3 ms·

Arent those incremental updates? They do not create new affordances for us. Longer flights are more economical but that doesnt enable much that wasnt enabled by

Arent those incremental updates? They do not create new affordances for us. Longer flights are more economical but that doesnt enable much that wasnt enabled by a layover cross-world flight. One could say that the pace of progress has become so slow in so many things that we 've forgotten what it is like to have a breakthrough.

nl 7y ago
But what of the things listed really was a breakthough? If we look at flights, he lists "8 hour Transatlantic flights" as being more important than the cell phone(!!). Is it 8 hours that was the breakthough? What about 9 hours? 10? It seems to me that if there was any real breakthough in that domain (and with travel generally) it's the change from "multi-day travel" to "waste one day in travel" to "I can go for a meeting during the day and be back in the evening". While Concorde technically moved transatlantic travel into the "there and back in a day" bucket, practically it didn't - the timing of the flights meant you had to stay overnight anyway. In that case, there probably aren't any more breakthroughs possible - except cheap, reliable, high quality video calling (which he totally ignores).
- buboard 7y ago
  efficient flights made transpacific flights possible, enabled the entire industry of tourism, and everything that has to do with global business / science . Sure, the cellphone was a major breakthrough as was the internet (and hopefully, remote work). the question is why not more. And we should avoid the Kelvin trap, as we can rarely foresee a breakthrough before it happens
  - nl 7y ago
    I'm not arguing that flights weren't important! But I'd note that international tourism really took off when it became cheap, which was an efficiency improvement and mostly occurred after 1971. And your point about international business made me realise he has ignored all the huge innovations in the payments and international remittance space.
- vl 7y ago
  With flight specifically the progress is not the time, but availability and affordability. Which are beyond anything available before in any point in history.
  - nl 7y ago
    But the drop in prices didn't really happen until airtravel was deregulated in the late 1970s. https://www.travelandleisure.com/airlines-airports/history-of-flight-costs https://www.travelandleisure.com/airlines-airports/history-o...
- marcus_holmes 7y ago
  Also the numbers. 8-hour transatlantic flights were only available for the top 1%, they were ridiculously expensive. Cell phones have made access to information available to the poorest. A tuk-tuk driver in Cambodia can affordably stream YouTube all day long (and they do!). The impact of cell phones in the last 10 years is far larger, and will impact far, far more people, than all of air travel.
s17n 7y ago
You could make that same argument about pretty much everything that happened in the "golden quarter".
redis_mlc 7y ago
I think it's more helpful to think of it as there are physical limits, so we approach an asymptote. Sure, if we had cheap fusion or room-temperature superconductors, that might be game-changing. Barring those, I'll take 1%/year improvement for 100 years or more. For example, you're not going to see supersonic flight again due to the parasitic drag (physics) requiring so much fuel. You could make ICE engines twice as efficient by cutting the car weight in half. Municipalities had this great program before - swap your old fridge or water heater for a free, more efficient one. Maybe have Amazon ship your items to a community mailbox without the brown box? Those are doable things that pay benefits immediately.
- harikb 7y ago
  > Maybe have Amazon ship your items to a community mailbox without the brown box? I ship to an amazon owned pickup location sometimes. I thought this would be enough of a nudge. But no, it still comes in a box. Because everyone walks in downtown, the first thing we all do is top remove the box right there, recycle it, and walk out with whatever small item we bought. Come on, just put the stupid thing in the lockbox. I am standing right on the other side :(
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
Haga 7y ago
The truth is humanity does non incremental breakthroughs only in total war times. As in wars where the leader of a nation has to fear for his her life at conflict end. Everything else breaks some corruption contract, thus threatens reign stability. I mean, look at resistance to solar. Can you imagine if some calinc brought you fusion in a bucket? So, TL, dr.. Nuclear deterrence killed progress. Mr Musks work is a great outlier.

nl 7y ago

But what of the things listed really was a breakthough? If we look at flights, he lists "8 hour Transatlantic flights" as being more important than the cell phone(!!). Is it 8 hours that was the breakthough? What about 9 hours? 10? It seems to me that if there was any real breakthough in that domain (and with travel generally) it's the change from "multi-day travel" to "waste one day in travel" to "I can go for a meeting during the day and be back in the evening". While Concorde technically moved transatlantic travel into the "there and back in a day" bucket, practically it didn't - the timing of the flights meant you had to stay overnight anyway. In that case, there probably aren't any more breakthroughs possible - except cheap, reliable, high quality video calling (which he totally ignores).

buboard 7y ago
efficient flights made transpacific flights possible, enabled the entire industry of tourism, and everything that has to do with global business / science . Sure, the cellphone was a major breakthrough as was the internet (and hopefully, remote work). the question is why not more. And we should avoid the Kelvin trap, as we can rarely foresee a breakthrough before it happens
- nl 7y ago
  I'm not arguing that flights weren't important! But I'd note that international tourism really took off when it became cheap, which was an efficiency improvement and mostly occurred after 1971. And your point about international business made me realise he has ignored all the huge innovations in the payments and international remittance space.
vl 7y ago
With flight specifically the progress is not the time, but availability and affordability. Which are beyond anything available before in any point in history.
- nl 7y ago
  But the drop in prices didn't really happen until airtravel was deregulated in the late 1970s. https://www.travelandleisure.com/airlines-airports/history-of-flight-costs https://www.travelandleisure.com/airlines-airports/history-o...
marcus_holmes 7y ago
Also the numbers. 8-hour transatlantic flights were only available for the top 1%, they were ridiculously expensive. Cell phones have made access to information available to the poorest. A tuk-tuk driver in Cambodia can affordably stream YouTube all day long (and they do!). The impact of cell phones in the last 10 years is far larger, and will impact far, far more people, than all of air travel.

s17n 7y ago

You could make that same argument about pretty much everything that happened in the "golden quarter".

redis_mlc 7y ago

I think it's more helpful to think of it as there are physical limits, so we approach an asymptote. Sure, if we had cheap fusion or room-temperature superconductors, that might be game-changing. Barring those, I'll take 1%/year improvement for 100 years or more. For example, you're not going to see supersonic flight again due to the parasitic drag (physics) requiring so much fuel. You could make ICE engines twice as efficient by cutting the car weight in half. Municipalities had this great program before - swap your old fridge or water heater for a free, more efficient one. Maybe have Amazon ship your items to a community mailbox without the brown box? Those are doable things that pay benefits immediately.

harikb 7y ago
> Maybe have Amazon ship your items to a community mailbox without the brown box? I ship to an amazon owned pickup location sometimes. I thought this would be enough of a nudge. But no, it still comes in a box. Because everyone walks in downtown, the first thing we all do is top remove the box right there, recycle it, and walk out with whatever small item we bought. Come on, just put the stupid thing in the lockbox. I am standing right on the other side :(

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

Haga 7y ago

The truth is humanity does non incremental breakthroughs only in total war times. As in wars where the leader of a nation has to fear for his her life at conflict end. Everything else breaks some corruption contract, thus threatens reign stability. I mean, look at resistance to solar. Can you imagine if some calinc brought you fusion in a bucket? So, TL, dr.. Nuclear deterrence killed progress. Mr Musks work is a great outlier.