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Article praises Tesla's custom AI chip. It is something many criticize as a waste of development resources, while they could have used off-the-shelf components
by soygul 7y ago
Article praises Tesla's custom AI chip. It is something many criticize as a waste of development resources, while they could have used off-the-shelf components for the same task.
Tesla's real advantage is their battery production. No one else can compete with them on battery price or production volume at a similar quality: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/teslas-competitors-play-catch-up-on-electric-batteries.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/teslas-competitors-play-catc...
- wil421 7y agoBattery production seems like a problem that can be solved right now with money. VW and Toyota could partner with a 3rd party (like Tesla and Panasonic) and build factories. Custom silicon seems like a much harder problem for VM/Toyota. Unless a supplier can build something for them I don’t see either company innovating like Tesla. Basically Tesla’s secret sauce is the Tech not the EV components.
- samirm 7y agoBoth problems could be solved with money, but according to the article it seems the giants are refusing to move due to historical relationships (which tesla does not have).
- lyime 7y agoIt’s both. Continued improvements to battery tech will bring the costs down for Tesla which is important for them to do if they want to succeed. Custom hardware and software will also give them cost advantage and help them in the long term.
- cma 7y ago> Unless a supplier can build something for them I don’t see either company innovating like Tesla. Mobileye?
- NotSammyHagar 7y agotesla used mobileye early, then intel bought mobileye so t doesn't use them anymore
- rasz 7y agoTesla doesnt use mobileye after their unauthorized firmware modifications cut drivers head. Mobileye was the party backing out of the deal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/mobileye-ends-partnership-with-tesla-1469544028 https://www.wsj.com/articles/mobileye-ends-partnership-with-... " Mobileye NV said it would no longer provide its computer chips and algorithms to Tesla after a current contract ends due to disagreements about how the technology was deployed. Mobileye provides core technology for Tesla’s Autopilot system, which allows cars to drive themselves in limited conditions."
- aguyfromnb 7y ago>Custom silicon seems like a much harder problem for VM/Toyota What evidence is there that custom silicon has any advantage in the self-driving race, let alone in cost competitiveness?
- Slartie 7y agoNone. And this is exactly the problem: Tesla might have a nice piece of silicon there, but that doesn't solve the problem of still being far, far away from having a working algorithm for level 5 self driving. They have a supercomputer in their cars, but can only run minesweeper on it, so to speak. Their hardware (maybe, at best) solves one of the easy pieces of the self-driving puzzle. It doesn't get them any closer to solving the hard parts. But it sure helps from a marketing perspective, which is kind of important if you want to continue selling a $6000 feature that essentially is just a promise for the future and thus requires buyers to "believe".
- nix0n 7y ago> Custom silicon seems like a much harder problem for VM/Toyota Nvidia built a custom chip for Nintendo, I'm sure they would build one for Toyota or VW.
- kcb 7y agoThe switch chip is an off the shelf Tegra X1.
- SEJeff 7y agoIt isn't just production, but is also the chemistry. Tesla has the lowest amount of cobalt and nickel in their batteries of any battery manufacturer in the world. It makes their batteries cheaper, but also use less rare earth minerals (which are difficult to get ahold of at their scales). Tesla isn't sharing their chemistry, which is demonstrably better than anything LG Chem or Samsung, etc has been able to come up with. As a result, their batteries are actually better. You can scale up manufacturing of inferior batteries, but you still will have an inferior product.
- MagnumOpus 7y ago> Tesla isn't sharing their chemistry Isn't it Panasonic that manufactures the batteries and sells them to Tesla? Can't they sell the same batteries to everyone else too?
- AtlasBarfed 7y agoAnd right now Tesla / Panasonic is maxed out in their battery production (still a scale that all other manufacturers fundamentally don't have the ability to do, much less profitably). If/when Tesla increases battery production beyond its storage and car/semi lines of business, they will probably acquire/merge other car companies on the cheap. The only thing that can eliminate Tesla's advantage is a catch-up solid battery tech that everyone has access to, and even then Tesla will have lots of infrastructure advantages.
- SEJeff 7y agoThat’s not true. Panasonic disagreed with you in their latest earnings call. They’re ramping up for more production. I think Elon has stated they can ramp up 30-50% with the existing space.
- SEJeff 7y agoTesla develops the chemistry and has Panasonic manufacture the cells. Tesla builds the battery packs from Panasonic cells. The intellectual property for the chemistry is 100% Tesla’s and can not be reused by Panasonic for other manufacturers. In places where Panasonic builds batteries for other manufacturers, they use more traditional chemistry that includes more rare earth metals. Tesla’s chemistry is patented and can’t be duplicated. It is one of their several “moats”.
- DarmokJalad1701 7y agoIs it though? When they started development, there was no such chip specialized for NN tasks. NVIDIA chips are more general purpose and uses a lot more power. The FSD chip has an instruction set of around 18 instructions and is highly specialized.
