting up proper quarantine procedures onboard the ship. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPpAsRJJ14E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPpAsRJJ14E

ackbar03 7y ago

I don't think any country is really fully prepared to handle outbreaks on this level tbh

sdinsn 7y ago
> outbreaks on this level An isolated outbreak on a cruise ship? That should be the bare minimum a country should handle. Note that Japan doesn't have any organization like the CDC- they aren't prepared for anything.
- ackbar03 7y ago
  I mean if theyre bungling an outbreak on a ship imagine what would happen if patient zero was in japan.
- NotSammyHagar 7y ago
  Japan or rather their govt screwed it up. But it's very hard to deal with thousands of sick people, no doubt they had no facility big enough. They should have seen this as an extreme emergency and either used a military base or taken over (renting) a large hotel. These are emergency situations.
jlu 7y ago
Maybe try Taiwan?
tartoran 7y ago
And it speaks volumes of politics and power hierarchies in action and under-performing as expected. This could take different but similar bad turns in any of the first world countries too having a less population factor unlike in china but with deadlier virus or catastrophe. I hope we all learn something from this besides pointed fingers. The world we live in is still very fragile and I think we it would be great if we concentrated our collective energies on something constructive in this direction.

qtplatypus 7y ago

Can someone fix this headline? ‘... cruise ship Japan” reads like it is a cruise ship called “Japan” rather then the full headline “... cruise ship Japan quarantined”

justlexi93 7y ago

A Japanese infectious disease specialist who visited the quarantined Diamond Princess decried "chaotic" and "scary" conditions on the cruise liner that gave the coronavirus more opportunity to spread.

chrisco255 7y ago

If anyone's interested this is a good breakdown of the cases so far, by region and country: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...