3 ms·

Why Japan still refuses to test everyone (or at least all Japanese passengers) on that Diamond Princess cruise ship is just strange at best.

yokaze 7y ago
The tests have a true-positive rate of 40%. Could well be, that the tests bring more hassle than they are worth.
deugtniet 7y ago
Testing somebody without symptoms is not accurate. Additionally, the current tests are very expensive and remove capacity for other individuals with symptoms.
pwim 7y ago
According to this article (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/12/national/science-health/japan-covid-19-test-kit-shortage-cruise-ship https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/12/national/scienc...), Japan doesn’t currently have the capacity to test everyone.
usrusr 7y ago
What's the upside? Tests are effectively positive/unknown in absence of truly reliable data about incubation periods etc. You'd treat someone from a high risk group who is tested negative just the same as while untested and without symptoms.
akg_67 7y ago
Japan doesn’t have enough testing capacity. Last week, they could do only about 300 tests each day nationwide and expect to increase to 1,000 by next week. Actually, currently no country has capacity to test everyone on a typical cruise ship. Even China has switched to chest x-rays and classifying anyone showing pneumonia on X-ray to be infected. That cruise ship has put lot of strain on Japanese resources from testing to treatment. Once a persons has been tested positive, preparing hospital to accept that patient is another can of worm.
- lifthrasiir 7y ago
  > Actually, currently no country has capacity to test everyone on a typical cruise ship. According to their official announcement last week [1], South Korean government is currently able to test 3,000 persons per day and will be able to test up to 10,000 per day by the end of February. Even after accounting for false positives this would be enough to test everyone on a cruise ship. [1] http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/tcmBoardView.do?contSeq=352788 http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/tcmBoardView.do?contSeq=352788 "그동안 진단검사 기관을 시도 보건환경연구원에서 민간의료기관으로 확대하였고(2.7), 검사가능 물량도 대폭 늘리고 있으나(1일 200명→3,000명), 2월 말까지는 생산업체, 민간검사기관 등을 확대하여 현재의 3배 수준인 하루 1만 건의 진단검사가 가능하도록 확충할 예정이다."
  - akg_67 7y ago
    I don’t read Korean so cant comment on validity of claim of able to perform tests. It seems very unrealistic. I might be wrong but the translation seems to give impression of count of diagnostic test kit versus capacity to perform actual test per day after samples are collected. Edit: see additional information in reply comment by @lifthrasiir
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - lifthrasiir 7y ago
      You have a good point, but the quoted text directly mentions the test capacity, not the amount of diagnostic kits. For non-Koreans the following is a rough translation (all errors are mine of course): > 그동안 진단검사 기관을 시도 보건환경연구원에서 민간의료기관으로 확대하였고(2.7), 검사가능 물량도 대폭 늘리고 있으나(1일 200명→3,000명), 2월 말까지는 생산업체, 민간검사기관 등을 확대하여 현재의 3배 수준인 하루 1만 건의 진단검사가 가능하도록 확충할 예정이다. > Meanwhile it was made possible to perform tests not only from local Health and Environment Research Institutes but also from private medical institutes as of February 7, and the diagnostic capacity has greatly increased from 200 to 3,000 per day, but we plan to increase it further to 10,000 tests per day by the end of February, through more diagnostic kit producers and more participating private medical institutes. The capacity might seem unrealistic, but the linked website has a live counter for the number of diagnoses in progress ("검사진행") and that reads 558 as of today. And that is not a stale counter; some daily report [1] has a table that reads 2,736 candidates were tested (negative) from 2020-01-03 to 2020-02-11 09:00 AM, and 4,054 were tested to 2020-02-12 09:00 AM, yielding at least 1,300 actual tests completed that day, and the counter remains relatively stable (992 back then). Probably it is true that 3,000/day figure is theoretical, but 1,000/day is very real. [1] http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/tcmBoardView.do?contSeq=352847 http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/tcmBoardView.do?contSeq=352847

yokaze 7y ago

The tests have a true-positive rate of 40%. Could well be, that the tests bring more hassle than they are worth.

deugtniet 7y ago

Testing somebody without symptoms is not accurate. Additionally, the current tests are very expensive and remove capacity for other individuals with symptoms.

pwim 7y ago

According to this article (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/12/national/science-health/japan-covid-19-test-kit-shortage-cruise-ship https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/12/national/scienc...), Japan doesn’t currently have the capacity to test everyone.

usrusr 7y ago

What's the upside? Tests are effectively positive/unknown in absence of truly reliable data about incubation periods etc. You'd treat someone from a high risk group who is tested negative just the same as while untested and without symptoms.

akg_67 7y ago

Japan doesn’t have enough testing capacity. Last week, they could do only about 300 tests each day nationwide and expect to increase to 1,000 by next week. Actually, currently no country has capacity to test everyone on a typical cruise ship. Even China has switched to chest x-rays and classifying anyone showing pneumonia on X-ray to be infected. That cruise ship has put lot of strain on Japanese resources from testing to treatment. Once a persons has been tested positive, preparing hospital to accept that patient is another can of worm.

lifthrasiir 7y ago
> Actually, currently no country has capacity to test everyone on a typical cruise ship. According to their official announcement last week [1], South Korean government is currently able to test 3,000 persons per day and will be able to test up to 10,000 per day by the end of February. Even after accounting for false positives this would be enough to test everyone on a cruise ship. [1] http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/tcmBoardView.do?contSeq=352788 http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/tcmBoardView.do?contSeq=352788 "그동안 진단검사 기관을 시도 보건환경연구원에서 민간의료기관으로 확대하였고(2.7), 검사가능 물량도 대폭 늘리고 있으나(1일 200명→3,000명), 2월 말까지는 생산업체, 민간검사기관 등을 확대하여 현재의 3배 수준인 하루 1만 건의 진단검사가 가능하도록 확충할 예정이다."
- akg_67 7y ago
  I don’t read Korean so cant comment on validity of claim of able to perform tests. It seems very unrealistic. I might be wrong but the translation seems to give impression of count of diagnostic test kit versus capacity to perform actual test per day after samples are collected. Edit: see additional information in reply comment by @lifthrasiir
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - lifthrasiir 7y ago
    You have a good point, but the quoted text directly mentions the test capacity, not the amount of diagnostic kits. For non-Koreans the following is a rough translation (all errors are mine of course): > 그동안 진단검사 기관을 시도 보건환경연구원에서 민간의료기관으로 확대하였고(2.7), 검사가능 물량도 대폭 늘리고 있으나(1일 200명→3,000명), 2월 말까지는 생산업체, 민간검사기관 등을 확대하여 현재의 3배 수준인 하루 1만 건의 진단검사가 가능하도록 확충할 예정이다. > Meanwhile it was made possible to perform tests not only from local Health and Environment Research Institutes but also from private medical institutes as of February 7, and the diagnostic capacity has greatly increased from 200 to 3,000 per day, but we plan to increase it further to 10,000 tests per day by the end of February, through more diagnostic kit producers and more participating private medical institutes. The capacity might seem unrealistic, but the linked website has a live counter for the number of diagnoses in progress ("검사진행") and that reads 558 as of today. And that is not a stale counter; some daily report [1] has a table that reads 2,736 candidates were tested (negative) from 2020-01-03 to 2020-02-11 09:00 AM, and 4,054 were tested to 2020-02-12 09:00 AM, yielding at least 1,300 actual tests completed that day, and the counter remains relatively stable (992 back then). Probably it is true that 3,000/day figure is theoretical, but 1,000/day is very real. [1] http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/tcmBoardView.do?contSeq=352847 http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/tcmBoardView.do?contSeq=352847