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What are they going to threaten TSMC with? Banning it's products? So you kill the smartphone and most of the SoC industry in one fell swoop? TSMC has way more

What are they going to threaten TSMC with? Banning it's products? So you kill the smartphone and most of the SoC industry in one fell swoop? TSMC has way more bargaining power than Huawei. The US won't be able to bully it around that easily. They could easily find enough buyers for their wafers in Asia and Europe. Any tarif would be directly passed onto TSMC's clients too, so it'd be straight up taxing 80% of the things that have silicon in them. I don't see what leverage the US govt has on an entity with as much global relevance and few competitors as TSMC.

101404 7y ago
> What are they going to threaten TSMC with? Its a Taiwanese company. The US is pretty much the only country that helps Taiwan to continue to exist as an independent country (not officially, but in practice). If the US tells Taiwan to stop supplying Huawei, that's what they will do. I an still not sure though what the motives if the US are in bashing on Huawei so much.
- innagadadavida 7y ago
  > I an still not sure though what the motives if the US are in bashing on Huawei so much. Perhaps Huawei refused to put backdoors for the CIA?
  - badrabbit 7y ago
    Why would the CIA ask a foreign company politely? Would they have a problem developing an asset in huawei to create a backdoor? Huawei basically admitted to backdoors except they claim it can't be abused without people noticing. I question the motives of you and the parent commentor you replied to.
- fgonzag 7y ago
  You do realize China thinks and claims it owns Taiwan. If Taiwan refused to do business with a Chinese company on behalf of the US, you'd be guaranteed to have the Chinese army there within the week. China-Taiwan relations are nothing to fuck with, unless the US is willing to spill major blood. To China this is no different than the US demanding a Tibetan village stop trading with China.
  - teknologist 7y ago
    The analysis says that China would "spill" plenty of blood in that situation too, and the outcome might not be as predictable as you think... https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...
    - fgonzag 7y ago
      The whole point of the preceding paragraph is stating that china is absolutely willing to spill blood over Taiwan. We're asking if the US govt has enough political capital to fight a war against a country with an actual army over literally nothing at all. The US hasn't fought one of those since World War II, and it hasn't had a war with major casualties since Vietnam IRC? China doesn't care if half its army comes back home in body bags. Their country is built on extreme nationalism and Taiwan going off script is an existential threat to their model. Could the US population tolerate a casualty rate much much higher than Vietnam, especially over an economic dispute? Nobody is disputing the US would beat China in a war.
dirtyid 7y ago
This is likely door-in-face technique to coerce TSMC into opening an advanced fab in US, something TSMC rejected last month for good reason. TSMC fabs forces US to serve as security guarantor since they're integral to US military supply chains. There's zero chance TSMC is going to stop doing business with China, or those plants would be craters. Everyone knows this. US has other nuclear option like banning Huawei from dollar trading before something as mutually destructive as wiping TSMC off the face of the map.
- fgonzag 7y ago
  Exactly, this is complete crazy talk by the US goverment and they know they don't have the tools to enforce such a ban. TSMC is part owned by the Taiwanese goverment. The US is literally asking the Taiwanese people to throw away their only bargaining chip as a sovereign nation. The moment TSMC opens a factory in the US/Europe, both of those countries stakes in the sovereignty of Taiwan drop down to 0. If china takes over Taiwan the US will simply nationalize the American factory and be done with it. TSMC would probably rather lose the whole American market and live off SEA/Europe, than having their government overthrown by China.

101404 7y ago

> What are they going to threaten TSMC with? Its a Taiwanese company. The US is pretty much the only country that helps Taiwan to continue to exist as an independent country (not officially, but in practice). If the US tells Taiwan to stop supplying Huawei, that's what they will do. I an still not sure though what the motives if the US are in bashing on Huawei so much.

innagadadavida 7y ago
> I an still not sure though what the motives if the US are in bashing on Huawei so much. Perhaps Huawei refused to put backdoors for the CIA?
- badrabbit 7y ago
  Why would the CIA ask a foreign company politely? Would they have a problem developing an asset in huawei to create a backdoor? Huawei basically admitted to backdoors except they claim it can't be abused without people noticing. I question the motives of you and the parent commentor you replied to.
fgonzag 7y ago
You do realize China thinks and claims it owns Taiwan. If Taiwan refused to do business with a Chinese company on behalf of the US, you'd be guaranteed to have the Chinese army there within the week. China-Taiwan relations are nothing to fuck with, unless the US is willing to spill major blood. To China this is no different than the US demanding a Tibetan village stop trading with China.
- teknologist 7y ago
  The analysis says that China would "spill" plenty of blood in that situation too, and the outcome might not be as predictable as you think... https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...
  - fgonzag 7y ago
    The whole point of the preceding paragraph is stating that china is absolutely willing to spill blood over Taiwan. We're asking if the US govt has enough political capital to fight a war against a country with an actual army over literally nothing at all. The US hasn't fought one of those since World War II, and it hasn't had a war with major casualties since Vietnam IRC? China doesn't care if half its army comes back home in body bags. Their country is built on extreme nationalism and Taiwan going off script is an existential threat to their model. Could the US population tolerate a casualty rate much much higher than Vietnam, especially over an economic dispute? Nobody is disputing the US would beat China in a war.

dirtyid 7y ago

This is likely door-in-face technique to coerce TSMC into opening an advanced fab in US, something TSMC rejected last month for good reason. TSMC fabs forces US to serve as security guarantor since they're integral to US military supply chains. There's zero chance TSMC is going to stop doing business with China, or those plants would be craters. Everyone knows this. US has other nuclear option like banning Huawei from dollar trading before something as mutually destructive as wiping TSMC off the face of the map.

fgonzag 7y ago
Exactly, this is complete crazy talk by the US goverment and they know they don't have the tools to enforce such a ban. TSMC is part owned by the Taiwanese goverment. The US is literally asking the Taiwanese people to throw away their only bargaining chip as a sovereign nation. The moment TSMC opens a factory in the US/Europe, both of those countries stakes in the sovereignty of Taiwan drop down to 0. If china takes over Taiwan the US will simply nationalize the American factory and be done with it. TSMC would probably rather lose the whole American market and live off SEA/Europe, than having their government overthrown by China.