5 ms·

On Stagnation, I think the argument is very weak. Compare 1970 to today and we don't have any invention better than running water. Sorry what? If you want to co

On Stagnation, I think the argument is very weak. Compare 1970 to today and we don't have any invention better than running water. Sorry what? If you want to compare centuries go ahead- but I think it's almost inarguable that life has changed much more significantly 1900-2000 than 1800-1900. Information is basically now costless to store, communication with anyone on earth is practically free, and we can literally travel to any point on earth in a matter of days. The idea that we've stagnated just seems frankly absurd to me. Are all those achievements less important than running water? I don't know, running water probably saved more lives - but Alexander Fleming was hardly a slouch in the 1920s. If you want to only compare 1969 to now, I'd like to point out that there's a really obvious problem. We don't have 200 years of hindsight to say "Oh that invention completely changed the world". How are we feeling about Genome sequencing, how about the plethora of green energy generation technologies? How about the Electric Car? The Internet? I just feel like the stagnation assertion is ridiculous.

honestoHeminway 7y ago
It feels like that to the exponential expectations we had.
eaenki 7y ago
When only two guys were (mainly) responsible for (pushing) what you said, namely SJ and EM with the internet and the electric car+energy storage respectively, it’s telling. Besides it’s just three things. There’s absolutely no excuse on why we aren’t flying commercially five times as fast and Flying personal electric vehicles.
- mdonahoe 7y ago
  The excuse is that Society doesn't care that much about moving our meat sacks around 5x faster, when it can move minds around the planet instantly. Instead of building flying cars, we digitized ourselves.
- paulryanrogers 7y ago
  > There’s absolutely no excuse on why we aren’t flying commercially five times as fast and Flying personal electric vehicles. Supersonic is noisy and probably has cost and safety concerns beyond conventional airliners. Physics and engineering have limited electric air travel. There are also those boring issues like the environment and distractions like poverty, healthcare, and warfare getting in the way too.
- caymanjim 7y ago
  The only place you can fly supersonically is over the ocean, because of the noise. It's also more dangerous, and consumes vastly more fuel. The cost per passenger is enormous, and the planes can't scale up large enough to offset it. The technology doesn't exist to make it economical. A big reason why supersonic flight isn't all that important is that the actual in-air flight time is usually under half the total trip time. If I'm flying from New York to London, the whole trip takes about twelve hours door-to-door. It takes more time to travel to the airport, wait around, board, taxi, land, taxi, go through immigration, retrieve luggage, and get to my destination than it does to fly across the Atlantic. Going Concorde-level supersonic would only reduce the whole trip time to about ten hours instead of twelve.
coldtea 7y ago
>but I think it's almost inarguable that life has changed much more significantly 1900-2000 than 1800-1900. Yes, but much more insignificantly 1950-2000 to 1900-1950 -- and slowing down ever since. >Information is basically now costless to store, communication with anyone on earth is practically free, and we can literally travel to any point on earth in a matter of days None of which is particularly exciting, and the latter is probably detrimental to the planet. We could already communicate with anywhere instantly back with the transatlantic telephone. The rest is evolutionary, not revolutionary. Even communication satellites we've had for 50+ years already. Heck, the base internet is 60+ years old, and the web 3 decades.
- mdonahoe 7y ago
  > Yes, but much more insignificantly 1950-2000 to 1900-1950 -- and slowing down ever since. Here are a few more significant innovations since 1950: 0. Search Engines 1. Video Games 2. GPS 3. Medical 3D Imaging (CT/MRI) 4. Genetic Sequencing 5. 3D Printing 6. Autonomous Machines (ground robots, drones) > None of which is particularly exciting You aren't excited about having all of human knowledge in your pocket? Does something have to fundamentally change our understanding of physics for you to get excited?
  - chrisco255 7y ago
    You can search for facts at the touch of a button, but understanding and wisdom remains a time intensive task that requires immense focus. Focus and attention has become a rather rare commodity in this age.
    - wildermuthn 7y ago
      Knowledge is a prerequisite for wisdom. Wisdom is up next.
      - mdonahoe 7y ago
        I feel like you can get a descent amount of wisdom with the right youtube playlist But an interactive tutorial would be better!
agumonkey 7y ago
Honest question : is free a progress ? There's a boulimia in a way where people arent satisfied even with 4G and HD 24/7. There's an absurdity here that makes me think it's not important progress.
- nine_k 7y ago
  Is invention of steel a progress? On one hand, it allows for more deadly weapons. On the other, it allows for much better tools and building stuff impossible otherwise. There's no invention that always does only 100% certified good and cannot be turned to do bad things. Technologies are ethically neutral. For every bored information glutton there are several poor kids who now can read and watch educational stuff which they won't have a chance to ever see 30 years ago.
  - agumonkey 7y ago
    are you sure the poor kids didn't have access to this in books ? and do they really learn something or is it quickly becoming a distraction ? that's what I think but I can be wrong. I heard a few cases of kids learning solid skills on wikipedia, but that's rare
soperj 7y ago
Electric car isn't a recent invention. It was quite popular at the beginning of the 1900s.
cryptica 7y ago
>> Information is basically now costless to store I think this is part of a broader myth that personal data is valuable. Masses of people are predictable, always have been. You don't need data about individuals in order to sell them things. Those people who control the money supply are the ones who decide what we should buy and who we should elect, not the individual. And the more centralized the control of the money supply becomes, the more homogeneous and predictable individuals are going to be and the less valuable personal data becomes. >> we can literally travel to any point on earth in a matter of days The credit for that innovation belongs to 1903 (the Wright Brothers) and most of the key innovations for commercial flights (e.g. allowing each plane to carry many passengers) happened over the next 50 years.

