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> The coronavirus has caused a lot of setbacks but it's only a short term problem We hope it's only a short term problem. It's far to early to say if this outb
by mantap 7y ago
> The coronavirus has caused a lot of setbacks but it's only a short term problem
We hope it's only a short term problem. It's far to early to say if this outbreak will be contained somehow, if it will continue into the summer, or if it will go away for the summer and come back in the winter again like the flu.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoContainment seems to be working pretty well, if you compare the dynamics of it in China (and on the quarantined cruise ship) to the dynamics of it everywhere else.
- aza05001 7y agoContainment in China is not going well. Other countries containment + quarantining China is going well.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoThat is exactly my point -- other countries are effectively containing the virus to China, and it appears to be working very well.
- mantap 7y agoOnly a minority of countries are doing that. It might work now because most cases are in China. If self-sustaining outbreaks run out of control in Thailand and Singapore, will travellers from there be blocked too? It quickly becomes a game of cat and mouse.
- koheripbal 7y agoThis is unlikely. What is more likely is that all of Chinas poor neighboring countries are simply not reporting cases. North Korea, Mongolia, Nepal, Northern Thailand, North Vietnam, North India, Eastern Russia, will keep this infection going until the next major outbreak next winter.
- totalZero 7y agoWe have no way of evaluating the truth of this claim. China has not been straightforward in its count of infections and fatalities [0]. The government has banned funerals for victims and ordered the cremation of their remains [1]. [0] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/12/coronavirus-cases-being-counted-differently-china-and-death-tolls-have-spiked/4744905002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/12/corona... [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-virus-funeral-order-fuels-upset-death-toll-exceeds-sars-200209010139644.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-virus-funeral-o...
- _-___________-_ 7y agoUnless you think China is overstating the seriousness of it, this supports my point.
- robjan 7y agoEven if it takes longer, it's not permanent. Most components of the SP500 and other indices are not going to be bankrupted by this.
- mantap 7y ago15-20% of people who get this illness require hospitalisation. In the worst case scenario where it infects a billion people... you can do the maths. There is a huge potential for disruption to production and supply chains, especially in developing countries with developing healthcare systems. If this situation gets out of control, it could trigger a global recession. Nobody is buying much from Wuhan for the foreseeable future. Imagine what would happen if it spreads across Asia.