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> Everything points to this thing having a mortality similar to the seasonal flu. Can you justify this? I want to be convinced, because at the moment I think i

• cm2187 7y ago
  The mortality measured in China is about 2%. Outside of China, I read it was rather 0.15%. And what I read is the 2% is based on the number of people who show up at the hospital with symptoms and get diagnosed. The doctors think there is a large but unknown population out there, with milder symptoms, who don't show up. Understandly. If you have what looks like a cold, you don't really want to go to the place where everyone is contaminated with the coronavirus. So it looks like 2% is kind of the upper bound but that the actual rate will be lower.
  • koheripbal 7y ago
    This is wrong. The only way to get 0.15 is by dividing dead over total cases - which is not the correct math since most people infected are still ongoing. You have to divide dead over dead+recovered, and outside of China those numbers are still too small to get a reliable number. In China it is 2% outside Wuhan, but inside Wuhan it is over 4% since the medical system has broken down.