honestoHeminway 7y ago

It feels like that to the exponential expectations we had.

eaenki 7y ago

When only two guys were (mainly) responsible for (pushing) what you said, namely SJ and EM with the internet and the electric car+energy storage respectively, it’s telling. Besides it’s just three things. There’s absolutely no excuse on why we aren’t flying commercially five times as fast and Flying personal electric vehicles.

mdonahoe 7y ago
The excuse is that Society doesn't care that much about moving our meat sacks around 5x faster, when it can move minds around the planet instantly. Instead of building flying cars, we digitized ourselves.
paulryanrogers 7y ago
> There’s absolutely no excuse on why we aren’t flying commercially five times as fast and Flying personal electric vehicles. Supersonic is noisy and probably has cost and safety concerns beyond conventional airliners. Physics and engineering have limited electric air travel. There are also those boring issues like the environment and distractions like poverty, healthcare, and warfare getting in the way too.
caymanjim 7y ago
The only place you can fly supersonically is over the ocean, because of the noise. It's also more dangerous, and consumes vastly more fuel. The cost per passenger is enormous, and the planes can't scale up large enough to offset it. The technology doesn't exist to make it economical. A big reason why supersonic flight isn't all that important is that the actual in-air flight time is usually under half the total trip time. If I'm flying from New York to London, the whole trip takes about twelve hours door-to-door. It takes more time to travel to the airport, wait around, board, taxi, land, taxi, go through immigration, retrieve luggage, and get to my destination than it does to fly across the Atlantic. Going Concorde-level supersonic would only reduce the whole trip time to about ten hours instead of twelve.

coldtea 7y ago

>but I think it's almost inarguable that life has changed much more significantly 1900-2000 than 1800-1900. Yes, but much more insignificantly 1950-2000 to 1900-1950 -- and slowing down ever since. >Information is basically now costless to store, communication with anyone on earth is practically free, and we can literally travel to any point on earth in a matter of days None of which is particularly exciting, and the latter is probably detrimental to the planet. We could already communicate with anywhere instantly back with the transatlantic telephone. The rest is evolutionary, not revolutionary. Even communication satellites we've had for 50+ years already. Heck, the base internet is 60+ years old, and the web 3 decades.

mdonahoe 7y ago
> Yes, but much more insignificantly 1950-2000 to 1900-1950 -- and slowing down ever since. Here are a few more significant innovations since 1950: 0. Search Engines 1. Video Games 2. GPS 3. Medical 3D Imaging (CT/MRI) 4. Genetic Sequencing 5. 3D Printing 6. Autonomous Machines (ground robots, drones) > None of which is particularly exciting You aren't excited about having all of human knowledge in your pocket? Does something have to fundamentally change our understanding of physics for you to get excited?
- chrisco255 7y ago
  You can search for facts at the touch of a button, but understanding and wisdom remains a time intensive task that requires immense focus. Focus and attention has become a rather rare commodity in this age.
  - wildermuthn 7y ago
    Knowledge is a prerequisite for wisdom. Wisdom is up next.
    - mdonahoe 7y ago
      I feel like you can get a descent amount of wisdom with the right youtube playlist But an interactive tutorial would be better!

agumonkey 7y ago

Honest question : is free a progress ? There's a boulimia in a way where people arent satisfied even with 4G and HD 24/7. There's an absurdity here that makes me think it's not important progress.

nine_k 7y ago
Is invention of steel a progress? On one hand, it allows for more deadly weapons. On the other, it allows for much better tools and building stuff impossible otherwise. There's no invention that always does only 100% certified good and cannot be turned to do bad things. Technologies are ethically neutral. For every bored information glutton there are several poor kids who now can read and watch educational stuff which they won't have a chance to ever see 30 years ago.
- agumonkey 7y ago
  are you sure the poor kids didn't have access to this in books ? and do they really learn something or is it quickly becoming a distraction ? that's what I think but I can be wrong. I heard a few cases of kids learning solid skills on wikipedia, but that's rare

soperj 7y ago

Electric car isn't a recent invention. It was quite popular at the beginning of the 1900s.

cryptica 7y ago

>> Information is basically now costless to store I think this is part of a broader myth that personal data is valuable. Masses of people are predictable, always have been. You don't need data about individuals in order to sell them things. Those people who control the money supply are the ones who decide what we should buy and who we should elect, not the individual. And the more centralized the control of the money supply becomes, the more homogeneous and predictable individuals are going to be and the less valuable personal data becomes. >> we can literally travel to any point on earth in a matter of days The credit for that innovation belongs to 1903 (the Wright Brothers) and most of the key innovations for commercial flights (e.g. allowing each plane to carry many passengers) happened over the next 50 years.