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> if 2,000 women have mammograms over a period of 10 years, one woman’s life will be saved by a positive diagnosis. Meanwhile 10 healthy women will be treated u

by ag56 7y ago

> if 2,000 women have mammograms over a period of 10 years, one woman’s life will be saved by a positive diagnosis. Meanwhile 10 healthy women will be treated unnecessarily, and more than 200 “will experience important psychological distress ... I have never understood this argument. I’d rather be incorrectly told I had terminal cancer 100 times over, than not be told and... die. You know what’s worse than psychological distress? Dying. You knowing what’s worse than an unnecessary surgery? Dying. This is so obvious, I struggle to understand how this “overdiagnosis” argument even got started.

zzzcpan 7y ago
The problem is nobody is telling you the truth or providing a way to make an informed decision. And not just because they want to take your money, but also because they themselves simply don't know how to make such decisions. They pretty much just try various things on real people to see if they work or that can confirm the hunches they have for further interventions, ignoring consequences of doing any of it. Like in your particular example, every unnecessary surgery actually increases your chances of dying during surgery or sometimes after it, not to mention the chances of crippling you forever, but you don't know what those chances exactly are and worse, you are assuming there isn't such risk, while it's crazy high. So high, that 100 times false positive rate absolutely makes it a no brainer to never undergo such diagnosis, it pretty much guarantees to make things worse for or kill a lot of people. And yet nobody will give you the numbers to make a rational decision.
- nonbel 7y ago
  I met someone who went for a checkup and they convinced him to get a screening colonoscopy. It was clear but a few months later he started having problems and went back. Then they told him he had colon cancer caused by damage to the tissue during the colonoscopy.

by ag56 7y ago

zzzcpan 7y ago

The problem is nobody is telling you the truth or providing a way to make an informed decision. And not just because they want to take your money, but also because they themselves simply don't know how to make such decisions. They pretty much just try various things on real people to see if they work or that can confirm the hunches they have for further interventions, ignoring consequences of doing any of it. Like in your particular example, every unnecessary surgery actually increases your chances of dying during surgery or sometimes after it, not to mention the chances of crippling you forever, but you don't know what those chances exactly are and worse, you are assuming there isn't such risk, while it's crazy high. So high, that 100 times false positive rate absolutely makes it a no brainer to never undergo such diagnosis, it pretty much guarantees to make things worse for or kill a lot of people. And yet nobody will give you the numbers to make a rational decision.

nonbel 7y ago
I met someone who went for a checkup and they convinced him to get a screening colonoscopy. It was clear but a few months later he started having problems and went back. Then they told him he had colon cancer caused by damage to the tissue during the colonoscopy.