3 ms·
It's an issue. 2% is almost certainly an underestimate, in this case. I read an article the other day which did statistical analysis on various groups of cases
by Filligree 7y ago
It's an issue.
2% is almost certainly an underestimate, in this case. I read an article the other day which did statistical analysis on various groups of cases; it came up with a CFR of 18% for Wuhan (95%, 11% to 80-something), and while the expectation for cases in Singapore is still a little over 2%, that's because the medical system in Singapore isn't overwhelmed.
Reporting that would be an equally bad idea, though. The case fatality ratio only counts infections that are severe enough for the patient to go to hospital and become a case, and we know a large fraction of infections don't. Probably over 90%. Which would push that back down to 2%.
Not that a death rate of 2% of all infected is anything short of apocalyptic, but that's why they're trying so hard to quarantine it.