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I so hope you're right, but I think this firmly falls into the "This time it's different category". Each bubble has people saying this for various different rea

I so hope you're right, but I think this firmly falls into the "This time it's different category". Each bubble has people saying this for various different reasons. I upvoted but disagree because no amount of explanation will make me digest a 50 billion dollar valuation for facebook. I think people just got used to big numbers because of all the bailouts that happened last year. It's good atleast that people are talking about this though. I wonder how much discussion there was about a possible bubble in 99.

mkr-hn 16y ago
But are the odd billion dollar valuations outliers or representative? How many profitable tech startups are they surrounded by? Is the support for those profits sustainable?
- Kaizyn 16y ago
  Groupon has a $15 billion valuation and it is actually harmful to smaller businesses that use its service.
  - mkr-hn 16y ago
    I've seen less than ten companies mentioned in this whole thread with large valuations like that. That doesn't seem bubbly to me.
    - trotsky 16y ago
      In terms of what makes me feel like we're in a pattern that is similar to '97-'00 it isn't just the very large valuation companies, in fact that isn't much of it at all to me. It seems to be across the entire spectrum - VC's showing up to initial meetings with term sheets, higher initial valuations, very young companies being sold for high amounts, lots of rather underwhelming products/models, accelerating valuation increases and a public and press fascination with the sector. I'm not saying that's conclusive proof at all, but many behaviors seem very familiar.
      - mkr-hn 16y ago
        We could be seeing an aftershock from the last one. It seems like a lot of VCs either are or are working with people who cashed out near the high point of the boom.
  - deleted 16y ago
    [deleted]
  - Kisil 16y ago
    [Citation needed] We've seen some headlines about exploitative sales practices, but fundamentally, Groupon is an advertising company, and tons of small businesses are signing up and willingly paying the prices they charge. Whether or not it's a good decision for each company, it seems a bit harsh to say categorically that it's harmful. How many businesses have blown big dollars on traditional ads with low ROI? Does that make traditional advertising harmful?
- sabat 16y ago
  Precisely: the people insisting that we're in yet another bubble cannot make the distinction between anecdotal and representative companies. Yes, there a handful of companies that may be overvalued. That is not going to take down the economy, no matter what happens. If you think it is: you either weren't around for the real bubble, or you weren't paying attention.
deleted 16y ago
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mkr-hn 16y ago

But are the odd billion dollar valuations outliers or representative? How many profitable tech startups are they surrounded by? Is the support for those profits sustainable?

Kaizyn 16y ago
Groupon has a $15 billion valuation and it is actually harmful to smaller businesses that use its service.
- mkr-hn 16y ago
  I've seen less than ten companies mentioned in this whole thread with large valuations like that. That doesn't seem bubbly to me.
  - trotsky 16y ago
    In terms of what makes me feel like we're in a pattern that is similar to '97-'00 it isn't just the very large valuation companies, in fact that isn't much of it at all to me. It seems to be across the entire spectrum - VC's showing up to initial meetings with term sheets, higher initial valuations, very young companies being sold for high amounts, lots of rather underwhelming products/models, accelerating valuation increases and a public and press fascination with the sector. I'm not saying that's conclusive proof at all, but many behaviors seem very familiar.
    - mkr-hn 16y ago
      We could be seeing an aftershock from the last one. It seems like a lot of VCs either are or are working with people who cashed out near the high point of the boom.
- deleted 16y ago
  [deleted]
- Kisil 16y ago
  [Citation needed] We've seen some headlines about exploitative sales practices, but fundamentally, Groupon is an advertising company, and tons of small businesses are signing up and willingly paying the prices they charge. Whether or not it's a good decision for each company, it seems a bit harsh to say categorically that it's harmful. How many businesses have blown big dollars on traditional ads with low ROI? Does that make traditional advertising harmful?
sabat 16y ago
Precisely: the people insisting that we're in yet another bubble cannot make the distinction between anecdotal and representative companies. Yes, there a handful of companies that may be overvalued. That is not going to take down the economy, no matter what happens. If you think it is: you either weren't around for the real bubble, or you weren't paying attention.

deleted 16y ago

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