- aguyfromnb 7y ago>Tesla's real advantage is their battery production Battery pack production. Tesla purchases batteries from Panasonic and LG (and thus is susceptible to that supply).
- soygul 7y agoThey also produce the cells (though it might be Panasonic's tech): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Nevada https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Nevada > the production rate of battery cells in the Gigafactory had reached 3.5 million '2170' cells per day.
- mmaurizi 7y agoThe gigafactory is a joint venture with Panasonic. There is literally a line on the floor that denotes the Tesla side and the Panasonic side.
- AtlasBarfed 7y agoTesla will make their own cells soon.
- rebelde 7y agoOh, the article gives numbers! Tesla: $158/kWh Competitors: "more than" $200/kWh Model 3 SR+ has a 54 kWh battery. Tesla advantage = (200 - 158) * 54 = $2268 per car. Yes, an advantage today, but not too bad.
- Vesuvium 7y agoSounds like a lot of money for such a competitive market
- H8crilA 7y agoYeah it is a lot for this market. VW makes around €500 per car, on average. But even that kind of a margin benefit may not justify the current valuation...
- SEJeff 7y agoThe Maxwell Technologies battery technology is allegedly 10x cheaper to manufacture due to no oven or liquids and as a result, and also lighter. Elon says the "holy grail" of batteries is being able to develop an automotive grade battery at <= $100/kWh. The Maxwell tech looks to be below that, but we'll find out specifics on the upcoming Battery Investor day.
- AndrewDucker 7y agoFingers crossed that the rumours are accurate. There are a lot of "coming soon" battery improvements that aren't nearly as impressive when (if) they finally arrive. Be lovely for one to actually live up to them.
- SEJeff 7y agoFor the Tesla Semi and Cybertruck to not be huge loss leaders for Tesla, they have to have made a fundamental breakthrough in battery cost. I'm anxious to see what they come up with.
- smileysteve 7y ago
- onepremise 7y ago> they could have used off-the-shelf components for the same task. They did use off-the-shelf components. They performed poorly and they resulted to developing a custom die with the right components to handle the task of computer vision. They explicitly stated this in multiple interviews. The off-the-shelf solution was crap.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- rthomas6 7y agoWhat was wrong with using FPGAs?
- cdumler 7y agoPower and capability. Custom silicon means they can build the chip with all of the chip's surface being used for things their software needs (ie. extra surface for parallel computing and zero surface for unneeded features). They can also tune the chip with ops/watt in mind. Nvidia has touted their A.I. chips being x10 more powerful, but they also took twice the power to do it [1]. For an electric vehicle that lives on only the charge stored in its batteries, you want to use exactly as much power as you need to get the job done and no more. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19732974 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19732974
- soygul 7y agoAI/ML components change rapidly. What happens if they decide to use an entirely different approach. They develop a new chip? Still seems excessive to develop custom chips for unfinished/experimental tech like self-driving: https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/24/18514308/tesla-full-self-driving-computer-chip-autonomy-day-specs https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/24/18514308/tesla-full-self-...
- Retric 7y agoOnce you cross the 1+ million chip threshold, custom chips stop being such a big deal.
- hef19898 7y agoIsn't Tesla getting batteries from Panasonic? because I had the impression tesla has now a scale advantage.
- soygul 7y agoGigafactor is also producing the battery cells (though it might be Panasonic's tech) as well as the packs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Nevada https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Nevada > the production rate of battery cells in the Gigafactory had reached 3.5 million '2170' cells per day.
- taylodl 7y agoI would argue this is Tesla's real business - battery production. I don't believe they intend to stay in the auto market forever. They're in the market to create demand for quality electric cars, goad the traditional auto makers into making them, and then selling those traditional auto makers the batteries they need to make them work well. I believe that is Tesla's long-term business plan.
- matahwoosh 7y agoBatteries are a commodity, so I doubt Tesla would want to reduce themselves to an OEM and shrink their margins. Their energy business might eventually be bigger than their automotive one, but either way I think they will continue selling vertically integrated products.
- rjsw 7y agoCars are a commodity, the real money is in providing the finance for them.
- pests 7y agoAre batteries a commodity or are we just assuming that?
- NotSammyHagar 7y agobatteries are absolutely not a commodity at this time. every other manufacturer is held back by not enough battery capacity. Even the biggest companies are held back.
- ianai 7y agoYeah, until batteries are traded the same way actual commodities are they are not commodities. A good way to tell whether something is a commodity or not is whether there are strong brands in the space. I can’t go onto a major exchange and speculatively trade lithium battery cells.
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- AtlasBarfed 7y agoOff the shelf parts can beat a custom ASIC? That is news to me. Remember this isn't about the power of the ASIC processing, it is about minimizing the power consumption of the chip so the EV range is affected as little as possible.
- NotSammyHagar 7y agoplus superchargers, engine efficiency, not being held back by supporting legacy car service (aka dealer profit center), no dealers, billions more miles to train their ml models on self driving, customer satisfaction