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Realistically though, Tesla will got bought out by one of these larger companies, so they can integrate (while undoubtedly making worse) the underlying tech. T

Realistically though, Tesla will got bought out by one of these larger companies, so they can integrate (while undoubtedly making worse) the underlying tech. Tesla hasn’t show any capacity to deliver quality cars at scale, nor provide service to them, whatever their ambitions. Combined with all their SEC problems, it’s reminiscent of Preston Tucker’s car company: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_Tucker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_Tucker

codeulike 7y ago
Tesla sold 367,500 cars in 2019 (as of mid-January) Tesla's market capitalization is $93 billion, compared to $50 billion for General Motors and $37 billion for Ford No other car company is going to be buying them out unless they crash very very badly
- claudeganon 7y ago
  Toyota’s market cap is more than twice that of Tesla, around 200 billion, and they sold 10 million cars last year. I do expect Tesla’s is dramatically inflated, I have no idea if Toyota would buy them, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. If Toyota could successfully integrate all the Tesla stuff into their vehicles, it would also have a greater impact than anything Tesla will likely accomplish on their own.
  - SEJeff 7y ago
    As of this very moment, the market caps of both are as follows: Toyota: 228.41 Billion Tesla: 144.2 Billion That's time and a half, but not more than twice. I find it stretching credibility to think Toyota could afford to buy a company with such a high market cap knowing the stock would rocket up on any rumor of an acquisition.
    - claudeganon 7y ago
      That Tesla’s market cap is anywhere close to Toyota’s should give you pause, given the difference in scale and market penetration of the two companies. Look, I’m a firm believer in the “market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent” and especially in our post-2008, QE money printing, Saudi sovereign wealth fund, unmoored-from-reality present. So honestly, who knows how it will all pan out. Maybe we now just live in a hyperreal future where Musk’s marketing shenanigans are materially equivalent to the solid fundamentals and record of a company like Toyota. Could very well be.
      - SEJeff 7y ago
        I'm entirely with you on Tesla's market cap defying reality, but the idea that Toyota is going to buy a company with a market cap that is 75% of its own market cap it utterly ridiculous.
      - bretpiatt 7y ago
        Tesla isn't just an auto manufacturer. It is also a distribution network, a direct dealer network, service network, and fueling station system. They aren't displacing the market opportunity of just Toyota / VAG / etc. They are displacing the market opportunity of much more of the value chain. The Toyota engineer worried about jobs in the supply chain is just the tip of the ice berg. ICE cars are substantially more complex and require much more regular maintenance (all the way down to increased tire and brake wear). Incumbent auto makers not only have to worry about resistance to change upstream, they need to worry about downstream too. [I hold no equity short or long position on Tesla now, have not over the past few years, and do not plan to going forward. My personal investing is outside of public markets in general.]
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
      - erikpukinskis 7y ago
        Tesla is valued according to fundamentals. Look at their growth trajectory and do the math. Sounds like you expect their growth to plateau in the next few years. That’s an fine theory, but it’s not “more fundamentals-based” than the theory it will continue for another 10 years.
- SEJeff 7y ago
