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Funnily, people in the comments make the common mistake of talking of electricity generation when talking of energy. But electricity production only amount to a

by wazoox 7y ago

Funnily, people in the comments make the common mistake of talking of electricity generation when talking of energy. But electricity production only amount to about 25 to 30% of our energy consumption. Most of electricity in the world comes from coal. Coal usage must drop to zero as fast as possible just to keep the climate in a barely liveable state, and we're not heading there, frankly. One very big elephant in the room is why does renewable power looks so cheap at times: it's because production occurs either at fixed times (solar) or random times (wind), so basically renewable power is often produced when it isn't needed therefore worth almost nothing or even less than nothing. That's the main reason why renewable power looks cheap: because as long as we have some other reliable sources to fulfil demand and they really don't amount to much power anyway, their production isn't very useful. Oil OTOH is what propels 99.8% of everything that sails, flies or drives. Oil is what makes globalisation possible. Oil consumption represents 50% more globally than electricity generation, so there's no believable way to replace the first with the second. So far, we have absolutely no idea on how to replace oil at scale. Most probably globalisation as we know it will end not because of evil trumpian protectionism, but because we won't be able to afford it anymore for lack of oil.

Jemm 7y ago
And globalization needs to go away as quickly as possible.
- lidHanteyk 7y ago
  Globalization is an inevitable consequence of better connectivity, faster communication, and tighter logistics. Why would it "go away"? Additionally, why is globalization a bad thing when it comes to energy generation and consumption? The fact that it is possible to sell energy across national borders, for example, makes energy markets more efficient and wastes less energy. Edit: To directly address grandparent, oil made globalization possible. It no longer is needed in order to continue having global communities, just cheapest for shipping.
  - wazoox 7y ago
    Oil still make globalisation possible. Without humongous amounts of moving cargo (did you know that humans now are moving more mass every year than any natural phenomenon?), globalisation is moot. People seem to believe that "services" are somehow entirely disconnected from hardware. There aren't; almost all services are about managing actual physical influxes. If we cease trading goods and people with China in any significant amount, then information influx will dry out in proportion.
SuoDuanDao 7y ago
That is one reason why a lot of serious environmentalists are such ardent fanboys of Tesla - Renewable generation is already extremely cheap, but it has less utility without some adjacent means of storage. It's really energy storage, not sustainable generation, that needs to get cheaper to muddle through the end of fossil fuels. Funding energy storage research by attaching wheels to batteries and selling them above market rates is a pretty genius bit of economic hacking when seen in that context.
- wazoox 7y ago
  As I said renewable generation is only cheap because 1° we use our fossil-fueled infrastructure to build it 2° we have fossil fuels (mostly gas) to make up for its foibles. But we don't have the resources to build up enough batteries and windmills without destroying the climate doing it. The ecological and climate situation is absolutely cataclysmic. Rich people from rich country are far-removed enough from down-to-earth reality to minimize it most of the time, but the truth is that current trends are not only unsustainable but must be reversed as soon and as fast as possible. We're falling towards the ground and accelerating, but as long as we haven't hit the ground we still believe everything's fine and someone will pop a parachute out in time. But all we have are handkerchiefs. I'll remind you that the "climate goals" from the Paris agreement are 1° much too low to actually "save the climate" but at the same time 2° we're far from attaining them! I'll tell you what "serious environmentalism" is: Actually you, we, I, everybody should be terrified of the current situation. Planetary collapse is about to occur about any moment now, but the orchestra's still playing on the upper deck. If you haven't trouble finding sleep about climate and mass extinction at night, then you're probably not having a good grasp of what's happening. It's the heart of winter here and fruit trees are blossoming. There isn't any snow in any ski resorts under 2000m in the Alps; they're hauling snow with helicopters ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEuTKMkgY6A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEuTKMkgY6A ) because it's not even cold enough at night for "snow guns" to work. I'm out there in t-shirt while it should be freezing. It's been the same temperature in Scandinavia last week as is normal in June. Half of the "non-return" points have been reach 40 years sooner than expected in the worst scenarios. 60% of wild animals worldwide have died. 65% to 80% of insects have disappeared in Europe. 88% of freshwater fish worldwide. Only 20% of land worldwide haven't been negatively impacted by human activities yet.
est31 7y ago
There are plenty of deserts etc. that can be filled with solar panels. Those could generate LNG gas which could fuel cars, ships, airplanes, etc, and be used for electricity in times the sun doesn't shine. The only issue here is cost, because you need to put in 3 times as much energy as you get out. So even though solar & wind is cheaper than any generation method now, it has to get 3 times as cheap as alternatives. So the trend of it getting cheaper and cheaper has to continue, but I'm sure we're getting there eventually.

