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I'm not so much worried about how the experts interpret this number behind closed doors, but how everyone else reacts to it. This thread began with someone conf

I'm not so much worried about how the experts interpret this number behind closed doors, but how everyone else reacts to it. This thread began with someone confidently saying that the 2% death rate will decline as we get better data, and using that to argue against the cancellation of the MWC. I've also seen about a million thinkpieces and social media posts telling us that we're crazy to worry about this virus because the flu is so much worse -- and while they're mostly focusing on the fact that the current number of cases is small compared to seasonal flu, they might not be so dismissive if they knew that 2% could be a significant underestimate of the mortality rate. And I suspect that many (most?) countries' quarantine and related policies are affected by public opinion, rather than being a pure function of expert advice.

Filligree 7y ago
It's an issue. 2% is almost certainly an underestimate, in this case. I read an article the other day which did statistical analysis on various groups of cases; it came up with a CFR of 18% for Wuhan (95%, 11% to 80-something), and while the expectation for cases in Singapore is still a little over 2%, that's because the medical system in Singapore isn't overwhelmed. Reporting that would be an equally bad idea, though. The case fatality ratio only counts infections that are severe enough for the patient to go to hospital and become a case, and we know a large fraction of infections don't. Probably over 90%. Which would push that back down to 2%. Not that a death rate of 2% of all infected is anything short of apocalyptic, but that's why they're trying so hard to quarantine it.