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The best part of this is watching very smart people discover that their highly optimised spreadsheets aren’t anti-fragile.
by georgebarnett 7y ago
The best part of this is watching very smart people discover that their highly optimised spreadsheets aren’t anti-fragile.
- georgebarnett 7y agoInterestingly, a literal rerun of the hard drive motor shortage due to flooding in Thailand a few years back.
- totalZero 7y agoThat shortage took many quarters to work itself out.
- icedchai 7y agoBuy the dip. People still intend on buying their phones, watches, and other toys, sooner than later.
- hnews_account_1 7y agoMost people already know this. All estimates made within spreadsheets are based on averages. Nothing left tail is ever considered more than a small probability event. In general, they make 3 different models - bull case, bear case and normal. Even the bear case will just project a negative 2 sigma possibility at most. Nothing too much black swan is accounted for cos it'll just drag down estimates considerably and the rest of the happy-go-lucky market will keep pumping up prices while you sit and stare at your low price target that was achieved weeks ago.