by wazoox 7y ago

Jemm 7y ago

And globalization needs to go away as quickly as possible.

lidHanteyk 7y ago
Globalization is an inevitable consequence of better connectivity, faster communication, and tighter logistics. Why would it "go away"? Additionally, why is globalization a bad thing when it comes to energy generation and consumption? The fact that it is possible to sell energy across national borders, for example, makes energy markets more efficient and wastes less energy. Edit: To directly address grandparent, oil made globalization possible. It no longer is needed in order to continue having global communities, just cheapest for shipping.
- wazoox 7y ago
  Oil still make globalisation possible. Without humongous amounts of moving cargo (did you know that humans now are moving more mass every year than any natural phenomenon?), globalisation is moot. People seem to believe that "services" are somehow entirely disconnected from hardware. There aren't; almost all services are about managing actual physical influxes. If we cease trading goods and people with China in any significant amount, then information influx will dry out in proportion.

SuoDuanDao 7y ago

That is one reason why a lot of serious environmentalists are such ardent fanboys of Tesla - Renewable generation is already extremely cheap, but it has less utility without some adjacent means of storage. It's really energy storage, not sustainable generation, that needs to get cheaper to muddle through the end of fossil fuels. Funding energy storage research by attaching wheels to batteries and selling them above market rates is a pretty genius bit of economic hacking when seen in that context.

wazoox 7y ago
As I said renewable generation is only cheap because 1° we use our fossil-fueled infrastructure to build it 2° we have fossil fuels (mostly gas) to make up for its foibles. But we don't have the resources to build up enough batteries and windmills without destroying the climate doing it. The ecological and climate situation is absolutely cataclysmic. Rich people from rich country are far-removed enough from down-to-earth reality to minimize it most of the time, but the truth is that current trends are not only unsustainable but must be reversed as soon and as fast as possible. We're falling towards the ground and accelerating, but as long as we haven't hit the ground we still believe everything's fine and someone will pop a parachute out in time. But all we have are handkerchiefs. I'll remind you that the "climate goals" from the Paris agreement are 1° much too low to actually "save the climate" but at the same time 2° we're far from attaining them! I'll tell you what "serious environmentalism" is: Actually you, we, I, everybody should be terrified of the current situation. Planetary collapse is about to occur about any moment now, but the orchestra's still playing on the upper deck. If you haven't trouble finding sleep about climate and mass extinction at night, then you're probably not having a good grasp of what's happening. It's the heart of winter here and fruit trees are blossoming. There isn't any snow in any ski resorts under 2000m in the Alps; they're hauling snow with helicopters ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEuTKMkgY6A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEuTKMkgY6A ) because it's not even cold enough at night for "snow guns" to work. I'm out there in t-shirt while it should be freezing. It's been the same temperature in Scandinavia last week as is normal in June. Half of the "non-return" points have been reach 40 years sooner than expected in the worst scenarios. 60% of wild animals worldwide have died. 65% to 80% of insects have disappeared in Europe. 88% of freshwater fish worldwide. Only 20% of land worldwide haven't been negatively impacted by human activities yet.

est31 7y ago

There are plenty of deserts etc. that can be filled with solar panels. Those could generate LNG gas which could fuel cars, ships, airplanes, etc, and be used for electricity in times the sun doesn't shine. The only issue here is cost, because you need to put in 3 times as much energy as you get out. So even though solar & wind is cheaper than any generation method now, it has to get 3 times as cheap as alternatives. So the trend of it getting cheaper and cheaper has to continue, but I'm sure we're getting there eventually.