  That and the most obvious reality that love the guy or hate him, Tesla isn't Tesla without Elon. Unlike SpaceX, Tesla has to Gwynne Shotwell. It is Musk who drives the engineering (and causes an enormous amount of turnover as a result). It would be a hard sell for a lot of share holders (including Elon and Kimbal Musk) to take the temporary raise in share price of a buyout knowing it would tank the max upside of the company in the long term.
  - erikpukinskis 7y ago
    Disagree, Tesla is over the hump. They need Elon to go to 1T but they can get to Toyota-scale just grinding on the current strategy.
- jshowa3 7y ago
  A result of the cancer that is continuously floating silicon valley companies in perpetuity despite them not making a profit for years. Tesla is overvalued simply by name. Same with Apple. Autonomous driving is still years out and their custom AI chip apparently doesn't do much in the way of helping that yet.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - dmode 7y ago
    Apple is an undervalued stock. Their Price / Revenue ration is <5x
    - jshowa3 7y ago
      And most of their products are overpriced and poorly engineered. They only really make money on phones and branding. I can't think of single reason to buy any of their laptops or desktops.
caconym_ 7y ago
> Tesla hasn’t show any capacity to deliver quality cars at scale, nor provide service to them, whatever their ambitions. Combined with all their SEC problems, it’s reminiscent of Preston Tucker’s car company What universe are you living in? Can't be the same one I'm in ... pretty cool, though, that HN has implemented a multiverse-spanning internet forum.
- claudeganon 7y ago
  > What universe are you living in? Can't be the same one I'm in ... I feel the same when I see people falling for all the marketing hype around Musk and his companies. He’s definitely inherited Jobs’ capacity for reality distortion. But Apple is still chugging on long on that, despite years of quality and design problems, so who know how it will all pan out.
  - caconym_ 7y ago
    If you want to argue that Tesla is overvalued, there are perfectly reasonable arguments to be made in that vein. But comparing them (well on their way to half a million vehicles delivered) in the general sense with a company that folded after selling 50 cars is just absurd, and makes you look like a crank. It overshadows any trace of validity in whatever you're saying. What about SpaceX? Their technical achievements are literally unprecedented, and they are dominating a market that has been the sole domain of an increasingly consolidated handful of incumbent military-industrial giants for the better part of a century. Dismissing those achievements as marketing hype is, again, absurd. I am shaking my head in sad bafflement. Your whole schtick just reads like sour grapes, and why? If you want to have a real conversation about this stuff, you need to get over the edgy negativity.
    - claudeganon 7y ago
      Look, despite all your overwrought labels and name calling, I don’t have as much personally invested in Musk’s success as you do. If he lives up to his hype, great, if he doesn’t, maybe we can move more quickly into an economic reality where people aren’t so invested in cults of personality as being core to valuations. As to Space X, I don’t fall for the notion that their engineering accomplishments are somehow solely dependent on Musk. A lot of really talented people work there and have done some really incredible feats of engineering. If those were regularly attributed to them instead of with Musk, I would have greater respect for the whole enterprise. Whether the direction they’re pushing things, the privatization of space exploration and it’s underlying research, is a good thing, is also a separate conversation that I doubt you or I would agree on.

