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The United States has already been handling the few cases it has pretty aggressively, and following up with anyone who might have come into contact with each pe

The United States has already been handling the few cases it has pretty aggressively, and following up with anyone who might have come into contact with each person. This feels like you're just jumping on the opportunity to say "US healthcare is bad, guys", which doesn't really make sense when comparing our handling of an outbreak (in which the CDC will mobilize and largely bypass the issues in our healthcare system to mitigate disaster) to India and Africa not having anywhere near the infrastructure to handle this. People are still dying of swine flu in India, a decade later. There's really no comparison, no matter how much you may dislike the US healthcare situation

empath75 7y ago
Us health care hasn’t had to deal with something like the Spanish flu since the creation of the modern health insurance system. It’ll be interesting to see how well it handles millions of people who need extremely expensive ICU care all at the same time. I expect we’ll see one or more insurance companies collapse or need a government bail out.
- E14n 7y ago
  The information release so fare makes this look more like a bad flu with a 2.5% mortality rate, nothing like the Spanish Flu's 10%~20%. The Spanish Flu was also especially bad because it effected young adults disproportionately[1]. This caused massive problems because that was the age group of most care givers. 1. as appose to 0.1~0.2 for regular flu 2. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/
DanBC 7y ago
> People are still dying of swine flu in India, a decade later. In the 2017-2018 flu season over 70,000 people died in the US, and the main strain was H3N2 - a type of Swine Flu. The A(H1N1pdm09) strain is still circulating in the US and still causes death there too. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/burden-of-h1n1.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/burden-of-h1n1.ht... > CDC estimates that from 2009 through 2018, influenza A H1N1pdm09 has caused at least: 100.5 million illnesses, 936,000 hospitalizations, and 75,000 deaths.
dboreham 7y ago
Infected people in the US so far were wealthy (traveling back from China) and so didn't have the cost concerns mentioned above.
- Notorious_BLT 7y ago
  Logic would dictate that that would continue to be true, since the cost of flying from China is unlikely to get drastically cheaper. So I'm not sure what you're getting at.
- partiallypro 7y ago
  You don't have to be wealthy to have traveled on a cruise ship. The US is also pretty well organized, and generally very transparent about this sort of thing. While China is...not. The US, on a relative basis is also a much cleaner and sanitary country than China.
  - CodeMage 7y ago
    Replace "wealthy" with "not poor" and the grandparent's point stands.
    - wtallis 7y ago
      Or even just interpret "wealthy" in a global context instead of local.
- bart_spoon 7y ago
  Its also worth noting that Japan's response has been roundly criticized both from within and without. They've kept these citizens in a cruise ship sized pitri dish and the effects are now playing out. On the other hand, they have been more hands off when it comes to monitoring and quarantining people traveling to and from China via air. Most other countries, including the US, seem to be reacting with stronger measures, which may make a big difference.
jajag 7y ago
There's a discussion on this Twitter thread about why it could become a problem: https://twitter.com/SuperMugatu/status/1229229188273627136 https://twitter.com/SuperMugatu/status/1229229188273627136
justforyou 7y ago
The CDC has just had its budget cut by 16%, is still forbidden from using the terms "evidence-based" and "science-based", and has dragged its feet long enough that containment is very unlikely at this point.
- HelloMcFly 7y ago
  Trump proposed cutting the CDC's budget by 16%, but given that Congress sets the budgets this is not meaningful at this time. I'm curious what you mean by the CDC having "dragged its feet". I know a dozen people at the CDC, they've all - ALL - been aggressively sidelining their previous projects to focus on COVID-19 for some time. They certainly don't feel internally the way you do.
  - justforyou 7y ago
    I'm curious as to what exactly "some time" means for the 12 people that you know. Is it greater than 4 weeks?
    - catalogia 7y ago
      12 people may not be a lot, but his anecdote of 12 people seems stronger than what you've offered up so far. What actual evidence is there that the CDC has dragged their feet on this?
      - justforyou 7y ago
        January 24th is quite late to the game relative to what we've known publicly for quite some time. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/archives.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/archives.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2019/archives.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2019/archives.html Testing delays and scheduling issues for testing before the CDC distributed kits were also critical missteps.
    - HelloMcFly 7y ago
      I have texted the seven people of those 12 who I'm on "texting terms" with. Three of them began shifting some of their time in mid-November, two in mid-December, one in January, one no response. Four of the seven have traveled to US ports beginning in January to begin testing and monitoring efforts.

empath75 7y ago

Us health care hasn’t had to deal with something like the Spanish flu since the creation of the modern health insurance system. It’ll be interesting to see how well it handles millions of people who need extremely expensive ICU care all at the same time. I expect we’ll see one or more insurance companies collapse or need a government bail out.

