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As of the morning, per Global Times, Hubei has 2.67% ratio of deaths to cases. For China outside of Hubei, the ratio is 0.55%. Of course, these are raw figures

As of the morning, per Global Times, Hubei has 2.67% ratio of deaths to cases. For China outside of Hubei, the ratio is 0.55%. Of course, these are raw figures, and the lower ratio outside of Hubei may be simply due to the cases being newer and that more of the current cases will ultimately be fatal. https://www.globaltimes.cn//content/1177737.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn//content/1177737.shtml One of the things needed is a quick and inexpensive test for antibodies to COVID-19 virus in order to establish how many actual infections there are.

logicchains 7y ago
>As of the morning, per Global Times, Hubei has 2.67% ratio of deaths to cases. This is a _confirmed_ deaths to _confirmed_ cases. Unless everyone has been reliably tested, we'd expected the number of actual cases to be higher given it can present with mild-to-no symptoms and such cases are less likely to be tested/identified.
- Merrill 7y ago
  There are also likely to be a number of deaths of patients who were never tested and therefore classified as ordinary pneumonia or flu deaths, rather than COVID-19. So it's not obvious that the long term mortality rate would be less than the raw figures. Another concern is that the ratio of recovered to dead stays distressingly low, although that may reflect a rather long course for the disease of around 3 weeks.
  - logicchains 7y ago
    If we had historical data on pneumonia and flu deaths there, we could compare current rates to that, and if the current rate was significantly higher than usual then it'd be reasonable to count the excess as COVID-19 deaths. I don't know if that data exists though.
    - ericlavigne 7y ago
      An NTD reporter had a similar idea, but focused on total deaths in the city of Wuhan rather than just flu-like deaths. A funeral home staff member said that deaths per day was 4-5 times higher than before this epidemic started, but that only 6% of those deaths were labelled as "confirmed cases" that would count toward the official numbers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYYV1B1lRKY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYYV1B1lRKY Assuming a similar rate of undercounting across other funeral homes in the city, that would put the real death count so far at about 14,000. This is despite extraordinary efforts by the Chinese government to prevent the spread of this virus. (NTD has an axe to grind on this issue, but they have a reputation for factual honesty. I trust NTD's numbers far more than those of the Chinese government. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ntd-tv-new-tang-dynasty/ https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ntd-tv-new-tang-dynasty/ )
usrusr 7y ago
> may be simply due to the cases being newer and that more of the current cases will ultimately be fatal That's the big unknown. "A small percentage drops dead on contact" would be one extreme, the other and much worse would be "almost everybody enters a slow but steady decline towards death which can take months"
- Merrill 7y ago
  Even if you recover from pneumonia, it can take time off your life expectancy. Pneumonia is linked to shorter lifespan: A discussion with Dr. Maurice Mufson https://www.mdlinx.com/infectious-disease/article/883 https://www.mdlinx.com/infectious-disease/article/883
optimiz3 7y ago
Deaths lag infections by several weeks. Death rate will seem artificially low until infections plateau.

logicchains 7y ago

>As of the morning, per Global Times, Hubei has 2.67% ratio of deaths to cases. This is a _confirmed_ deaths to _confirmed_ cases. Unless everyone has been reliably tested, we'd expected the number of actual cases to be higher given it can present with mild-to-no symptoms and such cases are less likely to be tested/identified.

Merrill 7y ago
There are also likely to be a number of deaths of patients who were never tested and therefore classified as ordinary pneumonia or flu deaths, rather than COVID-19. So it's not obvious that the long term mortality rate would be less than the raw figures. Another concern is that the ratio of recovered to dead stays distressingly low, although that may reflect a rather long course for the disease of around 3 weeks.
- logicchains 7y ago
  If we had historical data on pneumonia and flu deaths there, we could compare current rates to that, and if the current rate was significantly higher than usual then it'd be reasonable to count the excess as COVID-19 deaths. I don't know if that data exists though.
  - ericlavigne 7y ago
    An NTD reporter had a similar idea, but focused on total deaths in the city of Wuhan rather than just flu-like deaths. A funeral home staff member said that deaths per day was 4-5 times higher than before this epidemic started, but that only 6% of those deaths were labelled as "confirmed cases" that would count toward the official numbers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYYV1B1lRKY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYYV1B1lRKY Assuming a similar rate of undercounting across other funeral homes in the city, that would put the real death count so far at about 14,000. This is despite extraordinary efforts by the Chinese government to prevent the spread of this virus. (NTD has an axe to grind on this issue, but they have a reputation for factual honesty. I trust NTD's numbers far more than those of the Chinese government. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ntd-tv-new-tang-dynasty/ https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ntd-tv-new-tang-dynasty/ )

usrusr 7y ago

> may be simply due to the cases being newer and that more of the current cases will ultimately be fatal That's the big unknown. "A small percentage drops dead on contact" would be one extreme, the other and much worse would be "almost everybody enters a slow but steady decline towards death which can take months"

Merrill 7y ago
Even if you recover from pneumonia, it can take time off your life expectancy. Pneumonia is linked to shorter lifespan: A discussion with Dr. Maurice Mufson https://www.mdlinx.com/infectious-disease/article/883 https://www.mdlinx.com/infectious-disease/article/883

optimiz3 7y ago

Deaths lag infections by several weeks. Death rate will seem artificially low until infections plateau.