codeulike 7y ago

Tesla sold 367,500 cars in 2019 (as of mid-January) Tesla's market capitalization is $93 billion, compared to $50 billion for General Motors and $37 billion for Ford No other car company is going to be buying them out unless they crash very very badly

claudeganon 7y ago
Toyota’s market cap is more than twice that of Tesla, around 200 billion, and they sold 10 million cars last year. I do expect Tesla’s is dramatically inflated, I have no idea if Toyota would buy them, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. If Toyota could successfully integrate all the Tesla stuff into their vehicles, it would also have a greater impact than anything Tesla will likely accomplish on their own.
- SEJeff 7y ago
  As of this very moment, the market caps of both are as follows: Toyota: 228.41 Billion Tesla: 144.2 Billion That's time and a half, but not more than twice. I find it stretching credibility to think Toyota could afford to buy a company with such a high market cap knowing the stock would rocket up on any rumor of an acquisition.
  - claudeganon 7y ago
    That Tesla’s market cap is anywhere close to Toyota’s should give you pause, given the difference in scale and market penetration of the two companies. Look, I’m a firm believer in the “market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent” and especially in our post-2008, QE money printing, Saudi sovereign wealth fund, unmoored-from-reality present. So honestly, who knows how it will all pan out. Maybe we now just live in a hyperreal future where Musk’s marketing shenanigans are materially equivalent to the solid fundamentals and record of a company like Toyota. Could very well be.
    - SEJeff 7y ago
      I'm entirely with you on Tesla's market cap defying reality, but the idea that Toyota is going to buy a company with a market cap that is 75% of its own market cap it utterly ridiculous.
    - bretpiatt 7y ago
      Tesla isn't just an auto manufacturer. It is also a distribution network, a direct dealer network, service network, and fueling station system. They aren't displacing the market opportunity of just Toyota / VAG / etc. They are displacing the market opportunity of much more of the value chain. The Toyota engineer worried about jobs in the supply chain is just the tip of the ice berg. ICE cars are substantially more complex and require much more regular maintenance (all the way down to increased tire and brake wear). Incumbent auto makers not only have to worry about resistance to change upstream, they need to worry about downstream too. [I hold no equity short or long position on Tesla now, have not over the past few years, and do not plan to going forward. My personal investing is outside of public markets in general.]
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - erikpukinskis 7y ago
      Tesla is valued according to fundamentals. Look at their growth trajectory and do the math. Sounds like you expect their growth to plateau in the next few years. That’s an fine theory, but it’s not “more fundamentals-based” than the theory it will continue for another 10 years.
SEJeff 7y ago
That and the most obvious reality that love the guy or hate him, Tesla isn't Tesla without Elon. Unlike SpaceX, Tesla has to Gwynne Shotwell. It is Musk who drives the engineering (and causes an enormous amount of turnover as a result). It would be a hard sell for a lot of share holders (including Elon and Kimbal Musk) to take the temporary raise in share price of a buyout knowing it would tank the max upside of the company in the long term.
- erikpukinskis 7y ago
  Disagree, Tesla is over the hump. They need Elon to go to 1T but they can get to Toyota-scale just grinding on the current strategy.
jshowa3 7y ago
A result of the cancer that is continuously floating silicon valley companies in perpetuity despite them not making a profit for years. Tesla is overvalued simply by name. Same with Apple. Autonomous driving is still years out and their custom AI chip apparently doesn't do much in the way of helping that yet.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- dmode 7y ago
  Apple is an undervalued stock. Their Price / Revenue ration is <5x
  - jshowa3 7y ago
    And most of their products are overpriced and poorly engineered. They only really make money on phones and branding. I can't think of single reason to buy any of their laptops or desktops.

caconym_ 7y ago

> Tesla hasn’t show any capacity to deliver quality cars at scale, nor provide service to them, whatever their ambitions. Combined with all their SEC problems, it’s reminiscent of Preston Tucker’s car company What universe are you living in? Can't be the same one I'm in ... pretty cool, though, that HN has implemented a multiverse-spanning internet forum.

claudeganon 7y ago
> What universe are you living in? Can't be the same one I'm in ... I feel the same when I see people falling for all the marketing hype around Musk and his companies. He’s definitely inherited Jobs’ capacity for reality distortion. But Apple is still chugging on long on that, despite years of quality and design problems, so who know how it will all pan out.
- caconym_ 7y ago
  If you want to argue that Tesla is overvalued, there are perfectly reasonable arguments to be made in that vein. But comparing them (well on their way to half a million vehicles delivered) in the general sense with a company that folded after selling 50 cars is just absurd, and makes you look like a crank. It overshadows any trace of validity in whatever you're saying. What about SpaceX? Their technical achievements are literally unprecedented, and they are dominating a market that has been the sole domain of an increasingly consolidated handful of incumbent military-industrial giants for the better part of a century. Dismissing those achievements as marketing hype is, again, absurd. I am shaking my head in sad bafflement. Your whole schtick just reads like sour grapes, and why? If you want to have a real conversation about this stuff, you need to get over the edgy negativity.
  - claudeganon 7y ago
    Look, despite all your overwrought labels and name calling, I don’t have as much personally invested in Musk’s success as you do. If he lives up to his hype, great, if he doesn’t, maybe we can move more quickly into an economic reality where people aren’t so invested in cults of personality as being core to valuations. As to Space X, I don’t fall for the notion that their engineering accomplishments are somehow solely dependent on Musk. A lot of really talented people work there and have done some really incredible feats of engineering. If those were regularly attributed to them instead of with Musk, I would have greater respect for the whole enterprise. Whether the direction they’re pushing things, the privatization of space exploration and it’s underlying research, is a good thing, is also a separate conversation that I doubt you or I would agree on.