E14n 7y ago
The information release so fare makes this look more like a bad flu with a 2.5% mortality rate, nothing like the Spanish Flu's 10%~20%. The Spanish Flu was also especially bad because it effected young adults disproportionately[1]. This caused massive problems because that was the age group of most care givers. 1. as appose to 0.1~0.2 for regular flu 2. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/

DanBC 7y ago

> People are still dying of swine flu in India, a decade later. In the 2017-2018 flu season over 70,000 people died in the US, and the main strain was H3N2 - a type of Swine Flu. The A(H1N1pdm09) strain is still circulating in the US and still causes death there too. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/burden-of-h1n1.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/burden-of-h1n1.ht... > CDC estimates that from 2009 through 2018, influenza A H1N1pdm09 has caused at least: 100.5 million illnesses, 936,000 hospitalizations, and 75,000 deaths.

dboreham 7y ago

Infected people in the US so far were wealthy (traveling back from China) and so didn't have the cost concerns mentioned above.

Notorious_BLT 7y ago
Logic would dictate that that would continue to be true, since the cost of flying from China is unlikely to get drastically cheaper. So I'm not sure what you're getting at.
partiallypro 7y ago
You don't have to be wealthy to have traveled on a cruise ship. The US is also pretty well organized, and generally very transparent about this sort of thing. While China is...not. The US, on a relative basis is also a much cleaner and sanitary country than China.
- CodeMage 7y ago
  Replace "wealthy" with "not poor" and the grandparent's point stands.
  - wtallis 7y ago
    Or even just interpret "wealthy" in a global context instead of local.
bart_spoon 7y ago
Its also worth noting that Japan's response has been roundly criticized both from within and without. They've kept these citizens in a cruise ship sized pitri dish and the effects are now playing out. On the other hand, they have been more hands off when it comes to monitoring and quarantining people traveling to and from China via air. Most other countries, including the US, seem to be reacting with stronger measures, which may make a big difference.

jajag 7y ago

There's a discussion on this Twitter thread about why it could become a problem: https://twitter.com/SuperMugatu/status/1229229188273627136 https://twitter.com/SuperMugatu/status/1229229188273627136

justforyou 7y ago

The CDC has just had its budget cut by 16%, is still forbidden from using the terms "evidence-based" and "science-based", and has dragged its feet long enough that containment is very unlikely at this point.

HelloMcFly 7y ago
Trump proposed cutting the CDC's budget by 16%, but given that Congress sets the budgets this is not meaningful at this time. I'm curious what you mean by the CDC having "dragged its feet". I know a dozen people at the CDC, they've all - ALL - been aggressively sidelining their previous projects to focus on COVID-19 for some time. They certainly don't feel internally the way you do.
- justforyou 7y ago
  I'm curious as to what exactly "some time" means for the 12 people that you know. Is it greater than 4 weeks?
  - catalogia 7y ago
    12 people may not be a lot, but his anecdote of 12 people seems stronger than what you've offered up so far. What actual evidence is there that the CDC has dragged their feet on this?
    - justforyou 7y ago
      January 24th is quite late to the game relative to what we've known publicly for quite some time. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/archives.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/archives.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2019/archives.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2019/archives.html Testing delays and scheduling issues for testing before the CDC distributed kits were also critical missteps.
  - HelloMcFly 7y ago
    I have texted the seven people of those 12 who I'm on "texting terms" with. Three of them began shifting some of their time in mid-November, two in mid-December, one in January, one no response. Four of the seven have traveled to US ports beginning in January to begin testing and monitoring efforts.