4 ms·

I think it's pretty unlikely. Mainly because it's unlikely we won't be able to contain the virus. And once contained there will be pent up demand, that will if

by ars 7y ago

I think it's pretty unlikely. Mainly because it's unlikely we won't be able to contain the virus. And once contained there will be pent up demand, that will if anything, improve global finances.

spectramax 7y ago
Do you think that the virus is the initiation point for bigger cracks in the market? China has taken up enormous debt to fund growth (especially in real estate and infra projects), perhaps the virus creates a nucleation point for avalance of recession?
koheripbal 7y ago
I honestly don't see how this virus could possibly be contained. With almost 100K people infected - and likely more flying under the radar, it seems far more likely that it will return yearly like the current flu until we get a vaccine. There are countries that simply aren't reporting infections, such as North Korea, which will be persistent jump-off points for new outbreaks on an ongoing basis.
- ars 7y ago
  > more likely that it will return yearly like the current flu The flu mutates yearly, I'm not aware of this new virus having that ability. In your scenario over time everyone will have encountered the virus and either are now immune or they die. At that point the spread will slow. It's not like this hasn't happened before: H1N1, Ebola, Zika. They all died down eventually.
  - sliken 7y ago
    USA is having an unusual "double-barreled" flu this year where two different variants are common. One of which is A/H1N1 appeared as a second wave late in the flu season. Not sure what coronavirus will do, but clearly diseases like H1N1 can recur. What is somewhat more scary is that particularly lethal diseases often get less aggressive over time because the less aggressive variants transmit better and offer protection against the more aggressive variants. But since coronavirus can spread before symptoms appear, it's not clear that the same feedback loop will occur.
  - xvilka 7y ago
    Ebola is not dead and there's ongoing[1] epidemic in Africa. It's still big and on the verge of declaring international emergency. It's just not airborne virus which limits the spread. [1] https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/02/1057291 https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/02/1057291
rolltiide 7y ago
I don't think it will be contained. The market will just get used to it. Right now the fear of the unknown is stopping commerce. All the movers and shakers are elderly people with pre-existing conditions, its accurate for them to be scared. The rest of humanity will be okay. In the meantime the market will have to deal with the fear from the elder class. The septuagenarians running for head of state and influential organizations.
- jmnicolas 7y ago
  > The rest of humanity will be okay. Apparently the virus damages testes (and kidneys), male fertility is affected. I can't find the source I've read yesterday, but it was a medical report on a site named something like medvix. edit : found the site : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v...
  - Smaug123 7y ago
    In case you hadn't made the connection, "medRxiv" is named by analogy with the arXiv, both being preprint repositories for papers in their respective fields.
  - blackrock 7y ago
    I saw this movie before! [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_of_Men https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_of_Men
raducu 7y ago
So, it's almost like the virus is actually good for the markets in the longest bull market on record? That almost sounds delusional to me, but hey, as long as central banks can pump money into the markets, anything goes.

by ars 7y ago

I think it's pretty unlikely. Mainly because it's unlikely we won't be able to contain the virus. And once contained there will be pent up demand, that will if anything, improve global finances.

spectramax 7y ago

Do you think that the virus is the initiation point for bigger cracks in the market? China has taken up enormous debt to fund growth (especially in real estate and infra projects), perhaps the virus creates a nucleation point for avalance of recession?

koheripbal 7y ago

I honestly don't see how this virus could possibly be contained. With almost 100K people infected - and likely more flying under the radar, it seems far more likely that it will return yearly like the current flu until we get a vaccine. There are countries that simply aren't reporting infections, such as North Korea, which will be persistent jump-off points for new outbreaks on an ongoing basis.

ars 7y ago
> more likely that it will return yearly like the current flu The flu mutates yearly, I'm not aware of this new virus having that ability. In your scenario over time everyone will have encountered the virus and either are now immune or they die. At that point the spread will slow. It's not like this hasn't happened before: H1N1, Ebola, Zika. They all died down eventually.
- sliken 7y ago
  USA is having an unusual "double-barreled" flu this year where two different variants are common. One of which is A/H1N1 appeared as a second wave late in the flu season. Not sure what coronavirus will do, but clearly diseases like H1N1 can recur. What is somewhat more scary is that particularly lethal diseases often get less aggressive over time because the less aggressive variants transmit better and offer protection against the more aggressive variants. But since coronavirus can spread before symptoms appear, it's not clear that the same feedback loop will occur.
- xvilka 7y ago
  Ebola is not dead and there's ongoing[1] epidemic in Africa. It's still big and on the verge of declaring international emergency. It's just not airborne virus which limits the spread. [1] https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/02/1057291 https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/02/1057291

rolltiide 7y ago

I don't think it will be contained. The market will just get used to it. Right now the fear of the unknown is stopping commerce. All the movers and shakers are elderly people with pre-existing conditions, its accurate for them to be scared. The rest of humanity will be okay. In the meantime the market will have to deal with the fear from the elder class. The septuagenarians running for head of state and influential organizations.

jmnicolas 7y ago
> The rest of humanity will be okay. Apparently the virus damages testes (and kidneys), male fertility is affected. I can't find the source I've read yesterday, but it was a medical report on a site named something like medvix. edit : found the site : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v...
- Smaug123 7y ago
  In case you hadn't made the connection, "medRxiv" is named by analogy with the arXiv, both being preprint repositories for papers in their respective fields.
- blackrock 7y ago
  I saw this movie before! [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_of_Men https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_of_Men

raducu 7y ago

So, it's almost like the virus is actually good for the markets in the longest bull market on record? That almost sounds delusional to me, but hey, as long as central banks can pump money into the markets, anything goes.